Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Mar 24

19th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Strong execution continues; shares deep value

Strong LFL’s, sector leading ROCE metrics and excellent cash generation underpin a very strong set of 12m results, with EBITDA doubling to £5.5m. Escape Hunt exceeded expectations, whilst Boom’s progress remains highly positive. Momentum has continued into 2024 with strong current trading (+10% Group LFL). Overall, the business is in a good place. For now we make no EBITDA changes, but a depreciation change around useful life estimates has a positive impact on our PBT projections. We feel the sh

Sector leading update; delivering on all fronts

XP Factory has updated the market on the 12m trading period. It reads very well, with sector leading LFL’s (Boom +29% and Escape Hunt +17%) and a great performance over the all-important Christmas period. This leaves the company on track to meet our 12m and 15m forecasts. In short, the model is intact, management is executing very well and the tenor of today’s update should provide investors with a huge amount of reassurance. We maintain XPF is a high growth story on a cheap rating (4x EV/EBITDA

Assessing the key investment & valuation dynamics

We view XP Factory as a genuine growth stock. In this detailed note we show how it is capitalising on the secular themes driving the competitive socialising sector and generating superior site returns, organic growth and customer reviews. This is further enhanced by a strong set of interims, with an acceleration of LFL over the summer and no change to FY Dec’23 expectations. Prospects of a healthy future is backed by our base case 3-year EBITDA CAGR of 44% on steady state expansion, which rises

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 04/08/2023

4th August 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Strong momentum & execution continues

Momentum at XP Factory has remained strong leading to a positive H1 update. This has been driven by high double-digit LFL performance from both brands and margin progress. New openings are on track, July has been strong and H2 corporate / group bookings are at record levels. This underpins confidence in meeting FY market expectations. We maintain our forecasts and believe the update provides further proof points to XPF’s attractions. Management is executing well, consumer trends remain in favour

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Feb 23

23rd May 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Sector-leading growth and returns

XPF is a fast growing and exciting young company in the experiential leisure sweet spot. We like the structural themes and resilience driving this sub-sector and see XPF as uniquely positioned with two differentiated and growth orientated brands Boom Battle Bar and Escape Hunt. A low capex and opex model drives high returns and fast payback. XPF exited FY22 generating positive adj. EBITDA/FCF and Q1’23 trading is ahead of expectations. Expansion headroom is vast, backed by a favourable property

SHORE CAPITAL - XP Factory+ (XPF, House Stock at 16p)

Topps Group (TPT LN) - Initiation: Market leader trading at cyclical lows

Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global

Pinewood Technologies (PINE LN) - Driving growth in automotive software

Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

HeiQ - Acquisition, placing and trading update

HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a site in Portugal where the company intends to build a HeiQ AeoniQ production facility with a 3,000 tonne per year capacity. To support the acquisition, the company intends to raise c£2.44m via an equity placing, supported by the issue of a c£1.7m (€1.97m) convertible loan note (largely to management) that will convert upon completion of the raise. We see this as an important step in the development programme for HeiQ AeoniQ. Additionally, HeiQ has provided

Borussia Dortmund - Helping itself

Borussia Dortmund’s progress to the semi-final of the Champions League brings a further upgrade to profit guidance for FY24. In addition to helping the financial results of the current year, the relative success of German teams against those of other nations in European competitions this season may ensure the club qualifies for the Champions League next season despite currently being outside the top four of the Bundesliga.

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

PROGRESSIVE: Vertu Motors: Traction control

Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs

Brighton Pier Group - Interim Results

Bright Pier Group’s (BPG) H1 results reflect the highly challenging operating environment, with revenue -9% YoY to £16.2m and Adj EBITDA of £1.4m (H1/22A £3.0m). This decline was driven by weaker consumer demand (falling disposable incomes and low consumer confidence), train strikes and poor weather. Trading in H2 has remained relatively subdued, and as such, we lower our FY23E Adj EBITDA forecasts to £4.2m (from £5.5m). Whilst disappointing, we note that the group remains cash generative and co

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio

Domino's Pizza - Growing the base

Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 1 December 2023

Marks & Spencer+ (MKS, House Stock at 255p) - 7Y FS HSBC UK tie-up– another brick in the wall

HY results - strong growth continues

Pendragon (PDG LN) - Trading strength offsetting cost pressures

Pendragon’s H1 pre-close trading update shows a strong trading performance, with sales and gross profit growth more than offsetting underlying cost inflation and interest rate rises.