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10 Dec 2024
NCC Group : On the journey - Buy

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NCC Group : On the journey - Buy
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 143 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 451.7m
- Published:
10 Dec 2024 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
8 -
Seeing through moving parts. A raft of numbers give full disclosure on the year end change. We roll our estimates to September, so changes to forecasts are not like for like. They also include the profit impact of disposals and us aligning with NCC to include amortisation of intangibles, which together make more than -£15m of profit impact. Underlying business trends are mostly positive, with some market headwinds still around in TAS especially. Cash flow has been strong to Sept 24 at 96.6%, with net debt down £4.3m to £45.3m. The future Crypto disposal will move the group into a comfortable net cash position.
Cyber Security. In four months to Sept 24, revenues grew 7.6%, up from 6% in H2 to May 24, driven by Managed Services, up 45% from prior year sales efforts. We expect it to moderate going forward. TAS fell 3.6% reflecting market headwinds in the lower end areas of the market, with NCC gradually shifting the focus to ‘higher value’ TAS areas. C&I was down 4.6%, reflecting time for the new team to convert pipeline to orders, with the outlook from here being growth, and this will also help fuel leads for MS. The UK was up 16% with MS offsetting TAS weakness, while NA saw the full TAS impact, declining 5.7%. It all sets a base to drive growth, but conscious of the macro we limit underlying growth to c2-3%. We discuss profit forecast overleaf.
Escode. Growth was an impressive 8.2% in the four months to Sept, driven by Verifications and shift in emphasis to larger enterprise accounts. This sets a comfortable continued low- to mid-single digit growth outlook and margins expanding as past investment delivers, with our SoTP seeing £300m value.
View. This is another step forward of the rebuild, with material value still to come as margins and growth expand into the medium term, as the changes take hold. 13x FY26E Cyber EBITDA & £300m Escode gives our 190p SoTP.