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02 Aug 2024
NCC Group : Unearthing gold dust - Buy

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NCC Group : Unearthing gold dust - Buy
NCC Group plc (NCC:LON) | 146 -0.6 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 459.6m
- Published:
02 Aug 2024 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Terms. CR Group Nordic AB will pay NCC c€77m (c£66m) cash with deal completion expected in October 2024. Net proceeds are expected to be c€74m (£62m). The asset contributed revenue and EBITDA of £18m and £4m in the 12 months to May 2024, implying a 16.5x EBITDA multiple. The business had been operating as a standalone entity and as such its disposal will not require any complex carve-outs or impact the capabilities of NCC.
Strategic plans enacted. Simplification is a core plank of the transformation plan. This disposal will allow a more focused Cyber business, aligned across the group’s territories. Having been a standalone entity, it will allow further integration and alignment of the group’s European Cyber business. This alone should prompt value creation in addition to what we see as a highly attractive price. The cash will put NCC’s balance sheet into a material net cash position, leaving it well placed to embark on its future growth plans.
Forecasts. We remove a full year run-rate of Fox Crypto in FY25E and expect £4m reduced interest payments, of which we assume £3m in FY25E. We now have FY25E net cash of £35.3m (pre finance leases) versus our prior £22.6m net debt. FY25E revenue £320.6m (£338.6m) -5%, PBT £33.5m (£34.3m) -2%, EPS 8.3p (8.5p). FY26E revenue £337.1m (£356.2m) -5%, PBT £41.2m (£41.5m) -1%, EPS 10.2p (10.3p) -1%.
View. This is another sign the strategy is working. Yesterday we had organic evidence from the H224 financial run-rate, and now this value crystallisation shows the inorganic value creation plan is also working. We expect further steady incremental positive delivery as the strategy takes hold, supporting our 190p SoTP TP which only factors in c10% FY25E EBITDA margins vs. the c15% aspiration. We use 15x EBITDA for Cyber & 10x for Escode.