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09 Feb 2026
Rank Group : A net regulation winner, with clear growth ahead - Buy
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Rank Group : A net regulation winner, with clear growth ahead - Buy
Rank Group Plc (RNK:LON) | 94.2 1.2 1.4% | Mkt Cap: 441.0m
- Published:
09 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Roberta Ciaccia -
Pages:
38 -
A top-tier agile gambling operator. The keys to success for B2C gambling operators include a strong management team, consistent strategy, leading brands, a multi-channel presence, proprietary technology, the capacity to adapt quickly to regulatory changes, and a relatively benign regulatory environment. Rank benefits from all of these, in our view. It has grown its market-leading Grosvenor and Mecca brands profitably in the UK, both land-based and digital, expanded in Spain, and now Portugal – all with financial discipline, low debt and a clear capital allocation policy.
RGD hitting hard, but new casino rules a game-changer. Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) doubling in the UK from April this year means c£46m lower EBIT for Rank, but we expect almost 50% of this to be mitigated. Meanwhile, new rules on gaming machines in casinos mean that Grosvenor (c42% of pre-corporate cost EBIT in 2024/25) should see an unprecedented expansion in revenue and margin, enabling Rank to comfortably reach its >£100m medium-term EBIT target by 2028/29, on our estimates.
Growth not factored into market value. BUY. Rank trades on low single-digit EBITDA ratios, a c25% discount to 10-year average levels and is the cheapest among relevant B2C gambling stocks, despite its better regulatory status and stronger financial position. On a SOTP basis, we value Rank at 132p/share – still a very undemanding c5x EV/EBITDA 2027/28E. We have outlined more optimistic scenarios, including higher yields from machines in casinos and different RGD basis calculations, which suggest 10-20% EPS upside to our 2027/28E forecasts. The market seems to be ignoring the positives including the clear achievable growth path, focusing instead mainly on sector/regulatory risks. We initiate at Buy with a 132p target price.