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28 Sep 2023
Kitchen-sinking forecasts…and cash is still ok

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Kitchen-sinking forecasts…and cash is still ok
ZOO Digital Group plc (ZOO:LON) | 13.8 -0.1 (-6.8%) | Mkt Cap: 13.5m
- Published:
28 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Singer CM Team -
Pages:
3 -
ZOO today provides an update on H1 trading and as well, the full-year outlook the result being material changes to FY24 forecasts, while we withdraw FY25 estimates. The driving force behind these changes is a combination of factors; more cautionary customer spend (as SVOD platforms are placing greater emphasis on balancing growth and profit) while more recently, protracted industrial action has introduced yet further disruption. As such, H1 revenue is set to be materially down at c.$21m vs. $51m in the comp. Furthermore (and despite encouraging negotiations regarding the US strike action) it now appears unlikely that former order levels will resume in the near-termand as such, we lower FY24e revenue to $44m i.e. prudently assuming no substantial H1/H2 improvement. Notwithstanding this conservative outlook, ZOO has strong visibility of a materially better h-o-h GP performance ($2.5m/$8.5m implied H1/H2 split) thanks to cost reductions totalling $8m on a pro-forma basis - none of which benefitted H1. As such, we focus investors’ attention on H2e EBITDA ($-1.5m) being more reflective than our full-year estimate in our view. In turn we expect this leaner base to provide a foundation for profitable growth in FY25, however given current limited visibility, draw short of providing such an estimate at this stage. Despite this disruption, ZOO remains well capitalised, with $16m of net cash and (our prudent forecast) assumes this moves to $8.0m by y/e. As such, strike action would have to continue to well in FY25 to trouble ZOO’s balance sheet.