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24 Jan 2020
NCC Group : Exiting H120 on an accelerating run rate - Buy

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NCC Group : Exiting H120 on an accelerating run rate - Buy
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 144 2 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 453.9m
- Published:
24 Jan 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Assurance trends. Revenue grew 6.7% with NA +10.6% and UK +6.9%, the latter benefiting from focused hiring post the flat FY19. Sales orders grew 34% with average order value +30% to £30.3k and 66 deals over £250k vs 43 in H119. Combined with Q2 sales growth accelerating to 10% yoy vs 3% in Q1 (hiring benefits, customer spending patterns, better execution) the business is entering H220 with accelerating momentum. Technical Consulting grew 15%, while Risk Management fell 13% due to a realignment along more profitable service lines. Managed Services grew 6% and helped boost the order value.
Assurance profitability. Gross margins were 33.7% (H119 34.3%) with continued investment to increase the technical consultant staff base. We expect H220 margins to benefit from the accelerating top line growth on the back of the strong order book growth which should drive up utilisation of the staff base. The focus on earnings quality in terms of securing reasonable pricing on contracts in the order book should also benefit margins.
Escrow. Sales dipped 2.6% with UK down 2.3% and NA down 7.1%. Gross profits declined to £13.5m (H119 £13.9m). Renewal rates were 87% (vs H119 28%) but, with the new management team on board and sales teams fully integrated, the target is for modest H220 growth which should lead to flat gross profits, forming a base for growth into FY21. EaaS (the Cloud offering) saw £0.7m of orders which is encouraging considering it is in its infancy. The sales pitch and business drivers are clear, although channel pricing plans are evolving.
Forecasts. We cut FY20E PBT by 4%, reflecting £1m extra interest due to IFRS16, an updated share count, tax and a £0.5m operational trim. New estimates: FY20E revenue £271m (unch), PBT £35.8m (from £37.3m), EPS 9.9p (10.4p). FY21E rev £290m (£292m), PBT £40.2m (£41.8m), EPS 11.1p (11.7p).
View. Playing out of the transformation plan creates improved earnings quality and strategic positioning which should support the rating. Longer term strategic options could exist to unlock further value. 270p SoTP-based TP unchanged.