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Downgrading forecasts but positive stance retained
- Published:
08 May 2018 -
Author:
Singer CM Team -
Pages:
3 -
Interim figures on 24 April were in line with the February trading update. However, management signalled a weaker outlook for H2 than the H1 update suggested due to a combination of factors including adverse currency movement, customer losses, weak order intake in early H2 and supplier revenue deferral. We have downgraded our FY 2018 revenue and EBITDA estimates by 9% and 21%, and our corresponding FY 2019 estimates by 11% and 18%. Investor sentiment has been badly dented by the rapid reversal in outlook and given rise to concerns over customer retention and competitive positioning. However, there are enough indications that this weakness is temporal and not structural, and the current valuation suggests significant upside if positive momentum is restored in Q4. We set a new target price of 151p. Buy.