PPHE’s H120 results, more notably those from Q220, reflect the full impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on demand, and the substantial progress that management has made in managing the cost base and cash burn. Demand from the leisure sector has returned relatively strongly but the rate of potential recovery in business travel remains uncertain. In recent weeks, the group’s average occupancy level of c 35% is above the 30% required for operational break-even with government support for jobs and business rates, but below the c 40% required in the absence of government support.
Companies: PPHE Hotel Group Limited
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ADMIE Holdings (ADMIE), AJ Lucas Group (AJL), Australis Capital (AUSA), Elbit Medical Technologies (EMTC), Focusrite (TUNE) and PPHE Hotel Group (PPH). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.
The travel bans and quarantines due to COVID-19 have had a significant impact on PPHE since mid-March and are likely to continue to do so. We now expect a deeper and longer downturn than previously and a slower recovery, so we reduce our forecasts for occupancy for FY20, while holding our prior EBITDA margin assumptions reflecting cost cutting and a high level of government support on key costs. We downgrade FY20 revenue by c 32% and EBITDA by c 29%. The shares are trading at a c 54% discount to the last-quoted EPRA NAV of 2,546p per share.
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The trading update, following the update on 12 March 2020, highlights the expected drop in demand due to the COVID-19 virus, and strong actions by management to cut costs and preserve cash in the uncertain environment. We leave our forecasts unchanged following our recent downgrade of EBITDA for FY20e by 14%, but now assume no dividend payment in FY20, following the cut of the proposed final dividend for FY19 of 20p. The shares are trading at a discount of 68% to the EPRA NAV, and the majority of the hotels are freehold assets.
PPHE’s FY19 results were in line with our expectations, with RevPAR outperformance in most markets in which it competes. FY20 looks a more challenging year due to the threats to travel from the outbreak of the coronavirus, as well as tough comparatives. The company has a history of outperforming its peers in good and tough markets and has the benefit of maturing room stock in key markets. In the long term, the development pipeline continues to look promising. We downgrade our EBITDA forecast for FY20 by 14% due to the uncertainty in this environment. The shares are trading at a discount to the reported EPRA NAV of c 50%.
PPHE’s FY19 trading update is solid, meaning that management is confident of meeting expectations. FY19 like-for-like (l-f-l) room revenue growth of 6.3% follows 6.7% growth in FY18. At this stage, typically, detailed commentary on the performance at individual country level is limited. Management has indicated that trading is benefiting from the £100m investment programme, and therefore the key drivers of growth in FY19 were London and the Netherlands. FY20 will continue to benefit from the two recently reopened Park Plaza hotels in the Netherlands. Longer-term growth will be driven by the £300m development pipeline, including key projects such as two art’otels in London and one in New York.
Intention to float by Gemfields Group. No Capital Raise. Currently listed on JSE. (GML:JNB) at circa £122m. The Group's key producing assets, the Kagem emerald mine in Zambia (believed to be the world's single largest producing emerald mine) and the Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique (one of the most significant recently discovered ruby deposits in the world), are both expected to have long mine-lives with potential for expansion. Also owns the Faberge brand. Due Valentines Day 2020.
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Q319 has seen PPHE deliver against a strong comparative (eg like-for-like rate-led RevPAR +4%). Unsurprisingly, given positive market reports (Q319 RevPAR +5%, per STR), London, PPHE’s largest profit source, has been the driver, boosted by maturing properties and the newly repositioned Holmes Hotel. The Netherlands has also traded well, with similar investment payoff, notably at the flagship Victoria Amsterdam. In its busiest period, Croatia defied competition to match record FY18 revenue thanks to high-profile campsite investments. With current-year expectations unchanged ahead of key Q4 trading, longer-term growth is driven by a £300m development pipeline with all hotels in the UK and the Netherlands now open and key projects such as art’otels in London and New York well in hand.
DNEG Limited One of the world's leading digital visual effects, animation and stereo conversion companies for feature film and television.The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019.
Zaim Credit Systems— Zaim currently provides loans of up to Russian Roubles 30,000 (£375) to retail customers through its network of just over 95 sites predominantly in Moscow. Looking to raise £2.6m. Mkt cap £10.9m. Due 4th Nov. 2018 net interest £10.1m, PBT £835k.
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Kaspi.kz, the largest Paym ents, Marketplace and Fintech Ecosystem in Kazakhstan w ith a leading m arket share in each of its key products and services, has postponed its Initial Public Offering due to unfavourable market conditions. Registration document approved for Helios Towers. The Group provides essential network services, flexible infrastructure solutions and reliable power supply to mobile network operators in five African growth economies. Revenue increased 7 per cent. year-on-year to US$191m (H1 2018: US$178m), with Adjusted EBITDA up 15 per cent. year-on-year at US$99m (H1 2018: US$86m) for the six months ended 30 June 2019. Pricing rumoured at 115p to 145p implying valuation of up to $1.8bn
Companies: CCS IKA SGM DDDD SPA PPH SCIR SO4 RQIH QFI
H119 has seen PPHE again deliver both operationally and from a property perspective. Like-for-like EBITDA increased by 6%, driven by London, its main profit source, clearly outperforming a buoyant market and benefiting from maturing room stock. Successful property development is reflected in a further rise in EPRA NAV per share, up 5% to £25.52 yoy (surplus of over £700m to book value) and confirmation that its extensive £300m investment programme is well in hand. Despite tougher H2 comparatives we are maintaining our 2019 EBITDA forecast but for a £5m IFRS 16 uplift. An enhanced contribution from London should make up for relative shortfalls in Croatia (competition) and Netherlands (delayed reopenings).
In keeping with its strong record of asset development, PPHE is actively repositioning itself at the corporate level. The introduction of EPRA reporting highlights the company’s success from a property perspective (EPRA NAV per share of £24.57 at December 2018), while share liquidity and broadening of the investor base should benefit from the recent secondary placing and move to a Premium Listing. Operationally, progress is robust with resilient trading (8% gain in Q1 like-for-like RevPAR and revenue), continued material investment payoff and abundant asset-acquisition opportunities. We believe PPHE's shares offer an attractive way to access hotel property markets, particularly in London and the Netherlands, both in terms of capitalisation yield and a SOTP valuation.
Techniplas –global producer and support services company providing highly engineered and technically complex components, making the supply chain to original equipment manufacturers more efficient. FYDec17 rev $515m.
Diaceutics, a data analytics and implementation services company which services the global pharmaceutical industry, is looking to join AIM late March, offer TBC.
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PPHE has hit the spot yet again with Q4 rate-led RevPAR growth of c 8% (our estimate), which is a marked acceleration on the previous nine months. Driven by a strong holiday season in London, the company’s major profit source, and by encouraging early returns on its key Victoria Amsterdam renovations, this is impressive, given a demanding comparative. On course to meet management’s 2018 expectations (results due c 28 February), PPHE looks also to be coping with Brexit uncertainty (Q119 bookings are good according to management), while longer-term growth reflects a £190m investment programme with key projects in the Netherlands and London well in hand. Expansion remains on the cards, even if management is reluctant to pay up, viz the recent London Grange deal (1,300 rooms) at c £750,000 per key.
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HeiQ is a materials innovation technology company, marketing products that increase the functionality of technical, medical and consumer textiles. The company's core products are at the leading edge of innovating the c$25bn textile chemicals market, while the recently launched antimicrobial technology, HeiQ Viroblock, enables the forward integration into the c$10bn antimicrobial textile market and OTC textile medical devices. The company is grounded on three strategic success factors, materials innovation, mass manufacturing and ingredient brand marketing, which will support the company's ambition to grow its revenues from $30m to $300m in the medium term. HeiQ has listed on London's Main Market via a reverse takeover, raising £20m in new equity. We initiate coverage with a BUY.
Companies: HeiQ PLC
Entain reported strong Q4/FY 20 sales with 7%/1% cc growth respectively (ahead of estimates). The performance was driven by the strong broad-based momentum in online (Q4 20: +41%, FY 20: +28%), which more than offset the decline in retail. The US stood out with 131% growth, pushing FY 20 revenue expectations higher to $175-180m. We will be upgrading our estimates to factor in the stronger than expected performance. In other developments, Jette Nygaard-Andersen was appointed CEO with immediate effect.
Companies: Entain PLC
Escape Hunt (ESC) has conditionally agreed to acquire its French master franchise partner, BGP Escape (BGP). Together with UK sites currently in build, ESC expects BGP to add enough scale for the group to reach positive EBITDA when conditions normalise and new sites have matured. The acquisition is attractively priced at only 1x EBITDA before earnout payments.
Companies: Escape Hunt Plc
Taking into account the adverse impact of the pandemic, the Air Europa acquisition price has been halved to €500m with payment deferred until the sixth anniversary of the acquisition’s completion, which is now scheduled for H2 21.
Companies: International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
Following the transformational acquisition of rival Dominium we are formally initiating on DP Poland. The combination has broadened and strengthened the business model, creating a top 3 market player with a proven new CEO at the helm. Significantly, the enlarged entity will be profitable and self-funding, something the market has been long waiting for. The deal creates a platform to accelerate growth and to become the dominant pizza player in Poland. We identify three main drivers – cost synergies, organic growth and a resumption of the rollout strategy. DP Poland has proven that the Domino’s formula works as well in Poland as it does elsewhere in the world; its mature stores are substantially profitable. The share price will be driven by confidence in delivery of EBITDA growth and cost synergies.
Companies: DP Poland PLC
REACT Group plc (REACT), the specialists in deep cleaning services for customers in the public and private sectors, has announced encouraging full year results, marginally ahead of our increased forecasts and a significant turnaround from the losses reported in previous years. Cash balances at the year-end were also substantially higher than forecast at £1.8m. The new management team has delivered on its promises in what has been a challenging year and we continue to remain very positive on the prospects for the Group. We have introduced forecasts for FY2021 but at this stage, with so much uncertainty we have set our expectations prudently. Nevertheless, the year has started strongly and our projections, supported by a high level of recurring revenue and margin improvement, still anticipates a more than doubling of EBITDA and could be raised as REACT progresses through the year.
Companies: REACT Group Plc
We were bullish about the ongoing effects of strategic/operational initiatives at G4M, seeing forecast upside risk. It has not disappointed. Q3 sales and margin outperformance drive a 30% upgrade, and a shift into net cash. Extensive planning and systems/delivery changes have helped it after Brexit too, with trading stronger than expected so far in Jan. Valuation looks undemanding given upgrade momentum and the discount to lower margin peers.
Companies: Gear4music (Holdings) PLC
M&B’s poor trading performance in Q1 FY20/21 was not a surprise. Lfl revenue in the current quarter is also likely to remain deep in the red. Management is exploring an equity issuance to remain afloat / meet the fixed cost and debt service obligations. After all, the cash coffers are fast depleting and the choice on the table is limited.
Companies: Mitchells & Butlers plc
Air Partner has reported a record H1 performance, with PBT increasing by 250% to £10.5m. This was driven by COVID-19 related work, in particular repatriation flights and transportation of PPE, which offset more challenging trading conditions elsewhere. Air Partner’s diversity has insulated it from the significant COVID-19 impact felt elsewhere in the sector. As expected, COVID related work has slowed down in H2, though there have been some early signs of improvement in Private Jets (number of JetCards sold +50% YoY) and Safety & Security (multiple contract wins in Redline). Given continued subdued demand, gross profit has reduced YoY in Q3 to date, though this was offset by cost initiatives. We reintroduce forecasts for FY21, assuming PBT of £10.5m, which implies break even in H2. The balance sheet remains strong, with net cash of £18m and the Board has proposed an interim dividend of 0.80p.
Companies: Air Partner plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from FERG, AHT, KAZ, LMP GLO, ERM, MCS, STU, SEIT, SOLG, INCE, AEXG, BEG
Companies: AEX GLO SEIT SOLG STU INCE
Dixons’ trading performance in the 10 weeks ended 9 January 2021 was a mixed bag. The strong lfl growth in the first six weeks is in contrast to the subsequent period. Management has expressed it is comfortable with the consensus of the current financial year and reaffirmed its mid-term guidance. Overall, the business remains in good shape despite the adverse impact of frequent lockdowns and the dilutive impact of the growth in e-com. We maintain a positive stance on the stock recommendation.
Companies: Dixons Carphone PLC
Sportech (SPO) supplies betting systems to over 400 clients in 38 countries, including the world’s most widely deployed Tote solution. It has an exclusive licence to operate betting in Connecticut (CT) and is well placed to benefit from eventual legalisation of sports betting in the state. It also has a fast-growing charitable raffle business. The business has been interrupted by COVID-19, but has proved resilient, especially through online channels. There are opportunities to improve margins by transitioning from a mechanical model to a digital one. We would expect these benefits to come through over the next few years.
Companies: Sportech PLC
IAG may have reached an agreement to acquire Air Europa at a lower price (edited as per IAG’s request). The deal should be approved by the Spanish government.
In conjunction with the government’s new tier 4 restrictions, ANG has closed 12 stores. These stores remain operational for ‘call & collect’ though. The remaining estate, websites and DC continue to trade normally, and are geared up to fulfil demand. Positive sales momentum has continued since the update at the start of December, and angling continues to be permitted. The Board therefore reiterates full year guidance of no less than £3.8m EBITDA.
Companies: Angling Direct Plc
MGM resorts international (MGMRI), Entain’s JV partner in the US, has offered to take over the British bookie for ~£8bn ($11bn), with a possible partial cash alternative also on the cards. Following the news, Entain’s stock popped up 30% before closing the year’s first trading session 25% higher.