N+1 Singer - Greene King - Low growth = utility type assessment

We are downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold, setting 800p as our new 12m TP and lowering our FY17/FY18 EPS expectations by 7%/10%. This takes us 3%/8% below consensus. Trading has been mixed for c.3 years and the anaemic 3 year EPS CAGR of 3% is uninspiring. Until management can evidence a higher growth rate we feel the group should be viewed as a utility type stock with yield being the main attraction. We prefer Marston’s in the sector and are buyers of it ahead of next weeks YE update.

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 29-06-2016

Greene King (GNK LN) Stronger than anticipated finals | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) Interims in-line, healthy acquisition pipeline | Infrastructure India (IIP LN) Sale of interest in WMP toll road completes | OMG (OMG LN) Appointment of Non-Executive Chairman

Reasonably attractive risk-reward

We are lifting our 12m TP by 14% to 1030p to reflect upgrades post recent interims and stay at Buy. Our positive stance is purely a valuation call as the FY17 spot multiples are attractive given a 3 year EPS CAGR of 10% and a c.4% yield. Our concerns about the Spirit deal furthering GNK’s exposure to wet sales and earnings growth largely being synergy driven have not eased. But we acknowledge the Group’s strong track record, enhanced FCF and an attractive pub estate.

Satisfactory Q3 update

A satisfactory Q3 trading update from Greene King this morning which shows it had a strong Christmas and that the LFL trend has improved in Q3 vs H1. No consensus upgrades envisaged this morning, but in the context of mixed peer updates recently, today’s news should be viewed favourably. We stay at Buy with a 900p Tp.

Growth baked in

Greene King has developed a reputation as a leading pub company combining a consistent record of successful earnings growth and a meaningful dividend yield. Now 80% larger by market cap than its nearest peer, it continues to lead the consolidation of the sector. Its latest acquisition, of Spirit Group, is integrating well, which significantly underpins earnings and dividend growth over the next two years.

Strong interims, we upgrade to Buy

A stronger then anticipated set of interims from Greene King this morning which should be well received by investors. Current trading appears to be good albeit no LFLs are given. There is good news on Spirit synergies and we envisage three year consensus forecast moving up by 3-5% post the results. The shares should react positively today and we move from Hold to a Buy with a 900p TP.

Morning Song

BREWIN DOLPHIN HLDGS (BRW LN) Finals in line, positive margin progress | FINDEL (FDL LN) Is this why Sports Direct bought at 200p? | GREENE KING (GNK LN) Strong interims, we upgrade to Buy | IOMART GROUP (IOM LN) In-line interims; small adjustments to forecasts

In line Q1 trading update

An in line Q1 trading update from Greene King this morning. LFL sales growth of 1.3% at the Greene King Managed estate is an improvement on the 0.6% reported after 8 weeks, but it's the least we expected given a soft Q1 comp of 0.4%. Trading across the rest of the business is mixed in our view and there's nothing tangibly new around Spirit. Overall, the update reinforces our view that despite a macro tailwind, intense competition is proving a hinderance to strong pub-restaurant sector top and bo

Upcoming Q1 update unlikely to be a positive ST catalyst

We use this note to preview the forthcoming Q1 update and formally publish our new forecasts and target price post the Spirit merger. We anticipate another sluggish trading update next week despite soft comps. If proved correct, this will act as a further ST sentiment drag for both GNK and the sector in general. We have mixed views about the Spirit deal and reinforce the pros and cons in this note. The main positive is that the deal has helped lift the 3 year EPS CAGR from 5% to 8%, but we quest

Morning Song

Carclo (CAR LN) Trading in line | Greene King (GNK LN) Upcoming Q1 update unlikely to be a positive ST catalyst | Horizon Discovery Group (HZD LN) Collaboration with Redx Pharma | Lookers (LOOK LN) Benfield acquisition for £87.5m – 12.5% upgrades in 1st full year (FY’16) | Redde (REDD LN) Upgrading PBT, strong growth drives dividend | Summit Therapeutics (SUMM LN) Dr Ralf Rosskamp appointed Chief Medical Officer

Finals in line but current trading continues to disappoint

An inline set of finals this morning from sector stalwart Greene King. The numbers graphically show that the previous year was a difficult one, with PBT -3% and EPS effectively flat. The current year has not got off to a much better start with weak LFL’s reported after 8 weeks despite softer comps. This further brings into sharp focus the lack of momentum in the Greene King managed estate and the impact an increasingly competitive market at the value-end is having. There is no fundamental new ne

Forthcoming finals previewed

The big event in the Leisure sector next week will be Greene Kings finals on 1st July. These will highlight a difficult 12 months with PBT projected to go backwards (we estimate -3%). The industrial and financial logic of the Spirit deal are well understood and the market will be looking for more colour on synergies, brand rationalisation and organic expansion next week. All this could be overshadowed if current trading remains challenging, despite soft comps. We have no huge axe to grid against

Morning Song

Ergomed (ERGO LN) Service offering gaining traction | Greene King (GNK LN) Forthcoming finals previewed

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 28/09/22

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Brewin Dolphin Holdings has left the Main Market. Caretech Holdings has left AIM. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Streaks Gaming plc, a UK-based provider of conversational gaming products intends to join the Standard Segment of the Main Market this autumn. The flotation is expected to value Streaks at approximately £10.2m (pre-money) and will make it the first LSE-listed "pure-play" conversational gaming company. Raising between £5-10m. Independent Living

SHORE CAPITAL - SCS GROUP+ (SCS, HouseStock at 138p) Appointment of Non-Executive Chairman Designate

Hostmore - Better than expected H1; cold reality on the menu

Hostmore delivered a marginally better than expected H1, but it’s not been a great start to H2 and the cold reality is that the consumer environment has worsened, putting pressure on revenue, with cost inflation – especially energy – also rippling through the P&L. Sensibly, Hostmore is slowing its opening programme to protect cash; it’s highly cash generative with plenty of financial headroom, and this should put it in a good position to exploit market opportunities when the time is right. We ar

Morning Note – 21 September 2022

Zeus: Video Games Sector Quarterly review - September 2022

In the September edition of Zeus’ Video Games quarterly report, we review sector M&A activity in 2022 alongside our regular valuation and performance analysis. Total 2022 YTD deal volume across the US and Europe (186) is at elevated levels, already second only to 2021. The total number of video games deals rebounded significantly to 81 in Q3 from 28 in Q2, according to our transaction screening. US average deal value reached a record high of £209.5m (joint with that achieved in 2020) on a re

Cenkos: Brighton Pier Group Plc -- Strong results, challenging outlook

Brighton Pier Group (BPG) performed strongly during the 12 months to June 2022, which resulted in the company beating forecasts that had already been twice upgraded (FY22E Adj EBITDA of £6.5m originally forecast vs £10.8m ultimately achieved). All divisions performed well, with trading boosted by pent-up consumer demand and government support packages. The outlook appears more muted, however, driven by elevated inflation and the widely documented ‘cost-of-living crisis'; consequently, we lower o

SHORE CAPITAL - XP Factory (XPF) - House Stock at 12p - Excellent progress to date in 2022

LIBERUM: City Pub Group* - Balance sheet strong, inflationary downgrades

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 22/09/2022

*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by most recent first *** Alphabetically arranged Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Streaks Gaming plc, a UK-based provider of conversational gaming products intends to join the Standard Segment of the Main Market this autumn. The flotation is expected to value Streaks at approximately £10.2m (pre-money) and will make it the first LSE-listed "pure-play" conversational gaming co

Guild Esports (GILD LN) - Sky - Largest ever sponsorship

Guild has signed its largest sponsorship agreement to date with Sky UK Ltd (Sky). The three-year global sponsorship is one of the largest ever esports sponsorships signed in Europe and is Sky’s first agreement with an esports organisation. We estimate the new contract could drive Guild into cash profitability before payments to Footwork Productions. In addition, the sponsorship’s high profile may accelerate the signing of other deals in Guild’s growing pipeline. Sky follows other premium brands

LIBERUM: Tortilla Mexican Grill* - LFL +19% and roll out on track

Pendragon PLC (PDG LN) - Strong H1 and strategic progress

Pendragon’s interim results show underlying PBT of £33.5m (H1 2021: £35.1m), in line with the numbers flagged in a trading update on 20 July. This is a strong performance given the removal of £8.3m of government support and £7.0m of incremental marketing spend to grow the used car proposition. FY22 trading is expected to be in line with Management’s expectations, despite macro uncertainty and supply shortages, so Zeus headline forecasts are unchanged. We remain comfortable with our 38.6p per sha

LIBERUM: Ten Entertainment Group* - Another upgrade, base demand 30% higher vs pre-Covid

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 11/08/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Unigel Group, intends to join the Aquis Growth Market. Unigel Group is a pioneer in the field of thixotropic gels for the fibre optic cable industry. The Company is also a supplier of laminated steel tapes to the fibre optic cable industry in the US. Thixotropic gels and laminated steel tapes are essential components to the rapidly growing global fibre optic cable market. The Group exports

Significant airport disruptions drove Q3 into the red

easyJet’s Q3 trading update should be defined as mixed as we see severe negative impacts from the airport chaos, but the encouraging traffic figures, good hedging and further improved liquidity and net debt positions are worth noting. We might downgrade further our estimates to a small extent for the current FY and a further cut for the next FY is not impossible as Heathrow warns of a potential passenger cap for summer 2023.