Coverage of the equity securities of the following companies has been discontinued. Investors should no longer rely upon our previously published reports, valuation theses or estimates.
Companies: CGNR BIDS ONEV
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This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.
Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD ELCO FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TRMR TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO CYAN ONEV SSY SYME WJA
Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission. | Opera Investments –Reverse Takeover of Kibo Mining’s subsidiary Kibo Gold. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt Cap £6.5m. 23 May. |Eve Sleep— Schedule 1 from the e-commerce focused, direct to consumer European sleep brand. Raising £35m at £1.01. Expected mkt cap £140m. Expected 18 May 2017 | Velocity Composites—Schedule 1. Manufactures advanced carbon fibre and ancillary material kits (predominantly carbon fibre) for use in the production of aircraft. 18 May 2017 admission expected. Raising £14.4m at 85p. Expected mkt cap £30.4m | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May. | AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property | Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe | Spinnaker Opportunities—Seeking RTO. Targeting a single, material acquisition in the energy or industrial sector. Due 17 May. | ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and
Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. | Tufton Oceanic Assets– Extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable further due diligence. | PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May
Companies: ZEG SLN APP POS KBT B90 OCI RTHM CYAN ONEV
Enterprise-focused niche applications of tech illustrate how, while trends appear to be fluctuating away from the current poster children of fintech and the Internet
of Things, in fact these developments are refining appropriate application of existing technologies.
Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD ELCO FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO ONEV SSY SYME WJA
OneView Group is a pioneer of in-store retail technology, with an early to market platform that ensures stores are seamlessly connected to any strand of the omnichannel retail experience allowing these retailers to better engage with their customers. Although OneView has barely scratched the surface of this market opportunity, it already counts blue chip companies such as 02 Telefonica, Travis Perkins and Discount Tire amongst its clients, and has sales partnerships with the tech giants IBM and SAP Hybris. As terrestrial stores replace legacy solutions to catch up with e and m commerce channels, we believe that OneView’s robust pipeline (we understand it to be more than $25m), best in breed product, and exposure to supernormal market growth leaves it well placed to rapidly expand the business as demonstrated by the award of the Company’s largest ever multi-million dollars contract this month.
Companies: Oneview Group
Big Sofa Technologies— Schedule 1 from the b2b technology company providing video analytics at an enterprise level. Seeking to complete RTO of unlisted HubCo investments. Raising £6.1m. Target date 19 December.
ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m.
RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
Creo Medical Group - UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. £20m to be raised on Admission with anticipated market cap of £61.2m
Companies: PYC NWT EAH AHCG HUW C21 RXB CYAN ONEV
OneView Commerce* (ONEV): H1 affected by delays (CORP)
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD EGS ELCO FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMG IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP WAND ZOO ARC ONEV SSY SYME WJA
Venn Life Sciences* (VENN.L) | One View Group (ONEV.L) | Futura Medica (FUM.L) | Symphony Environmental Technologies (SYM.L) | Ten Alps (TAL.L) | CareTech Holdings (CTH.L) | Magnolia Petrolium (MAGP.L) | Versarien (VRS.L) | Stobart Group (STOB.L) | EG Solutions (EGS.L)
Companies: ORPH FUM SYM ZIN CTH VRS STOB EGS ONEV MAGP
Eco Animal Health (EAH.L) | Tern (TERN.L) | A r i a n a R e s o u r c e s (AAU.L) | Taptica International (TAP.L) | Hotel Chocolat (HOTC.L) | P l u t u s P o w e r G e n
(PPG.L) | Feedback (FDBK.L) | GW Pharmaceuticals (GWP.L) | Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO.L) | O n e V i e w G r o u p (ONEV.L)
Companies: EAH TERN AAU TRMR HOTC PPG GWP FDBK AVO ONEV
Full-year results to March likely to miss market expectations
OneView Commerce* (ONEV): Contract delays lead to revenue warning (CORP)
We are pleased to see the global provider of digital retail solutions has delivered an upbeat trading update at its AGM today, revealing a busy couple of months since the prelims in early July. Notably the first hosted customer (one of its largest UK customers as announced at the time of the results) has gone live after a year-long implementation, with rollout across some 250 stores expected to follow. There are high hopes for the hosted service, which will build recurring revenues. Beyond this, the AGM was told revenue growth aspirations are underpinned by a growing pipeline of opportunities from a broadening range of clients, with a focus on the telecoms sector in particular. To take advantage of the opportunities, the sales team has been doubled in the UK and US and the partnerships with IBM and SAP are progressing well. We take the opportunity to reiterate our current forecasts for the company to break into profit in this year to March 2017, along with our 7p price target, on the back of this news.
Avesco* (AVS): Still offering potential (CORP) | Trakm8* (TRAK): Exciting order growth but FX hit anticipated (CORP) | OneView Commerce* (ONEV): Upbeat AGM statement (CORP) | Joules Group (JOUL): Raising price target, maintaining Buy (BUY)
Companies: AVS TRAK JOUL ONEV
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The FY 2020 results are in line with our expectations and reflect the impact of the previously announced switch from large perpetual licences to recurring annual term licences during the year. Despite the COVID strictures, with its large global partnerships, D4t4 continues to close numerous lucrative data gathering and data management contracts with major blue-chips around the world. It is successfully converting a high proportion of its new sales to recurring revenue contracts, but this will sacrifice growth and earnings in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Nevertheless, with growing recurring revenue base, an exciting pipeline and a very strong balance sheet, D4t4 is very well positioned for continued long-term growth and security.
Companies: D4T4 Solutions
CentralNic's CMD gave us new positive insights into the company's investment case. CentralNic's organic growth is stronger than we thought, the Direct division generates high ROI, the monetisation market was shown to be critical to the domain name market, Team Internet's market leadership was further reinforced and acquisition opportunities were shown to be larger than anticipated. These investment views are not reflected in CentralNic's low valuation multiples, in our view.
Companies: Centralnic Group
CentralNic’s capital markets day (CMD) on 24 June 2020 introduced the divisional management team and provided insight on each of the three key segments as they will report in FY20: Indirect (Wholesale, Registry); Monetisation (Team Internet); and Direct (Retail, Corporate). We have picked out what we believe are the four key themes from the CMD: FY20 performance, COVID-19 and seasonality; organic growth; M&A; and, pulling it all together, the benefit of scale. CentralNic continues to trade on an FY20 EV/EBITDA of 9.1x and a P/E of 15.8x, a material discount to its peer group, with our DCF indicating further share price upside. M&A could bring CentralNic’s multiples down further.
GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
Companies: GB Group
Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 19.25p/£64.7m) | Mirada plc* (MIRA.L, 92.5p/£8.2m) | Tern plc* (TERN.L, 10.75p/£29.0m) | Checkit plc (CKT.L, 39.5p/£24.5m)
Companies: BIRD MIRA MIRA TERN CKT
LoopUp has provided an update on trading to coincide with today’s AGM…in essence, the group continues to see activity “materially” above pre-COVID levels, and is confident of exceeding expectations for 2020. We choose to leave our forecasts (that we believe to be roughly in line with consensus estimates) unchanged for now, in advance of further detail likely with a fuller H1 update in early July.
Companies: Loopup Group
FY20 results: inline with guidance
Redcentric has agreed a settlement with the FCA whereby net purchasers of stock between November 2015 and November 2016 will be compensated at the equivalent of approximately 17p per share, payable as preferred as part shares/part cash, all shares, or all cash. To assist in funding the compensation in the event of an all cash settlement, the group has agreed a provisional placing for £5.8m at 110p, in addition to use of treasury shares and existing cash resources. The relief from the shadow of the FCA investigation will be a welcome fillip to business prospects, re-opening opportunities with the private sector and confirming no further action, which would have adversely affected public sector bid prospects, and M&A. With the accompanying trading update, 1Q21 performance in recurring revenue sales orders is mildly ahead of 1Q20, and further cost savings lead us to nudge March FY21 EBITDA expectations from £23.6m to £24.0m (+1%) despite trimming revenue 3% due to a COVID-based slowdown in lower-margin non-recurring revenue. With relief from the uncertainty of the FCA investigation, we lift our target price to 160p, as the group can finally return to business as usual.
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the group has provided a trading update to coincide with its AGM.
Encouragingly, the business continues to perform in line with the trends seen at the time of the full year results in May and the Board anticipates Touchstar will be profitable in the six months to 30 June. Cash generation is again reported to have been good, with ‘significantly higher cash balances' expected to be reported than at the beginning of the year (FY 2019A £850k). The group has drawdown a CBIL of £150,000, which provides additional liquidity alongside its undrawn banking facilities of £300,000. Looking ahead, the order book is a more normal level than last reported at over £500,000 at the end of June, which compares to an exceptionally strong £1.2m at the beginning of the year.
Oxford Metrics has delivered solid 1HMar20 results, with sales of £15.0m (PY: £16.1m) and adj. PBT £0.3m (PY: £1.7). Within this, Yotta demonstrated continued ARR progression (up +15% to £6.8m) while at Vicon, the division added additional bluechip customers, further validating its industry leading position. Progress was, however, held back by lockdown restrictions. £1.1m of expected orders slipped to post period, but have now largely been fulfilled. Had they occurred as expected group sales would have been flat y/y. Looking ahead, CV19 related uncertainty leads us to withdraw forecasts. At this stage we expect disruption to be short-lived. As such – and considering OMG’s persuasive track record - we continue to view the company as a long-term winner in this growth industry.
Companies: Oxford Metrics
The YE trading update reveals that management has actioned its proposed switch from a perpetual licence to a SaaS business during FY 2020. We therefore adjust our forecasts as moving customers from one-off perpetual licence contracts to recurring revenue contracts takes longer to implement and revenue is recognised over a longer period. Despite COVID-19, D4t4 made good progress in Q4 since the January update (with its own raft of contract wins), and several more contracts have been secured on a multi-year ‘as-a-service’ basis, providing additional recurring revenue visibility (now 46% of total sales) over the next three years. Management does not expect any significant interruptions in customer service or its distribution channels. However, actions taken to mitigate the impact of the virus include home working; preserving cash; and securing additional liquidity from the bank if required. The final dividend and FY 2021 forecasts are under review, however the £0.5m share buyback programme continues.
A concerted move into managed services is improving the quality of revenues. Management is targeting the growth in recurring revenues to cover the cash cost base of the company by 2022. This event will mark a material derisking of the investment case and is the pathway to the share price doubling or more over the next 2-3 years. Buy.
Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 15.0p/£50.4m) | Brave Bison Group plc* (BBSN.L, 1.375p/£8.4m) | CML Microsystems plc (CML.L, 258p/£44.2m) | Eckoh plc (ECK.L, 61.5p/£156.2m)
Companies: BIRD BBSN CML ECK
OMG has today announced a “significant multi-year” Alloy contract win with South Gloucestershire Council, this being the company’s cloud-based asset management solution. A differentiating feature of Alloy is the range (or variety) of assets it can handle, and consequently, Alloy will able to provide a single view from which all relevant public infrastructure can be managed and maintained. No numbers are given, but we remind (as at prelims) OMG had a pipeline consistent with adding £1m of ARR in FY20. We therefore assume that this contract contributes to this figure, and so make no changes to either divisional or group forecasts. Similarly, we note that following FY19 (which saw some delayed ‘go-lives’) it is pleasing to see a major contract win announced relatively early in this financial year.