An unscheduled but positive update this morning with good news on 5 fronts – full repayment of the CLBIL, new banking facilities, international franchising, strong current trading and site expansion. Margins are being maintained and going into 2022 we cite various factors which should mitigate the well-publicised sector headwinds. We make no forecast changes today but do see further upside risk. Whilst there’s been a strong recovery in the share price since 2020, the valuation is far from full.
Companies: Fulham Shore Plc
Today’s AGM/H1 update is upbeat, with the 6 month performance ahead of management expectations. Trading momentum has strengthened over September with the West End and city centre units recovering strongly over recent weeks. Net, H1 Group revenue is 10% ahead of the 2019 comp with £9.0m of cash generated – an excellent outcome given trading restrictions. Expansion plans are on track, improved banking facilities have been agreed and the introduction of a dividend has been signalled. We upgrade our
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Petershill Partners, Expected Intention to Float on the London Stock Exchange. Petershill Partners, a leading investment group providing bespoke capital and strategic solutions to some of the world's best performing alternative asset management firms. Petershill Partners today comprises minority investments in 19 high-quality Partner-firms, previously held in private funds managed by Goldman Sachs Asset M
Companies: ANR DELT FUL GHE KAT MMX PCF SRC SOLG YGEN
A highly positive update this morning. Trading in recent weeks has accelerated significantly above pre-pandemic levels as normality begins to return to city centres and the West End of London. The opening programme is also firmly on track. We will closely review our forecasts in late September with the AGM/H1 update, but clearly if the current trading momentum is sustained then we see scope for an upgrade. Our central view remains that we are in the early stage of the earnings cycle, with scope
Fulham Shore has hit the spot with a positive trading update, a forceful endorsement of post-pandemic growth opportunities and confirmation of its own resources and ambition. In the eight weeks to 15 August sales showed impressive resilience (up 8%+ on 2019) despite exposure (almost 25% of sites) to subdued city centres (sales down 41%) as well as continued restrictions in the first half of the period. Increasing site availability and extensive savings in rents and capital costs on COVID-19 fall
Fulham Shore is emerging from the pandemic as a sector winner. Current trading is ahead of expectations and there is strong momentum to accelerate expansion to capitalise on a favourable property backdrop. Our illustrative analysis shows that controlled expansion of the estate by 40% towards 125 units in FY25 flows through to a more than doubling of adj. EBITDA vs the pre pandemic high of £8.3m. A 12x FY23 EV/EBITDA would imply a valuation of 22p per share. We initiate with a high conviction pos
Watchstone Group plc (LON:WTG) intends to apply for admission of its Ordinary Shares to trading on the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market operated by the Aquis Stock Exchange (AQSE). It is expected trading will commence on 30 April 2021. Catena Group (CTNA.L) to complete reverse takeover and be renamed Insig AI and is acquiring the remaining shares of Insight Capital Partners. Insight, which is based in the UK, is a data science and machine learning solutions company that provides bespok
Companies: SAR SYM WRES FUL BOIL OEX UNG ALBA ETX OSI
The Fulham Shore Plc (“FUL”) released interim results for the 6m period ended 29 September 2019 in-line with expectations as strength in the Franco Manca portfolio more than offset weather-related contraction at The Real Greek. We make minimal changes to our underlying forecasts and introduce a forecast for 2021. Nine restaurants have been opened so far in this financial year (year end March 2020) and the Company is now guiding a further eight to ten in the next financial year. We note that the
SulNOx Group - The Group has developed a methodology and process capable of emulsifying hydrocarbon fuels such as diesel and heavy fuel oil . By January 2014, following preliminary laboratory testing, SulNOx was in a position to suggest that its products resulted in up to a 50% reduction of Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) and a 90% reduction in particulate matter Due 17 Dec, mkt cap £42.3m.
Companies: SRES K3C SENS MSYS TAL LEX TSG FUL BHRD AUTG
Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited the IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m. Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raising EUR135m with market cap on admission of EUR309.6m, expected 17 July 2019. Roxi Music UK music streaming
Companies: CALL BIRD ABC KDR EMAN BST SCE ZEG SAG FUL
The Fulham Shore Plc (“FUL”) has released a solid trading statement ahead of its March 31st year end. Trading is in-line with market expectations (we forecast full year revenue and EBITDA growth of 12.5% and 1.4% respectively), the plan to increase the rate of restaurant openings in the year to March 2020 is maintained and there is the first indication that a dividend may be paid in the not too distant future. We view the announcement as positive against the back-drop of a causal dining sector u
Against a back-drop of the casual dining sector being under intense pressure, The Fulham Shore Plc (“FUL”) has issued a solid set of interims for the six-month period to the end of September 2018. Revenues of £33.0m and underlying EBITDA of £4.6m were up 19.8% and 1.4% year on year respectively. Margins remain under pressure but cash generation continues with net debt at £8.9m at period end, down from £9.7m a year earlier and down from £12.0m at the end of March 2018. Current trading remains upb
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After a stellar period of trading through the various stages of Covid 19 restrictions, and easings, ScS
has reported a step-back in trading momentum in recent weeks. We await to see if the slower
trading is temporary, reflective of a change in Christmas shopping patterns, or of a more permanent
basis. We leave forecasts unchanged, looking for CPTP of £13.7m and EPS of 26.5p (both IFRS 16
compliant), as such the stock trades on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x for FY22 and 3.4x
Companies: ScS Group plc
Marks & Spencer ("M&S") has developed a ‘building the brands’ component to its overall strategy to transform and so improve its Clothing & Home ("C&H") performance. To date the most notable development in this complementary work to its core brand improvement has been the acquisition of Jaeger, which is now going through the gears of positive change. Alongside wholesale and exclusive collaborations, M&S has now announced that it is acquiring a 25% stake in ‘Nobody's Child’, a fast-growing respons
Companies: Marks and Spencer Group plc
Bivictrix 26.5p £17.5m (BVX.L)
BiVictriX Therapeutics, an emerging biotechnology company applying a novel approach to develop next generation cancer therapies using insights derived from frontline clinical experience announced a collaboration to manufacture BiVictriX's antibody-drug conjugates with Abzena Limited, a partner research organisation for integrated discovery to cGMP manufacturing solutions for biologics. The collaboration will allow BiVictriX to cost-effectively manuf
Companies: CHRT CSSG CCS CYAN FIH MIRI YGEN
STU’s integrated online retail/credit model performed well in H1, even with well-documented headwinds in late Q2. EBITDA margin in the traditionally quieter half was >14%. As outlined in the June CMD, Studio has a clear growth strategy capable of driving EPS to c100p in 3-5 years. However, new customer recruitment has softened short term. On top of cost headwinds, PBT guidance has reduced by c£6m and we have downgraded estimates across all years.
Companies: Studio Retail Group plc
Motorpoint’s interim results for the 6 months to 30th September are record breaking and reflect very well
on the Group’s ability to traverse what remain unusual and volatile market conditions. Whilst said
conditions have undoubtedly supported sales in the nearly new market, availability has been a challenge
which has brought to the fore Motorpoint’s flexible, agile and brand agnostic model, in our view. With H1
22 sales and margin strongly ahead, we are upgrading our FY22 CPTP forecast by c22
Companies: Motorpoint Group Plc
Kingfisher’s Q3 trading sales were slightly ahead of our estimates. The company continued to gain market share and has also made a promising start to Q4 (+0.4% lfl up to 13 November). However, the stock slipped post the results as the FY21/22 outlook upgrade was disappointing, considering the momentum of company’s ytd performance. We do not see any structural issue with the business model and maintain the stock recommendation.
Companies: Kingfisher Plc
Nightcap has added another five cocktail bars to its portfolio through the acquisition of Barrio Familia Ltd (“Barrio”). The £4.94m acquisition price is being funded by £3.63m of existing cash resources and the issue of £1.31m of shares to the vendors at 23p. Barrio made £600k of EBITDA in the first quarter of the year to June 2022, conservatively assuming £1m EBITDA for the full year equates to a 4.9x EBITDA acquisition multiple (or 3.0x our Barrio June 2023 forecast). Funded principally throug
Companies: Nightcap PLC
Compass reported in line FY21 results and a weaker-than-consensus FY22 margin guidance due to short-term headwinds. The expected alleviation of these negatives in H2 22 and the cost reduction programmes should support a nearly-full recovery of margin in FY23. As a result, the FY22 consensus should come in lower but the FY23 consensus should be more optimistic.
Companies: Compass Group PLC
Photo-Me has detailed that the Group’s trading performance was better than expected in May, June and July. This was driven by a stronger than anticipated recovery in photobooth activity, mainly in continental Europe. Guidance for FY 2021 has been raised to sales of c.£210m (previously c.£200m) and adj. PBT of £25-30m (previously £21-24m). We have consequently upgraded our FY 2021E EPS by 22% but leave our FY 2022E forecasts onwards unchanged for now. In effect, we assume the recovery is taking p
Companies: Photo-Me International plc
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Silverwood Brands (AQSE:SLWD) an investing company established to identify investment opportunities including, but not limited to, in the foods, organic food, wellness, lifestyle and leisure sectors, targeting admission has joined the AQSE Growth (Access) raising £1.03m.
French Connection has left the Main Market (Premium) following a takeover.
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Ashtead Tech, subsea equipment rental and solutions provider for the global offshore energy sector to
Companies: ANG HUM KAT KOD SRE VRCI
Altona Rare Earths 12.75p £0.2m (ANR.L)
The exploration company focused on the evaluation and development of Rare Earths mining projects in Africa, has appointed Hilton Banda as a Non-Executive Director with immediate effect. Hilton (aged 35) is a qualified geologist and Group Chairman of Akatswiri Holdings Limited in Malawi, the parent company of a number of resources focused companies including, Akatswiri Rare Earths Pvt Ltd, in which the Company acquired a majority interest, o
Companies: WATR PHE ANR MSYS NTBR PTD
Last week Inchcape held a Capital Markets Day where it communicated the key elements of its Accelerate strategy. Through its two primary growth drivers – distribution excellence (Distribution) and vehicle lifecycle services (VLS) – the company is looking to win distribution market share and capture more of a vehicle’s lifetime value. With these growth pillars, Inchcape aims to deliver mid-to-high single digit profit growth in Distribution and an additional £50m of incremental PBT from VLS withi
Companies: Inchcape plc
Companies: Everyman Media Group PLC
M&B’s has announced a strong closure to FY20/21. The adjusted EPS came in much ahead of both our and market consensus. The publican has also made a good start to FY21/22, with 2.7% lfl growth (vs same period in FY19). In the coming few quarters, we expect M&B to perform ahead of close competitors, in turn gaining market share. Positive stock recommendation is maintained on the UK-based publican.
Companies: Mitchells & Butlers plc