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14 Oct 2025
Goodbody - Rank Group; Thoughts ahead of Q1’26 results/CMD
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Goodbody - Rank Group; Thoughts ahead of Q1’26 results/CMD
Rank Group Plc (RNK:LON) | 93.6 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 438.5m
- Published:
14 Oct 2025 -
Author:
David Brohan -
Pages:
9 -
Land-Based Reforms can add c.£33m to FY28 Adj Operating Profit
FY25 was another good year for Rank, delivering strong NGR and Operating Profit growth. NGR was +9% in the first 6 weeks of FY26. The group will report Q1’26 results on Oct 15th, with a Capital Markets Day to follow on Oct 22nd which will focus on the Grosvenor business and the benefits of the Land-Based Reforms. Ahead of this, we include the expected benefit from the roll out of new gaming machines and sports betting. We expect this to contribute £8.9m, £22.3m, £32.6m to FY26–FY28 Adjusted Operating Profit.
Tax risk likely to drive near term sentiment but looks fully priced in
We estimate every 1% increase in RGD would cost Rank c.£2.6m, while every 1% increase in GBD would cost c.£100k (both pre-mitigation). We see three likely scenarios: (i) rates harmonised at 21%; (ii) RGD to 25%/GBD to 20%; (iii) RGD to 30%; GBD to 25%. These scenarios would impact FY27 Adjusted EBITDA by -0.3% to -11.7%; and FY27 Adjusted EPS by -0.5% to -20.6% (both post 30% mitigation)
Valuation and Investment View
Rank shares were up c.85% YTD to August due to strong business momentum, and confirmation on the Land-Based Reforms. More recently, concerns around UK taxes have been an overhang, with shares -20% from August highs. We expect this tax risk to be the main driver of sentiment in the near term. However, with the likely worst case implying a 21% hit to FY27 Adjusted EPS, we view this risk as well priced in at current levels. We refresh our valuation with the main changes being: (i) inclusion of FY27 benefit from the Land-Based Reforms; and (ii) inclusion of a provision for UK tax risk. Our PT increases to 154p from 140p. As this represents 20% upside, we retain our BUY recommendation.