Inspiration Healthcare has provided a strong Q1/21E trading update noting revenues up by 27% versus Q1/20A. Importantly this revenue growth does not include any sales for the supply of ventilators to the NHS as announced in March, which could contribute in Q2/21E. The Company notes a strong order book, before the exceptional NHS orders, and considerable interest in its products. This early in the fiscal year we are conservatively maintaining our forecasts, though continued performance will compel us to upgrade our estimates. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Companies: Inspiration Healthcare Group
Caribbean Investment Holdings. Incorporated in Belize . CIHL primarily operates financial services businesses through its subsidiaries The Belize Bank Limited and Belize Bank International Limited, both located in Belize and international corporate services through Belize Corporate Services Limited. CIHL shares are also traded on the Bermuda Stock Exchange. Lord Ashcroft holds 75%. No capital raise. Due 28 April. £36m . 2019 net profit US$ 10.7m
Companies: PEG SDX N4P TEK LND SCLP IHC SWG XSG ZAM
Inspiration Healthcare has reported its results for the year ending 31 January 2020. Revenues for the year were £17.8m, up 15% YoY supported by strong 12% organic growth. Gross margin improved to 48.2% from 45.5% driven by product mix and the acquisition of Viomedex and adjusted operating profit was up 24% YoY to £1.5m. The company closed the year with cash of £4.5m. Fiscal 2020 was a successful year for the company, delivering strong financials, the acquisition of Viomedex and product development progress. Post year end, Inspiration Heathcare has announced it is proactively sourcing ventilators to supply to the NHS. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Companies: TEK AVCT D4T4 DGOC IHC SDX PPH ENET NTOG SFE
Following the previous announcement on 16 March 2020, Inspiration Healthcare has announced additional orders from the NHS to supply medical equipment and ventilators with a combined total value of over £4m. This is clearly a hugely significant announcement for the company and highlights the close relationships the Inspiration team has developed with both the NHS and its commercial partners. The COVID-19 pandemic has created a fast-changing environment in which Inspiration Healthcare is well positioned to support the efforts of the NHS, however this same environment creates factors outside of IHC's control and therefore we maintain a conservative approach with our forecasts. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Abal Group (formerly on AIM) to relist as Supply@Me, a growing innovative "inventory monetisation" platform, having originated more than EUR300m of prospective "inventory monetisation deals" in its first six months of operating (to June 2018). In the first half of 2019, an additional prospective EUR300m was originated. As at the date of the publication of the Prospectus and Circular to Abal shareholders, dated 4 March 2020 , EUR972m of prospective contracts have been originated. Raising £2.2m. Due 23 March.
The Proof Of Trust has announced its intention to list on the Standard Market. The Blockchain based business, owns patents to a protocol which facilitates dispute resolution based upon smart contract disputes. Transaction details TBC.
Companies: ALTN EQT WSG DUKE RED IHC GRL TMO VAST BST
Inspiration Healthcare has announced its largest single order from the NHS to immediately supply ventilators to the value of £1.25m, to support the NHS’ response to the current Covid-19 situation in the UK. This is clearly a positive announcement for IHC, though we note management’s caution regarding the dynamic nature of global governmental responses to the outbreak. While we acknowledge the seriousness of the coronavirus pandemic, we note that Inspiration Healthcare’s medical device portfolio largely serves non-elective, intensive care situations which in many cases cannot be postponed. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Inspiration Healthcare has evolved from a medical equipment distributor to today's fully integrated medical technology company with a strong focus on the neonatal intensive care market. We do not believe Inspiration Healthcare's current valuation reflects this transition which has seen the company deepen its strong market knowledge, develop multiple revenue growth opportunities and build the capabilities to support the development of disruptive technologies. We believe neonatal intensive care is an attractive segment in which to operate and that Inspiration Healthcare is well positioned to benefit within the market. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Inspiration Healthcare has announced a strong trading update for the fiscal year ending January 2020. The company anticipates delivering results ahead of expectations, with revenues of £17.8m versus our FY20E revenue estimate of £17.5m. Revenue growth for the year is expected to be 15% (Cenkos est 13%) including a contribution from the Viomedex acquisition. EBITDA, adjusted for exceptionals, is expected to be between £2.0m and £2.1m for the year, representing growth of over 20% versus FY19A. This announcement demonstrates the strength of both Inspiration Healthcare's underlying business and recent acquisition. This supports our Buy recommendation.
Inspecs, a UK designer, manufacturer and distributor of eyewear frames to global retail chains announces its intention to IPO onto AIM raising £94m with a market cap of £138m. Admission expected 27th February. FY Dec 2018 numbers show revenue of $57m and underlying EBITDA of $11m
Companies: IHC TRCS IMMO PHD STAF DMTR TLOU OSI IPEL BBB
Intention to float by Gemfields Group. No Capital Raise. Currently listed on JSE. (GML:JNB) at circa £122m. The Group's key producing assets, the Kagem emerald mine in Zambia (believed to be the world's single largest producing emerald mine) and the Montepuez ruby mine in Mozambique (one of the most significant recently discovered ruby deposits in the world), are both expected to have long mine-lives with potential for expansion. Also owns the Faberge brand. Due Valentines Day 2020. The Proof Of Trust has announced its intention to list on the Standard Market. The Blockchain based business, owns patents to a protocol which facilitates dispute resolution based upon smart contract disputes. Transaction details TBC. Calisen Group. Potential Intention to Float. Owner and manager of essential energy infrastructure assets through its subsidiaries Calvin Capital and Lowri Beck . Consolidated FY Dec 18 revenue £162.1m and operating profit £25.4m. Raising up to £300m in primary plus partial vendor sale. Expected Admission February 2020 The Global Sustainable Farmland Income Trust will invest in a diversified portfolio of operational farmland assets located in major agricultural markets including the United States, Europe, New Zealand, Australia and certain countries within Latin and South America. Raising up to $300m. Due 28 February. Investment firm Nippon Active Value fund is seeking to raise up to £200m at an issue price of 100p per share via an IPO. The company aims to invest in a portfolio of quoted Japanese stocks with market capitalisations of up to $1bn. First day of dealings expected early February.
Companies: TRB MXCT ROCK ERGO TMT SNT TXP KAPE IHC SAA
African Export-Import Bank a supranational financial institution whose purpose is to facilitate, promote and expand intra- and extra- African trade, of its potential intention to publish a registration document, the Bank hereby confirms its intention to proceed with an Initial Public Offering. The GDRs are expected to be admitted to the standard listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the Main Market of the LSE. DNEG Limited intends to apply for admission of its Shares to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the FCA and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. The Offer will be comprised of new Shares to be issued by the Company (to raise expected gross proceeds of £150m). Admission is expected to take place in November 2019.
Companies: SAR REDD HSP KEFI PTR AVG SNX IHC BGO TERN
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Kromek has received a material order from DARPA to further develop a biopathogen detector totalling $5.2m. This is an incremental market opportunity for the company and the majority of the contracted value is likely to be recognised in the company’s new fiscal period to April 2021.
Companies: Kromek Group
Many of the world’s best and most important products (eg Space exploration, nuclear medicine/power & the internet) were originally invented by the military. It’s happened again – but this time to combat airborne pathogens like Ebola, SARS/MERS and all manner of other biological nasties doing the rounds. You see on 10th December 2018, Kromek was awarded a $2.0m contract by DARPA (research arm of US Dept. of Defense) to develop a vehicle-mounted bio-threat detector. The idea being that this should be able to rapidly identify (within 1 hour) any dangerous germ that might have been released into the environment, say by terrorist groups, organised criminals &/or rogue states.
Further to the announcement on 9 April of Omega’s participation in a UK Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC), a point-of-care COVID-19 antibody test programme, the UK-RTC confirmed today that it is on track to reach a design freeze in June, following early results from 66 samples, which indicated the test to be in line with design requirements. Omega stands ready to mobilise both people and facilities at Alva, Scotland, to produce tests for the consortium. We are leaving our base forecast unchanged (reflects the non-COVID business only), but placing target price under review given the difficulty of forecasting potential COVID-19 related sales with any degree of accuracy.
Companies: Omega Diagnostics Group
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
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Novacyt (NCYT.L): COVID-19 update
LiDCO’s AGM statement makes for pleasing reading. Whilst the exceptional conditions in Q1 have abated somewhat, Q2 is seeing signs of a return to normality as hospitals start to prepare for the return of elective surgeries. Sales orders in May have been consistent with last year and, whilst the situation remains fluid, we take that as an encouraging sign for the rest of the year. With £4.4m of revenues booked in Q1 and recurring revenues expected to continue at the FY20 exit run rate level, we have sufficient confidence in the outlook to upgrade our revenue forecasts for the year by £0.4m and EBITDA/FCF by £0.3m. Postupgrades, the shares trade on a Yr1 EV/Sales of just 2.1x. With scope for further upgrades and the company at an inflection point in sustainable profitability, we view this as exceptionally attractive.
Companies: Lidco Group
Futura Medical is approaching a key point as the first of the regulatory filings for its novel erectile dysfunction (ED) treatment, MED3000, is expected within the next few months. MED3000 is a fast-acting gel that has proven clinical efficacy, a fast onset of action, and an attractive commercial profile. The ED market opportunity is sizeable, especially once MED3000 becomes widely available over the counter (OTC). Optimally addressing the various elements of the demographic segments and needs of the different geographies will, in our view, require careful selection of commercial partners. We expect the partnering discussions to start in earnest once the status of the regulatory approvals is known. Our DCF-based model, using conservative assumptions, values Futura Medical at £153.8m, equivalent to 60.9p a share.
Companies: Futura Medical
The potential of cell therapies is starting to become clear, and MaxCyte’s technology lies at the heart of many of these next-generation treatments. The pivotal role its platform plays is shown by ten major partnership agreements formed with leading cell therapy players over the past 18 months. These can earn pre-commercialisation milestones in excess of $800m, transforming MaxCyte’s medium- and longer-term revenues as the underlying programmes advance through clinical development. CARMA, MaxCyte’s proprietary cell therapy platform, is nearing a key inflection point, with Phase I data from its lead asset due in 2020. Management is targeting CARMA to be self-financing by 2021. We raise our valuation to £260m (340p/share), from £195m and 341p, with the core business alone valued at £158m (206p/share).
Avacta is leveraging the antibody-like properties of Affimers for Therapeutic and Diagnostic applications across multi-billion dollar markets, including testing and treatment for COVID-19, building a differentiated pipeline and global partnerships. The near-term key is the roll out of its SARS COV-2 antigen tests, including potentially one of the first Point-of-Care tests to-market, offering game-changing commercial scope, sufficient to significantly accelerate the clinical development of its Therapeutic pipeline.
Companies: Avacta Group
The specialist cancer drug discovery and development business has today announced a deal which is set to crystallise value and near term cash generation from what was viewed by many to be a non-core asset for Sareum. Sareum has entered into an agreement with a Shanghai main market-listed Chinese specialty pharmaceutical company; the Licensee will make an initial upfront payment of £50,000 to Sareum, with a further Development Payment of c. £0.9m due on the earlier of achieving certain milestones on the oral bioavailability of the Compounds or nine months from the date of the agreement.
4D pharma has announced its FY’19 results for the period ending 31 December 2019. Results are in-line with our expectations, although the reported cash position of £3.8m does not reflect the Group’s current position because since period-end 4D pharma has completed a £22m equity fundraising. Cash runaway is now indicated until the end of Q4 2020 on current activity levels. This takes them through key potentially value-adding readouts expected in 2020, including full results from the Phase II programme of Blautix in IBS in Q3 2020, and additional oncology data for MRx0518 from the now completed Part A of the Phase I/II study in Q3 2020 and two ongoing Phase I biomarker studies in H2 2020. Management also flagged that the ongoing recruitment into the Phase I/II asthma trial has been impacted due to Covid-19, although this is somewhat offset by the initiation of the Phase II trial in hospitalised Covid-19 patients. 4D pharma continues to seek a partner for this Covid-19 programme and recently published a presentation supporting the scientific rationale for MRx-4DP0004’s use in Covid-19 hospitalised patients. The MSD collaboration continues to progress well and management are actively pursuing additional research collaborations that could create additional value for shareholders. Year-to-date the Group has made excellent progress progressing its clinical pipeline, and we look forward to these key potentially value-creating readouts later in 2020.
Companies: 4D Pharma
Physiomics, the oncology consultancy using mathematical models and its Virtual Tumour™ technology to support the development of cancer treatment regimens and personalised medicine solutions, has today announced the completion of an £0.83m over-subscribed fundraise at 3.5p. This includes Director participation and the arrival of the Company’s first small-cap institutional fund onto the register.
Surgical Innovations has provided some useful context to the current trading environment. Whilst revenues are significantly down in Q2 so far, they are perhaps not down to the levels initially expected and there are some encouraging if tentative signs of life as hospitals prepare to recommence elective surgeries. The group’s cash position has increased to £1.65m (from £1.28m at the Y/E) and, with an undrawn £0.5m RCF and a new £1.5m CBILS facility, the group has £3.65m of available liquidity. This should be sufficient to cover its operational requirements for several months and to fund working capital as and when activity begins to pick up. Prior to the Covid-19 shutdown, momentum had been building in terms of market share gains, with new account wins in the UK and new distributor markets opening up globally. The company’s resposable model is ideally suited to the increased focus on sustainability, particularly reducing the use of single use plastics. With a number of new products expected to launch progressively over the next few years, we believe the company has bright prospects, once the short term challenge around Covid-19 has been navigated.
Companies: Surgical Innovations Group
LiDCO provided a trading update, in which revenues in May are said to have returned to normal levels after an exceptional Q1 FY 2021 (£4.4m, some 26% higher than H1 FY 2020). With indications that elective surgeries, which fell during the peak of the COVID pandemic in its key territories, are beginning to rise again from recent lows, the outlook is for sustained growth during the rest of FY 2021. We have adjusted our FY 2021 forecasts to reflect the exceptional Q1 performance (primarily capital sales to NHS), but with scope to raise forecasts further as evidence of rising elective surgery rates occurs, coupled with the prospect that the recent capital sales should drive incremental per-use disposables. With cash balance of £3.2m at 28 May (£1.4m at FY 2020 year-end), the company is well positioned to explore additional sales & marketing opportunities in its key markets as customer hospitals exit lockdown and sales reps are able to access hospitals for evaluations. We upgrade target price to 12p.
Despite being China-heavy, AstraZeneca had a superb start to 2020, with Q1 sales CER growth of 17%. While Oncology was once again the key growth driver, reasonable (but possibly transient) support came from ‘Respiratory + Immunology’, and New CVRM. However, a key question is – how long can Astra sustain this momentum, especially when COVID-related forward buying retreats? Moreover, the restoration of healthy group-level operating margins is still missing, thereby making us sceptical of the group’s (extremely-)high price multiples.