Morning Song

Gresham Technologies (GHT LN) Improving win-rate in H2 and pipeline underpins confidence in full year | Hargreaves Services (HSP LN)Wolf Minerals Update | Hollywood Bowl Group (BOWL LN) Robust YE update | Marston’s (MARS LN) Slightly soft end to the year | Miton Group (MGR LN) Flow momentum continues into Q3 | Sanderson Group (SND LN) Significant progress in FY18, full year revenue and profit slightly ahead | Scapa Group (SCPA LN) In line H1 trading update | Springfield Properties (SPR LN) Site

Morning Song

Augean (AUG LN) Strong H1 PBT growth; material reduction in net debt | Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW LN) Impressive 8% annualised discretionary flows in Q3 | Burford Capital (BUR LN) H1 results – c.15% up on a strong comp – increasing estimates and TP | Earthport (EPO LN) Continued progress with operational changes | EKF Diagnostics (EKF LN) Exclusive agreement with Asahi Kasei expands US products portfolio | IDOX (IDOX LN) Framework in place for improved future performance | Marston’s (MARS LN)

Morning Song

Augean (AUG LN) Consultation on Colt; group trading in line | Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW LN) Solid outturn, margin maintained in H1 | Itaconix (ITX LN) Joint marketing effort defined with AkzoNobel | LiDCO Group (LID LN) Trading update points to increased US traction | Marston’s (MARS LN) Broadly in line interims | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) Earnings momentum continues with results ahead of expectations | Zotefoams (ZTF LN) Placing to invest in (even more) new capacity

Key takeaways from the Consumer reporting season

With a busy reporting season behind us we use this note to take stock. Stepping back we pull out the key themes which emerged across the sub-sectors we actively follow in the consumer space. On balance there was more cause for optimism. This is supportive of our top-down view that there is scope for a better H2 for consumer related stocks as cost headwinds ease and pressure on disposable income moderates. We also take a close look at 7 stocks we actively research and which reported over March an

Morning Song

dotdigital Group (DOTD LN) In line trading update | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) FY17 adj. EBITDA 8% ahead, strong growth in KPIs | Marston’s (MARS LN) Mixed start to the year | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Growth over peak, with promos offset by FS margin+ cost improvements

Mixed start to the year

Marston’s AGM update for 16 weeks shows satisfactory underlying momentum in a difficult sector. However, there has been a small adverse impact on profitability from snow in December (the Group’s managed pubs has a midlands bias, the area most affected area by snow in December). Adjusting for the snow, the Group has traded broadly in line in what is a challenging market. Conversely, there is much better commentary around the wet led Taverns and Leased estate. Brewing appears to have had a good st

N+1 Singer - Marston's - Reassuring tenor to finals; no further downgrades

Having updated the market last month, finals are bang in line at the PBT level, implying y-o-y growth of 3%. EPS of 14.2p has come in a smidgen above our 13.8p. For those investors attracted by the stocks yield / progressive DPS policy there is good news re the DPS, with the final up 1% implying 3% y-o-y growth to 7.5p (vs our 7.6p) – 1.9x cover. We also note NAV of 147p at the year-end. Commentary on current trading is reassuring with LFL growth seen in the last 10 weeks, this is reassuring giv

N+1 Singer - Marston's - YE update not as bad as feared & sensible moves to protect cash and profitability in FY18

Coming into today’s YE update poor sector newsflow over the last 2 months had weighed negatively on the Marston’s share price. In this context a satisfactory update and pro-active steps in the form of cost savings next year should be welcomed by the market today. Whilst trading in the last 10 weeks has been more challenging, due partly to the wet weather, it’s not been a disaster for Marston’s. We do not expect consensus forecasts to change much today, but we are lowering our FY17 EPS by 3% and

N+1 Singer - Morning Song 23-06-2017

ABZA (ABZA) Supported by capacity shortage and CDMO M&A | blur Group (BLUR LN) Update on financing, business plan and current trading | Marston’s (MARS LN) Updated forecasts & view

N+1 Singer - Marston's - Delivering growth and standing out from the pack

Marston’s is our solitary positive stock pick in the sub-sector. Recent finals reflected a year of further strategic, LFL and earnings progress. We believe it is operationally in a strong shape to make further solid progress in FY17, not least as it does not have the acquisition integration or turnaround issues confronting GNK, MAB and RTN. Moreover, it is relatively better positioned to manage the cost headwinds. We forecast 11% TSR returns in FY17 and feel the shares with a 5.5% historical yi

N+1 Singer - Marston's - Solid YE trading update

We expect Marston’s YE trading update to be well received by the market today. It has capped off the FY16 financial year with an in line update, solid LFL sales growth and delivered on the new opening target. This completes a year in which it has successfully navigated a mixed consumer backdrop, wider supply growth challenges and comfortably outperformed the sector on LFL sales growth (2.3% vs the sector at c.1%). We do not envisage making any meaningful changes to our forecasts post today’s upd

PBT beat vs expectation and LFL outperformance

Marston’s has delivered a strong set of interims, beating our PBT forecast by 5%. This translates into double digit EPS growth of 12%. There is further evidence solid LFL outperformance and a positive directional showing from a net- cashflow and BS leverage perspective. With two-third of profits generated in H2 we make no forecast changes at the juncture. Given fears in some quarters of downside risk to numbers going into these results we expect a positive share price reaction, thereby reversing

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Feb 23

21 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Strong FY22 overshadowed by a soft margin outlook

Entain reported estimate-beating FY22 earnings. Net gaming revenue (NGR) increased by 12% in the year, driven by a 66% rise in retail. BetMGM performed strongly and is expected to be EBITDA positive in H2 2023. Entain completed five transactions during the year, further diversifying its revenue base. Underlying EBITDA was up 13%, and adjusted diluted EPS up 15%. However, the guidance was softer than expected and should result in a low single-digit cut to our FY23 estimates.

SHORE CAPITAL - ScS Group+ (SCS, House Stock at 180p)

LIBERUM: Ten Entertainment Group* - Value pricing and innovation driving higher sales density

H1 performance below expectations; strong start to Q3

JDW’s H1 FY23 performance was below our expectations. Compared with FY19, the group’s lfl sales grew by 5% and the adjusted PBT was down 90.9%. Investors cheered the market outperformance during the initial seven weeks of Q3 (+14.9% yoy). The easing of supply chain issues is also a positive. However, the c.10% jump in the stock price jump seems something of an overreaction. Volumes remain under pressure and inflationary/macro-economic headwinds are here to stay, at least in the near-term. We mai

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 Mar 23

13 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Inchcape PLC (INCH LN) - FY22 results – small beat to forecasts

Inchcape’s FY22 results are ahead of Zeus forecasts on most measures, with a strong performance across all regions. Underlying trading is said to be in line with expectations, and we don’t anticipate much change to headline forecasts. We remain comfortable with our medium-term SOTP valuation estimate of 1,436p.

BOTB - Beats forecasts, £6.275m return of capital announced

BOTB prelims were slightly ahead of our forecasts, which we recently raised post the May trading statement. Trading continues to normalise despite the uncertain consumer outlook, driven by constant fine-tuning to changing market conditions. BOTB also declared a 6p/share (£0.565k) final dividend and a £6.275m return of capital via tender offer, equivalent to 66.7p/share; and 72.7p and £6.84m combined. We have increased our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 23% to 53.9p from 43.9p for FY23E, and by 21%

SHORE CAPITAL - Marks & Spencer+ (MKS) - House Stock at 142p - FY23 and FY24 upgrades!

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 22 Mar 23

22 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Pendragon (PDG LN) - PBT slightly ahead, strategy progressing

Pendragon has released FY22 results slightly ahead of Zeus estimates set at the 25 January trading update. Underlying PBT (cont. ops) was £59.1m, ahead of our £57.0m forecast and ahead of the £55.3m we forecast at the release of FY21 results on 23 March 2022. This is despite headwinds from cost inflation and faster than expected interest rate rises. Through the year, the Group has made significant strategic progress in relaunching its omnichannel used car proposition, CarStore, and investing in

ME Group - Positive trading momentum has continued

ME Group has confirmed that the strong recovery seen across Continental Europe in H1 has continued throughout H2. Consumer demand has been stronger for all the Group’s services. The Asian market has remained more subdued due to pandemic restrictions remaining in place for longer than in the Group’s other regions. Updated guidance details revenue is now expected to be between £256m and £262m (our forecast £259m) and EBITDA between £82m and £85m (our forecast £84m). Hence, we make no changes to th

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Feb 23

01 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

No surprises in the FY performance

Kingfisher’s FY22 performance was a mixed bag. The Group’s lfl sales declined by 2.1% yoy, with no surprises in the UK and France businesses. The adjusted PBT of £758m (-20.2% yoy) was 2.3% ahead of the market expectations. The FCF softness was a one-off in our opinion. We expect kingfisher to continue to gain market share in the core segments. The strategy to roll out compact store formats and monetize retail media opportunities are steps in the right direction. No major changes expected in ou

Let the Party begin

GVC has now completed its game-changing acquisition of bwin.party, a deal designed to propel the company into the upper reaches of the online gambling industry in terms of size and profitability. The focus now turns to delivering the €125m of projected cost synergies and re-energising bwin’s sizable asset base to drive sustainable growth. We reintroduce our forecasts and expect GVC’s EBITDA to rise from €51m in 2015 to €236.5m in 2017, with strong underlying cash flows driving rapid debt reducti