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06 Aug 2020
Mixed H1 - outlook remains uncertain
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Mixed H1 - outlook remains uncertain
ITV PLC (ITV:LON) | 79.1 8.9 16.6% | Mkt Cap: 2,972m
- Published:
06 Aug 2020 -
Author:
Annick Maas -
Pages:
7 -
H1 results saw a beat in EBITA, driven by better cost savings in broadcast
H1''20 total advertising declined 21%, leading to group revenues of GBP1218m. EBITA, at GBP165m, beat expectations, driven by better cost savings in Broadcast and mostly non-recurring overheads (o/w GBP10m recurring). Studios declined 17%, with Studios US up 9% yoy. Direct to Consumer grew despite the emergence of competing streaming offers during lockdown. All in all, this resulted in H1''20 EPS dropping 53% yoy, though it was 26% ahead of consensus thanks to cost-cutting measures.
August ad trends much better and mid-term prospects for Studios promising
Total advertising is guided to be down 23% in July but management suggested August was materially better. No advertising guidance was provided beyond that. Management remained confident that the global content market would grow 3-5% annually in the mid-term, which should be supportive for Studios. The margin target for Studios of 14-16% remains in place but is likely be out of reach for at least the next two years according to management. Programming cost was guided to only GBP960m for 2020, followed by normalisation next year.
Britbox continues to roll out in Australia
Currently Britbox UK is present on 60% of available platforms. It is now also due to be rolled out in Australia, funded by US profits. The first Britbox drama is due to launch in H2. For 2020 management expect BritBox venture losses to be cGBP55-60m.
Minor estimate changes
Having included the various modelling assumptions and H1 numbers into our model, our 2020e EPS barely changes. We take a more cautious view on costs going into 2021 which drives our TP cut today to 68p (from 75p). We reiterate our Neutral rating.