Hybridan Small Cap Feast 17/06/2022

*A corporate client of Hybridan LLP Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety

Still going strong

Future today released an update highlighting FY’20E adj EBITDA which is trading towards the top-end of consensus (£86.3m-£91.0m; N1Se: £88.5m). Strong performance has been supported by acceleration of the consumer shift to digital, positive cost control and cost synergy extraction from the TI Media acquisition (c.£9m annualised savings delivered so far). Migration of TI Media sites to the Group’s Vanilla platform are underway, whilst Hawk (price comparison platform) has been successfully deploye

Digital transition accelerates

Future’s H1 results highlight the benefits of the Group’s diverse revenue model. Group sales grew 33% y/y to £144.3m (organic: +11%; N1Se: £145.0m), with AOP up 77% to £39.9m (organic: +40%; N1Se: £38.7m). Organic Media sales growth of +21% y/y reflects strong online user growth, with H1 average monthly online users up +26% to 253m, driving eCommerce sales up +68% organic. Online audience growth rapidly accelerated post lockdown (+66% y/y in March) supported by gaming and Live Sciences verticals

TI Media completion and Covid-19 update

Future has completed the acquisition of TI Media (the Group’s largest acquisition to date), following clearance from the Competition and Markets Authority (‘CMA’) and disposal of four small TI Media assets to satisfy competition remedies. The acquisition incorporates 38 new brands strengthening Future’s position in some segments whilst also helping to diversify the Group’s portfolio and offering new online audience creation avenues. Alongside the announcement the Group provides an update on Covi

H1’20 pre-close: cash ahead

Future has announced a pre-close trading update for H1’20 highlighting continued strong online audience growth which is further driving eCommerce and digital advertising revenue streams. Recent weeks have been unprecedented, however the Group continues to see limited impact to online consumer behavioural trends (Feb audience traffic: +2% month on month per ComScore), whilst in Magazine y/y growth in Grocers is partly offsetting declines in travel outlets. Key metrics are holding up well, and the

TI Media CMA update: progressing as expected

Future has announced an update regarding the acquisition of TI Media. The Competition and Markets Authority (‘CMA’) has found that the acquisition of TI Media does not raise competitive concerns subject to the sale of 3 closely competing products. The Group is now in discussions with the CMA on potential remedies to mitigate competitive issues and proceed with the transaction as soon as practicable. The update is in line with our expectations, with a prudent £10m revenue adjustment and no procee

Minimal Covid-19 impact expected

Future Group has announced the outcome of a management review into the potential impact from Covid-19 on forecasts. As we would expect, the conclusion is that there will be no impact to profits in FY’20E or FY’21E, with Covid19 not showing signs of disrupting strong Group underlying online fundamentals. The Group’s events revenue stream (6% of Group revenues, c.2% of profits) has seen two near-term events rescheduled, although these are still forecast to land in the current financial year (July

CMD flags strong near-term opportunities

We take the opportunity after last week’s Capital Markets Day to review key themes touched on by management, and the impact on likely future performance. Takeaways impacting organic growth are: 1) The speed at which migrations/ launches occur with Vanilla is faster than previously expected; 2) Video Content and Intent Marketing opportunities open up new streams; and 3) The Group has more potential to generate value from back catalogue content than previously thought. Organic Media sales growth o

Capital Markets Day – a Future view

Future’s Capital Markets Day yesterday highlighted the Group’s continued success in identifying, developing and monetising new audiences and content and driving strong organic growth. The CTO’s run through of the tech stack presented a platform in complete alignment with Group strategy, able to spin-up new sites impressively quickly, fully integrated with Ecom and Adtech back-ends. The walk-through of an example article life-cycle also shows the strength of RoI potential for individual editorial

Audience growth outperforming expectations

Future’s audience growth metrics have proved stronger than expected in the first 4-months of FY’20E. Management now forecast financial performance to be ‘materially’ ahead of current FY’20E market expectations. We upgrade our FY’20E sales by 4%, and with outperformance indicated to be in higher margin profile eCommerce and digital display advertising areas, we upgrade FY’20E EBITDA by 8%. Given current macro uncertainty we leave FY’21E and FY’22E forecasts broadly unchanged although we flag heig

A big, bold Future

Shareholders yesterday approved the net £140m proposed acquisition of TI Media Group (‘TI Media’). The acquisition will be funded through a mix of debt and equity, and presents a compelling opportunity for Future to leverage its digital platform, ecommerce and content expertise, and global reach (TI Media continuing sales: >70% magazine). Post removal of broker restrictions, we now update forecasts for both TI Media (assumes endApril’20 completion) and Barcroft Studios acquisitions, with an addi

FY’19 organic Media sales up 31% y/y

Future Plc’s FY results revealed the better than consensus growth noted in the trading update last week. Underlying group revenues grew 11% y/y, and 70% on a reported basis to reach £221.5m (FY’18: £130.1m), with organic Media revenue growth of 31% (reported: 134%) to £154.9m (FY’18: £66.3m). EBTIDA margins were 24.6% (FY’18: 15.9%) supported by increased scale and improving product mix. Regionally, US sales grew an organic 40% y/y with US ARPU still at a 38% discount to the UK (FY’18: 48%). EPS

Successful completion of ABB ahead of potential acquisition

Future Plc has announced the completion of an accelerated book build undertaken at 1275p/share (a 6.25% discount to yesterday’s closing price). The announcement of the placing of 8,184,906 (raising £104.4m of gross proceeds) has been made alongside a proposed acquisition of TI Media, the UK-based, print-led consumer magazine and digital publisher. The consideration of £140m for TI Media will also be funded through drawdown of an additional £45m of debt. This acquisition of TI Media is conditiona

Outperformance at Mobile Nations now expected

Future Plc has today announced the achievement of accelerated earn-out payments related to the acquisition of Mobile Nations in March’19. Deferred consideration of $55m (50% cash/ 50% new shares) becomes payable, with management assuming the achievement of an $11.5m EBITDA contribution from Mobile Nation operations to March’20. Mobile Nations management team will continue to work within Future within the newly created Future Labs, tasked with driving additional organic growth by integrating new

Strong pre-close update drives forecast upgrades

Future Plc has announced better than expected performance in its FY’19E pre-close trading update driven by a mix of Amazon Prime Day activity and positive underlying momentum in US operations, supported in part by a strong dollar. Integration of recent acquisitions has further increased capacity, supplementing already positive organic audience growth and benefitting margin performance. Top-line outperformance means full year EBITDA is now expected to be materially ahead of current market expecta

CentralNic (CNIC LN) - Strong, resilient growth

CentralNic issued another positive trading update, leading us to upgrade Adjusted EBITDA again, this time by 4% in both 2022 and 2023. The company continues to grow rapidly (60% organic revenue growth) and margins continue to expand, demonstrating resilience to a slowing economy and online marketing sector. We conservatively raise our 2023 forecasts due solely to base effects, leaving revenue growth at only 6%. As a result, we see the potential for CentralNic’s upgrade cycle to continue into 202

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 12 Jan 23

12 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

WHI Support Services Sector Comment: Challenges and opportunities

Bleak expectations for the UK economy in 2023 anticipate underperformance against other G7 countries based on factors such as (a) the UK's higher than average mortgage rate sensitivity and (b) relative exposure to high gas and energy prices. Some measure of political / economic stability has returned, though this arguably remains a brittle quality, given the scope for dissent within the Conservative party and the unpredictable impacts of industrial action, among a range of factors. All of this s

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Jan 23

20 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

LIBERUM: M&C Saatchi* - FY22 update in line; Board changes

Cenkos: Consumer Q1/23

Key Observations Despite a second successive decline in CPI during the quarter, inflation remained at one of the highest levels in 40 years (10.5% in December) contributing to a winter of discontent, with each day in December facing some form of industrial action. The industrial action materially impacted the consumer sector and provided an insight into the simmering frustration around the decline in real wages of the UK population. There were multiple examples of consumer corporate failures d

SHORE CAPITAL - STV Group+ (STVG, House Stock at 265p)

Next Fifteen Communications Group PLC

Next Fifteen (NFC) has published its scheduled full year trading update for the twelve months ended January 2023. The key headline is that, despite choppy macro waters, trading performance has remained in-line with expectations.

LIBERUM: M&C Saatchi* - Further upgrades as momentum continues to build

CentralNic Group - Unfazed by challenging environment

CentralNic’s FY22 update confirmed accelerating momentum towards the end of the year, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our forecasts, which we raised on 21 December. Its ability to effectively match advertisers with high-intent consumers, alongside global market demand for privacy-safe customer targeting solutions, continues to drive Online Marketing. Economies of scale and acquisitions have strengthened its operating leverage, leading to improved profitability. CentralNic’s attractive

LIBERUM: M&C Saatchi* - Reinstating coverage with a BUY

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 21/06/2022

Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Visum Technologies seeking admission to The AQSE Growth Market. The Company's business is to own and operate an "on-ride" video and photographic camera system that it sells and/or licenses to customers (being theme parks, ride manufacturers, souvenir imaging providers, and other leisure operators). Due 30 June. LifeSafe Holdings, a fire safety technology business with innovative fire safety products, intends

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 13/09/2022

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: Avast Plc has left the Premium Segment of the Main Market. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Fintech Asia, an investment company established to acquire businesses in the Fintech sector, primarily targeting the Asia-Pacific region, intends to join the Standard Segment of the Main Market. The Company has raised £1.455m through the placing of 3,010,000 ordinary shares of no par value, with net proceeds of £841,845. Expected 15 September. Ikigai

Cenkos: XLMedia Plc -- A material beat in FY21E

Adj EBITDA will be around 20% higher than forecast in FY21E. This is a decent 'beat' and we attribute it to a rise in underlying operating margins from the transformation programme and favourable business mix from US sports. Not all the benefits from the transformation programme are yet visible in earnings but they are already compensating for much of the weakness possible in Casino in FY22E.

Cenkos: XLMedia Plc -- US Sports Tailwinds Continue

XLMedia has released its interim results for the period ending 30 June 2022 and is in-line with the trading update released in July. US Sports remains the highlight for XLM and is making up an ever-increasing portion of revenues. We are taking the opportunity to conservatively adjust our forecasts to account for revenue mix from the media partnership model. XLM's valuation remains compelling, trading on an FY2 EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.1x versus peers on 6.0x.