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23 Mar 2020
NCC Group : Near term downgrades, medium story term intact - Buy

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NCC Group : Near term downgrades, medium story term intact - Buy
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 144 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 453.0m
- Published:
23 Mar 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Current trading. While NCC expected it would absorb the impact of Asia Pac Q3 weakness, with this now a global basis and with Q4 NCC’s largest quarter (May y/e), the company will be materially impacted by the current situation.
Near term uncertainty, longer term intact. The group has material B/S capacity so we see this as a period of trading weakness from which the group will recover once the situation stabilises. The market for Cyber Security services will only increase and arguably remote working, if ingrained in the longer term in corporate practices, will require further cyber resilience.
Business model. Around 70% of Technical Consulting (65% of Assurance) is carried out remotely, with potential to move to 100% depending on client agreement. In addition, the managed service business (20% of Assurance) has longer term contracts. While there is this degree of resilience in the business model, the severity of travel restrictions in many areas where the business operates is delaying new projects and limiting on-site client activity. Escrow (45% group EBITA) has longer term contracts, but Verification testing is more project-based so we would expect some impact in this division as well.
Actions. We expect cuts in discretionary spend and potentially looking at areas of flexibility in the workforce. With a sound B/S (£100m facility) we would expect the company to limit material reductions of its billable workforce for as long as possible to keep the business intact for when this situation stabilises. Until the company advises on its dividend approach, we make no change.
Forecasts. Our initial view, which we will refine as the situation become clearer: FY20E sales £239.9m (£270.8m), EBITA £21.3m (£38.3m), EPS 5.2p (9.9p), FY21E sales £215.9m (£290.3m), EBITA £16.8m (£42.2m), EPS 4.1p (11.1p).
Valuation. Looking out to FY22E when we expect more normalised trading and financials, 14x Assurance/10x Escrow EBITA drives our revised 160p SoTP.