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Our FY2024E net debt moves from £5.5m to £2.8m, only £34k of CLNs now remain.
Kromek Group Plc
Kromek has been awarded a £1.3m grant under the European i-RASE project, which is looking to develop a new class of radiation sensors based upon CZT and other advanced technologies. The project is looking to incorporate the latest artificial intelligence developments to facilitate the retrieval of information on incident radiation and will be used across numerous applications in medical imaging, industrial inspection, scientific space instrumentation and environmental monitoring. The project will start on 1 March 2024 and run for 48 months.
Kromek reported interim results with revenues up 5% to £7.1m, adjusted EBITDA loss of ca. £0.1m, period-end gross cash of £3.7m and net debt of £5.2m. The company reiterated its view that fiscal 2024E revenues are expected to grow in-line with market expectations, which we see at around 20%, which implies a sharp pick-up in the H2 result (to +32%). Although this sounds a tough target it needs to be remembered that, because of the recurring contract revenue nature of the business, revenue forecasts are predictable – per the release management has good visibility on 84% of the 2024E forecast, with the remaining 16% to come from the known pipeline of opportunities. Adjusted EBITDA saw a dramatic improvement over H1 2023 at a loss of £0.1m, a function of the improving gross margin and significant control of other operating costs, which reduced from £8.0m to £6.4m. We slightly increase our 2024E, adjusted EBITDA moving from £0.9m to £1.2m, and more materially in 2025E, from £1.7m to £3.1m, driven by our belief that the company will continue to stay on top of operating costs. We see 2024E year-end gross cash at £3.5m and net debt at £5.4m (prior to £2.6m conversion of CLN). Having reviewed the longer-term opportunities for CZT in the Advanced Imaging market we increase our price target from 25p to 28p.
Results highlight the emergence of demand for Kromek’s Advanced Imaging and CBRN detection, evidenced by contract wins and collaboration agreement momentum. Supported by strong financial discipline and persistent geopolitical risk, our fair value remains at 26p/ share. For the six months to 31 October 2023, Kromek reported revenue of £7.1m, +5%YoY, gross profit of £3.9m, +41%, a 54.2% margin compared to 40.4% a year earlier, and an (adj.) EBITDA loss of £0.1m (H1 23: £(2.7)m loss). The loss before tax was £(3.5)m, reduced from £(5.7)m a year earlier. As of October 2023 the cash position was £3.7m, with net debt at £5.2m (H1 23: 8.3m). Significant cost controls are also evident, with administration and distribution costs reduced from £7.6m in H1 23 to £6.2m (-20%).
Recent new contracts show that Kromek’s investment in bio-hazard detection technology is becoming a commercial reality. On 26 October the Group received a US$5.9m (£4.84m) contract from the US Department of Homeland Security Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Office - the first for Kromek - to research and develop technologies for agent-agnostic bio-detection. On 31 October Kromek announced 3 more orders for CBRN detection worth a total of US$1.0m (£0.82m), most of which is expected to be recognised in the current year to 30 April 2024. Then on 7 November the Group announced a collaboration agreement with a new blue chip partner for CZT-based photon-counting CT medical applications; the partner provides solutions to over 100,000 customers globally. Kromek had also announced the refinancing of its HSBC RCF in September and our outlook remains unchanged: indicative of a FY25 E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.8x. As does our Fair Value at 26p / share.
For the year to 30 April 2023 Kromek reported revenue of £17.3m, +44%YoY, and an EBITDA (adj.) loss of £1.0m. The salient feature was the reversal of the H1 (adj.) EBITDA loss of £2.61m to a H2 (adj.) EBITDA profit of £1.63m. Gross profitability also improved, from a 46.8% margin in FY22 to 51.6%, again with a strong H2 improvement at a 59.3% margin. The year-end cash position was £1.1m then post year-end the Group raised £8.0m to fund growth prospects. We estimate FY23 revenue in the Advanced Imaging division of £7.6m +65%YoY, and in the CBRN segment, £7.4m, +38%YoY. Importantly the balance of revenue generation continued to shift towards Products, comprising 85% of total (FY22: 82%), rather than R&D-related projects. On 18 April Kromek announced a major 7 year agreement with a Tier 1 OEM to develop and incorporate its CZT-based detectors in advanced medical imaging scanners. We base our outlook on the assumption that the Tier 1 OEM agreement addresses the CT scanner market estimated to be worth c.US$10bn by 20291; and see Kromek potentially adding over £100m to revenue by 2029. We make no changes to our FY24 outlook, and introduce FY25 forecasts: with estimated revenue of £25.1m and EBITDA of £2.6m indicative of an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x Our Fair Value is also maintained at 26p/share.
Kromek reported full-year results to 30 April that were above the trading update provided at the time of its recent placing (5 May), with full-year gross margin of 51.6%, H2 EBITDA of £1.7m and H2 free cashflow of £1.1m (vs. expected high 40% gross margin, EBITDA +ve H2 and broadly cash neutral H2). We believe the £0.7m revenue shortfall was timing related, reflected in the high work-in-progress inventory at the year-end (c.£8.3m). With Kromek now working with nine OEMs in SPECT and CT, the company expects some of the engagements to transition to formal significant contracts for final design/integration followed by the supply of CZT detectors and modules in the near term, which should drive the valuation. Forecasts are left unchanged for FY 2024, with 60% visibility of our FY 2023 revenue forecast. We leave our sum-of-the parts target price unchanged at 25p. As the only independent supplier at scale of CZT for imaging systems, we believe there is substantial strategic value in Kromek that is not reflected in the current price.
On 18 April Kromek announced a major seven-year agreement with a Tier 1 OEM to develop and incorporate its CZT-based detectors in the OEM’s advanced medical imaging scanners, and further deals have since followed. In order to fund these opportunities, on 5 May the Group announced a fund-raise of £8m (gross). It is our assumption that the Tier 1 OEM segment targeted is the CT scanner market. This was worth an estimated US$6.7bn in 2022 and, at a 5.6% CAGR, is expected to reach US$9.92bn by 2029. The market is in the process of transitioning to efficient and accurate processes based on cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) semiconductors. Following the acquisition of Redlen Technologies Inc. in 2021 by Canon, Kromek remains the only commercial-scale independent source of this key CZT-based technology. Given the market position of a Tier 1 OEM CT supplier and outlook for the CT market, we calculate that a collaboration in this field could exceed a cumulative £100m contribution to Kromek’s revenue by 2029. Additionally, we have revisited the Canon-Redlen acquisition; which would indicate a Kromek sum-of-parts valuation of between 56p and 84p per share. Whilst awaiting further details of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 OEM agreements, we maintain our Fair Value at 26p/share for now.
Kromek raised £7m (with up to £1m via an Open Offer) to strengthen the balance sheet and provide the working capital for the CT programme to bridge the gap before supply agreements with recently announced Tier 1 and Tier 2 OEMs commence in earnest. As the only independent commercial scale manufacturer of the next-generation detector (CZT) for use in CT and SPECT imaging systems, Kromek is actively engaged with 9 OEMs (both Tier 1 and Tier 2), with 3 agreements having now been signed (FC estimated potential worth: $250-300m). These illustrate the progress that has been made over the past 5 years and place Kromek on the cusp of a major revenue inflection over the next 5 years. We introduce FY 25 forecasts. Our target price is reduced to 25p (on a fully diluted basis), with a range of 21-31p.
Kromek Group has announced a major, seven-year agreement to supply its CZT-based detectors to a Tier 1 OEM manufacturer of medical imaging scanners. The client has a market-leading position across a range of healthcare technology markets. Although specific details are not yet available, we regard this as a ‘breakthrough’ development for the medical imaging arm of Kromek’s business which underlines the significance of its leadership in CZT-based detector technology. The medical imaging market is broadly divided between CT- (computed tomography) and SPECT-based (single photon emission CT) products and dominated by four Tier 1 suppliers - Philips Medical Systems Inc., Siemens Healthineers GmbH, Canon Medical Systems Corp., and GE Healthcare. The difference in scale is striking, with a Tier 1 having an estimated market share of between 15% and 30%, and a Tier 2 player estimated to have a single digit percentage market share. The group has also announced an agreement to collaborate with the Tier 2 medical imaging specialist Analogic Corporation in the application of CZT-based detection technology to next-generation photon counting CT (PCCT) imaging - for both medical imaging and security applications. In addition, it issued a Trading Update which underpins our FY23 outlook. Kromek reports that Q3 revenue rose +50%YoY (ED FY23 estimate is +49%YoY) with a gross profit margin expected in the high 40% range (ED FY23 estimate is 47%). The Group reports being ‘broadly cash neutral’ in Q3, continuing into Q4. Whilst awaiting further details of the agreements we maintain our near-term outlook and a Fair Value of 26p/share.
Kromek announced (i) a game-changing CZT development and supply agreement with a Tier 1 OEM to develop CZT-based detectors for use in the customer’s advanced medical imaging scanners, and (ii) a positive trading update indicating that the business was broadly cash neutral in Q3 and is expected to remain so through Q4 2023. Although deal terms and the specific modality(ies) in which CZT will be applied are not disclosed, this agreement underpins our thesis and provides the strong external endorsement and validation that the market was seeking. We consider the most likely use for CZT detectors to be in CT imaging applications, given market trends and the acquisition by Canon of Redlen Technologies in 2021 to secure in-house CZT production for its transition to CZT-based CT detectors. On this basis and assuming a c.20% conversion of the OEM’s estimated share of the c.$6.7bn CT scanner market to CZT detectors, annual revenues could be c.$60m in 2030 (EBITDA of c.$15m), implying an initial supply contract worth c.$120-150m over this period. Depending on the substitution rate of CZT for existing scintillator detectors, we estimate the NPV of a long-term supply agreement to be in the range c.£40-60m – substantially higher than the current market cap of the company, not forgetting the value tied up in the radiation or bio-pathogen detection business. We reiterate a 27p target price.
As the acronym suggests, Kromek’s technology in the CBRN segment detects a wide range of threats, from radiological to biological hazards. These are united by two common themes: practicability – making ultra-high performance detection devices compact, robust and easily-deployed – and connectivity – enabling data sharing and analysis, to facilitate rapid response. A number of recent events and reports around the world serve as a timely reminder that Kromek’s CBRN technology has urgent practical application – in both Radiological detection and Biohazard detection. At the start of FY23, Kromek noted that it expected “a substantial year-on-year increase in revenue”. H1 results and prospects for the second half reaffirm this outlook, indicative of >40%YoY growth, to record revenue levels. In addition, we anticipate that the inflationary, exchange rate and supply chain pressures which impacted H1 23 profitability having stabilised will continue to ease. Our forecasts remain unchanged, as does our Fair Value of 26p / share.
For the six months to 31 October 2022 Kromek reported revenue of £6.8m, +44.1% YoY, gross profit of £2.74m, +24.3%YoY, a 40.4% margin compared to 46.8% a year earlier, and an (adj.) EBITDA loss of £(2.666)m attributable to a combination of inventory build – offsetting components supply chain factors – cost inflation and a £0.5m $:£ currency move. The loss before tax (reported) was £(5.671)m. As of 31 October 2022 the cash position was £0.96m, with net debt at £8.30m. Kromek reports that by 23 January the cash position had improved to £1.3m. Kromek reported an order book with 84% of revenue reported to be either contracted or already shipped, 5% under negotiation and 2% arising from repeat business; leaving 9% to be filled by new opportunities, underpinning confidence in the full year outlook. The Advanced Imaging segment has benefitted from significant contracts and customer engagement in key target areas, notably SPECT (single photon emission computed tomography) and CT (computed tomography). Continued geopolitical uncertainty underpins demand for Kromek’s range of D3 and D5 radiation detectors in the CBRN segment, evident in the major post period-end £4.9m UK government contract for development of biological threat-detection systems. Our FY23 revenue outlook remains unchanged at £18.0m +49%YoY (E). For FY24 we anticipate healthy revenue growth of 16.7%YoY, and an (adj.) EBITDA profit of just under £1.0m. We also maintain our Fair Value at 26p/share.
Kromek reported interim results with revenues up 44% to £6.8m, an EBITDA loss of £2.7m and period-end cash of £1.0m. A record order book and good visibility over our FY 2023 revenue forecast of £18m (c.91% of which 84% is already contracted or shipped) should still deliver a positive EBITDA in H2, but given inflationary cost pressures and a negative FX impact on translated US costs, it is unlikely to offset the H1 loss as previously anticipated. We reduce FY 2023 EBITDA and PBT by £2.4m and £2.8m to -£2.2m and -£7.8m, respectively. Given visibility into FY 2024, we introduce forecasts calling for revenues of £21m and EBITDA of £1.0m. Near-term catalysts (e.g. a supply agreement with a major OEM in medical imaging) are expected to drive the share price, the prospect of which gets ever closer, evidenced, in our opinion, by the fact that the company is now working with eight tier 1 and tier 2 OEMs in the CT/SPECT imaging market. As the only independent commercial supplier of CZT, we believe that these engagements should transition to long-term supply contracts, the timing of which is determined ultimately by the OEM’s NPD development timelines, thus creating substantial value. We reiterate our 27p target.
Kromek Group has announced the award of a three-year UK Government department biological threat-detection programme contract worth £4.9m. Work on the contract is scheduled to commence in December 2022; the three-year term includes an option for extended maintenance-related services. This is a significant contract and a clear ratification of the development work undertaken by Kromek, focused on the detection of biohazards which include the recent COVID-19 pandemic, but also extend to the development of systems capable of identifying and geo-locating other biological threats. In an environment currently absorbed by a variety of economic and geopolitical risks, the threat represented by natural or man-made biological agents has not diminished. On the 10th November, Kromek added that it expects revenue growth of “approximately 45% for the six months to 31 October 2022. The latest, £5m, biohazard detection contract, adds to this momentum. Our FY23 outlook remains unchanged at £18.0m revenue, +49%YoY (E), EBITDA (adj.) of £0.3m, and a reduced EBIT loss of (£4.3m) vs FY22: (£5.5m). We also retain our Fair Value at 26p/share.
Kromek has announced a £1.14m fundraise by way of the issue of Convertible Loan Notes (8% coupon, 18-month conversion period at 15p per share). Together with the £1.7m of convertible loan notes announced on 5 August, the company has now raised £2.84m, which provides the cash resources to minimise any potential supply chain disruption to the delivery of contracts during the year. We make only minor changes to forecasts to reflect the additional interest (c.£0.1m) accrued, with adjusted pre-tax loss increasing to £5.1m. We leave our target valuation of £118m (27p) unchanged, with near-term catalysts (e.g. a second long-term supply agreement with a major OEM in medical imaging and/or radiation detectors) helping to drive the valuation. As the only independent supplier of CZT for imaging systems, we believe there is substantial strategic value in Kromek. Long product life cycles (c.20 years) from its OEM customers, particularly in medical imaging, should provide visibility to cash generation, and are attractive value drivers.
For the year to 30 April 2022 Kromek reported results in line with the Trading Update of 16 May: revenue of £12.1m, +16.5%YoY, and an EBITDA (adj.) loss of £1.2m. We estimate revenue in the Advanced Imaging division grew 28% YoY to £4.6m, whilst the CBRN segment grew 1.5x to £5.4m. Kromek reports that it expects growth to accelerate in both its core segments – security-related CBRN and advanced imaging – with the prospect of “a substantial year-on-year increase in revenue”. The CBRN segment in particular has seen an increase in interest from government agencies, as current levels of geopolitical instability would indicate. There is very encouraging visibility of the current year with 53% of contracts sealed, with a further 37% under negotiation and 10% underpinned as repeat business. Kromek also announced two new orders worth a total of US$0.751m and a convertible loan note to raise £1.7m. Our FY23 outlook remains unchanged, as does our Fair Value at 26p/share.
Kromek announced a £1.7m fundraise by way of the issue of convertible loan notes (8% coupon, 18-month conversion period at 15p per share), which will allow the company to minimise any potential supply-chain disruption to the delivery of contracts during the year. We make only minor changes to forecasts to reflect the additional interest (c.£0.1m) accrued, with adjusted pre-tax loss increasing to £5.0m. We leave our target valuation of £118m (27p) unchanged, with near-term catalysts (e.g. a second long-term supply agreement with a major OEM in medical imaging and/or radiation detectors) helping to drive the valuation. As the only independent supplier of CZT for imaging systems, we believe there is substantial strategic value in Kromek. Long product life cycles (c.20 years) from its OEM customers, particularly in medical imaging, should provide visibility to cash generation, and are attractive value drivers.
Kromek reported full-year results to 30 April that were in line with the trading update of 16 May. Record visibility over our FY 2023 revenue forecast of £18m (c.53% of which is already contracted and 37% “Awarded not Contracted”, with the balance from its normal monthly run rate) is a great start for FY 2023 on which the company can build further. We are leaving forecasts unchanged for the moment, despite additional contract wins, and expect to introduce FY 2024 forecasts at the time of its interim results in December. We leave our target valuation of £118m (27p) unchanged, with near-term catalysts (e.g. a second long-term supply agreement with a major OEM in medical imaging and/or radiation detectors) helping to drive the valuation. As the only independent supplier of CZT for imaging systems, we believe there is substantial strategic value in Kromek.
Kromek has announced that it has received an order from a US federal entity for the D3S-ID wearable nuclear radiation detector, which provides an early warning system for potential radiation threats. The order is worth $0.65m and is to be delivered in the coming months. This is the second order for the D3S-ID from this customer, following the award of a $1.6m two-year contract in September 2021, and provides further endorsement of Kromek’s capabilities within a market over which Kromek has visibility of c.$500m of opportunities, of which the handheld segment is estimated to be worth c.$200m per annum in its key global markets (US, Europe and APAC). We are not making changes to our forecasts, which assume CBRN product sales in FY 2023 of c.£7.5m, but given the heightened threat posed by the war in Ukraine, we would hope to see further orders during the year, which could lead to upgrades. We reiterate our 27p target price, which is based on a SOTP basis that takes into consideration the strategic long-term value of CZT, particularly in the medical imaging field.
In a Trading Update for the year to 30 April 2022 Kromek reports that it expects FY22 revenue of £12.1m. This compares to our previous FY22 forecast of £15.0m. However, for the current year, backed by strong contract visibility, our FY23 expectation of £18.0m revenues remains unchanged. As outlined at the interims, the Group continued to be impacted by supply chain issues, notably the availability of key components required to complete £2.9m of orders required by the year end. These orders are now being shipped and are set to contribute to H1 ‘23 earnings. Despite order shipment delays, strong cost control and cashflow management resulted in a year-end FY22 cash position of £5.1m; this compares to our estimate of £7.4m. As a result of the unwinding of inventory, combined with cash inflow from delayed order completion, Kromek reports sufficient cash reserves for ongoing operations. For the current financial year, Kromek reports that it expects growth to accelerate in both its core segments - CBRN and Imaging - resulting in the prospect of “substantial revenue growth”. We retain a fair value of 26p / share.
Kromek is an enabling technology provider to the medical imaging market in particular. It is a commercial-stage company with two significant high growth opportunities: as a critical component supplier of cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) detectors to the advanced medical imaging market (next generation SPECT and CT modalities); and as a manufacturer of state-of-the-art radiation detectors to global government and Homeland Security agencies. High barriers to entry, given c.£130m invested since inception, and long product life cycles (c.20 years) from its OEM customers are attractive value drivers. Equally, as the only independent supplier of CZT for imaging systems, there is substantial strategic value in Kromek, illustrated by the c.$325m acquisition of Redlen Technologies by Canon in 2021 (implied 25-30x EV/Sales) to ensure captive CZT production for its CT platform due to be launched in the next couple of years. The current valuation is largely underpinned by a c.£55m order backlog. We initiate with a sum-of-the-parts derived 27p target.
Kromek is on track for +45% YoY revenue growth in FY22E, over which it has very strong visibility. Component supply issues seen in 2021 have been ameliorated, and flattish H1A revenues belie a deferral of deliveries into H2E which have now been made. Kromek's markets are rapidly recovering and FY22E will generate a record revenue base for the Group.
Kromek delivered a sound, well-managed, H1 performance given industry-wide supply chain and components difficulties and inflationary costs, whilst preserving a healthy cash balance. It reported increased activity in the key medical imaging segment, with three new strategic OEMs, plus the receipt of multi-million-dollar contracts in CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) segment. The six months to 31 October 2021 saw: revenue of £4.71m +2.9%YoY, with gross margin at 46.8% (FY21: 48.4%), adjusted EBITDA loss of £0.63m (H1 21: loss £0.87m), PBT loss (rptd.) reduced from £3.4m to £3.1m, and period-end cash was £10.2m. The net cash position remained positive at £3.5m (FY21: £7.4m). Kromek is now in a strong position to meet additional medium-term demand for its imaging equipment solutions, and is confident of market estimates of 45%YoY FY22 revenue growth; we estimate £15.0m for the full year. We retain our 26p fair value per share but note that the Redlen acquisition by Canon leaves Kromek as the only commercial independent source of CZT-based technology for imaging systems. The read-across from that deal points to an entirely different valuation, in the range of 65p-75p per share.
Bringing truly transformational, hi-tech products (eg autonomous driving) to market often takes years from initial R&D, fine-tuning & prototyping, right through to extensive field-trials and ‘proof-of-concept’. Only then to fail at either final customer sign-off or regulatory approval. Not so Kromek. Saying today that it had been awarded a 7 year $17m contract with a large US OEM to supply next generation CZT detectors to identify contaminants within production processes for quality inspection purposes. The order relates to a $660k development agreement, which was announced on 2nd November 2020. We think this is a significant achievement on numerous fronts. Not least because it’s a marvellous endorsement & statement of intent from another leading corporation. Alongside materially increasing Kromek’s orderbook and derisking our conservative forecasts, whilst equally enabling the firm to generate long term, high margin revenues across the lifetime of this platform. CEO Arnab Basu, adding: “We are delighted at the success of our collaboration with our OEM customer, who has substantial global operations and market share in this sector. Our customer is dedicated to introduce best-of-breed solutions in their next-generation products to ensure we can live healthier and safer lives. We anticipate developing further products for this customer to support their ambitions.”
Canon Inc has acquired Redlen Technologies, the only independent commercial producer of CZT detectors globally other than Kromek. Kromek's Medical Imaging division competes against Redlen in the medical imaging market and this consolidation leaves Kromek as the sole independent producer of CZT detectors worldwide. The read-across valuation for this division alone suggests Kromek is materially undervalued, and we see fair value in excess of 50p.
Recent news flow and positive contract momentum is sufficient to provide investors with high visibility over a 45% growth rate. This growth rate will produce a record revenue base this year but the advent of supplemental market opportunities in new product areas means the demand curve facing Kromek is now at its steepest. Buy.
Albeit not wanting to tempt fate, 19th July 2021 will hopefully ‘go down’ in UK history as the day Covid switched from being a pandemic to an endemic disease. A watershed moment for the country, especially those 5.3m (& climbing) NHS patients sitting on waiting lists and holiday makers desperate to travel abroad after the removal of quarantine restrictions for ‘amber listed’ destinations.
Once the world is fully vaccinated, many investors incorrectly assume there will be no need for covid testing. Wrong. More contagious & deadlier variants are sure to appear, together with perhaps totally new infectious diseases that might even trigger another pandemic. Equally, the danger posed by deliberate (re rogue states, organised crime &/or terrorism) &/or even accidental (say a lab) biological release of harmful pathogens into the environmental isn’t going away anytime soon. The US government recognises this, and hence wants to get ahead of the curve.
Kromek has been awarded a $6m contract extension from DARPA for the Phase II development of a biological threat detection system. The 28 month milestone based contract will account for a material amount of our forecast incremental revenue growth in 2022E. We believe the commercial value of the system once rolled out could provide a revenue opportunity materially in excess of the development value awarded to date.
After a quiet 1 st half (p/e Oct’21) due to the pandemic, Kromek is now enjoying a powerful rebound for its next generation, radiation detectors from existing & new medical (eg BMD, SPECT), nuclear (D3S) & security screening (Airport baggage/bottles) customers. Saying today that FY’21 results would be “in line with expectations”, with the Board equally being “excited” about the near-term prospects for its ground-breaking, biological threat detector. These mobile or static devices continuously test for airborne pathogens including Covid19, and are currently being piloted at an airport and another UK public location.
An in-line update for FY21E means that losses have been contained by management's action on the cost base. Losses are not materially higher than in FY20A and sequential growth shows that revenues are recovering rapidly. With an identifiable pipeline of commercial opportunities, we see capacity for upside risk to financial forecasts to emerge this year.
Despite the pandemic, smart investors continue to back world beating technology. So it is with Kromek, who yesterday confirmed that it had raised £13m gross at 15p/share from existing and new shareholders. The proceeds being earmarked to further develop the new ground-breaking biothreat/Covid airborne detector (see below), alongside optimising its CZT medical/nuclear imaging & D3S ‘dirty bomb’ commercialisation strategy. Whilst equally bolstering the balance sheet.
Kromek has raised £10m gross in a secondary placing to accelerate growth in new product areas and help strengthen the balance sheet. Our reinstated forecasts project a bounce back in revenues on identifiable revenue sources. We see several potential commercial opportunities which could provide material upside risk to our forecasts.
As a nation, we love knocking ourselves. However in truth, we’re actually a pretty pioneering bunch. For instance, the experts at Oxford University & AstraZeneca have developed one of the world’s 3 most important vaccines in double quick time. Plus, many other British firms are creating similar breakthrough Covid inventions, such as Kromek.
H1A delivered a very resilient performance given the backdrop of halted deliveries and reduced manufacturing capacity. Orders and shipments are resuming and a ramp up in activity levels is expected in H2. A cash outflow in H1A has been supported by new committed facilities and gross cash levels look set to support the business successfully through the second half and beyond.
It’s often said that ‘Rome wasn’t built in a day’. What’s less well appreciated is that many international capitals could literally become ‘ghost towns’ overnight, if attacked by terrorists, rogue nations &/or organised criminals, who successfully detonated a ‘dirty bomb’.
Kromek (KMK.L): New R&D project in cancer surgery
Both the US and UK operations are fully back up and running and by the end of calendar 2020 we see Kromek being back on a pre-Covid-19 trajectory. Additional funding has been secured post balance sheet date to see the business through the intervening period. Our forecasts remain withdrawn for now but we see no diminution of market opportunity.
‘What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger’. Ditto for radiation detection expert Kromek, which was hit by a ‘perfect storm’ in the Spring, after the pandemic forced hospitals to postpone operations, borders to close and governments to impose national lockdowns. In turn, hitting the firm’s 3 core markets, namely Medical Imaging (SPECT, BMD), ‘dirty bomb’ detection (D3S) & Airport Screening (baggage scanners).
Many of the world’s best and most important products (eg Space exploration, nuclear medicine/power & the internet) were originally invented by the military. It’s happened again – but this time to combat airborne pathogens like Ebola, SARS/MERS and all manner of other biological nasties doing the rounds. You see on 10th December 2018, Kromek was awarded a $2.0m contract by DARPA (research arm of US Dept. of Defense) to develop a vehicle-mounted bio-threat detector. The idea being that this should be able to rapidly identify (within 1 hour) any dangerous germ that might have been released into the environment, say by terrorist groups, organised criminals &/or rogue states.
Kromek has received a material order from DARPA to further develop a biopathogen detector totalling $5.2m. This is an incremental market opportunity for the company and the majority of the contracted value is likely to be recognised in the company’s new fiscal period to April 2021.
Hospital expenditure should logically rise during pandemics, right? Yes, but not always straight away. Indeed, total US healthcare spend actually fell 18% annualised in Q1’20, as operating theatres were converted into ICUs and non-critical procedures postponed to free up resource for COVID-19 patients. It’s a similar picture worldwide, and why J&J recently said that its medical device division was experiencing contract delays. The important takeaway being that these orders are not lost, and should come back in future quarters – probably post any 2nd infection wave in the Autumn.
Customer orders in Q4E have moved to the right as a result of the COVID-19 crisis leading to a revenue shortfall in FY20E. While these orders are deferred and not cancelled, precise visibility over their future timing is limited and we are withdrawing forecasts for FY21E. Kromek's strong balance sheet adequately fully absorbs the shortfall in cash flow and we aim to reinstate forecasts by the time the company reports its final results.
Kromek intends to secure a manufacturing licence for the production of ventilators to assist the global response against the COVID-19 virus. Production on commercial terms will not have a material effect on FY20E but a production ramp-up in to early FY21E could be a meaningful feature in the new fiscal period.
Rarely has Britain ever invented such world-beating technology as that developed by Kromek. Indeed its next generation radiation detectors are disrupting 3 major verticals - Medical Imaging (eg BMD & SPECT), Nuclear Detection (D3S) and Security Screening (Airport baggage/bottles) – each worth >$100m pa.
Recent investment in capital equipment has increased Kromek's CZT production capability seven-fold. Contracted medical imaging output will ramp up in H2E and revenue visibility for FY20E stands at over 90%. Kromek is on track for organic growth of +27% this year. We adjust our working capital assumptions to reflect a slightly slower cash recovery but momentum in the business and all time low share price support a Buy.
Given the S&P500 is within a whisker of all-time highs, it is virtually impossible to find undervalued, high quality, growth stocks - especially those possessing ‘disruptive’ technology and addressing $bn end-markets. However we think Kromek, a leading next generation radiation detection business, is one. Today it posted FY19 turnover up 22.6% LFL to £14.5m (vs £11.8m LY), alongside a 4-fold increase in EBITDA (pre SBPs) to £2.0m (£0.5m). Better still momentum accelerated throughout the period, with H2’19 EBITDA coming in at £2.5m (margin 23.3%) on sales of £10.8m (£7.0m LY).
True ‘category champions’ (eg Facebook, Google, etc) often create vast new markets from scratch. Stage 1 of the genesis usually entails developing unique IPR, customer awareness and strong barriers to entry. Followed closely by extensive field testing, additional product refinement and the receipt of early orders. The last involves full commercialisation, widespread adoption and ultimately becoming the industry’s ‘de facto standard’.
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The 23% organic revenue growth delivered last year reflects only the beginning of the commercialisation phase for many of Kromek's underlying markets. Visibility into the new fiscal period is at an all time high and free cash flow breakeven is in sight. All of this is at odds with the share price near the all time low. Buy.
Given the S&P500 is within a whisker of all-time highs, it is virtually impossible to find undervalued, high quality, growth stocks - especially those possessing ‘disruptive’ technology and addressing $bn end-markets. However we think Kromek, a leading next generation radiation detection business, is one.
Momentum is crucial across many walks of life. Not least politics, sports and the economy. However, for rapidly expanding tech firms it is one of the most important KPIs, particularly when it comes to orderflow and ultimately achieving sector dominance. On Tuesday (7th), Kromek certainly did not disappoint. Saying that it “expects to report revenue growth for the full year 2018/19 and EBITDA profit in-line with market expectations.” Implying a strong H2’19, partly aided by £1.5m-£2.0m of shipments which were deferred from H1’19, due to the relocation of US production to a new medical grade, manufacturing facility in Pittsburgh. I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised though, since Kromek has delivered 33% top line CAGR since FY13.
There are a multitude of reasons why companies tap investors for money. However, to us the most productive use of fresh capital is to enable businesses to satisfy unprecedented demand in their core areas of expertise. Exactly the situation that Kromek finds itself. Here, the D3S is already the de facto standard for ‘dirty bomb’ detection, whilst in medical imaging, a secular upgrade cycle (re CZT replacing scintillated materials) has already kicked off, augmented by the need for OEMs to respond to GE’s first mover advantage. Hence at today’s General Meeting, Kromek concluded it’s (previously announced) £20m placing & £1m open offer - issuing 84.0m new shares at 25p, and enlarging the equity base by 24.7% to 344.6m.
Kromek has announced a major $58.1m contract with a medical imaging customer. We believe that this contract represents only the beginning of an industry wide cycle whereby OEM vendors upgrade their imaging equipment to CZT based systems. The company has raised £20m of gross proceeds in an equity Placing to help support 20%+ compound growth going forward.
The healthcare industry has reached a seminal point. Faced with ageing populations, soaring demand and intense political pressure to improve patient outcomes, governments have realised that the only way to cope is to embrace ‘revolutionary’ new technologies. Not just those which deliver incremental improvements, but real ‘step changes’ that generate far superior results from much less resource. Focusing for instance on prevention rather than cure, where there is typically more bang for the buck.
Visibility over 2019E has improved sharply to 86%, underpinned by recent contract wins. The transfer of manufacturing facilities to larger premises is complete and double shift work is completing volume deliveries on schedule, leaving the outlook for this fiscal period unchanged. We surmise that the move to a larger site is portent of larger volumes of work. The company remains on track for +27% revenue growth this year. Buy
Amid all the BREXIT hullabaloo, it is easy to forget that the government only last week committed another £20.5bn to the NHS – aiming to save a further 500,000 lives by 2029. Central to the plan is increasing the availability of next generation imaging equipment in hospitals (eg X-ray, BDM, SPECT, CT & MRI) in order to accelerate the diagnosis & treatment of serious illnesses (eg cancer, heart disease, dementia & osteoporosis).
DARPA has extended its engagement with Kromek into a new market segment. Kromek's Sigma platform now incorporates biological threat detection and the product has a meaningful competitive advantage. The proof of concept contract could possibly be extended in our opinion. This further raises revenue visibility and underpins our Buy recommendation.
Ask anyone living in Salisbury and they can tell you first-hand what is like when a deadly nerve agent like Novichok is released. Fortunately on this occasion, there was no widespread contamination - which according to experts at Porton Down (UK’s top chemical/biological warfare facility), could have killed thousands of people. So what can be done?
A new baggage screening contract with an existing OEM customer further reinforces revenue visibility for 2019E. Kromek is maintaining its trajectory towards cash flow breakeven next year. This reflects the increasing maturity of its marketplace which is at odds with the share price, trading at the bottom of its range for the year. Buy.
Amongst all the Brexit-induced mudslinging in Parliament last week, it is easy to forget that the UK continues to create world class companies, which are developing some of the best technologies in the world.
Just for a moment put yourself in the shoes of the Head of the US armed forces. Terrorist/enemy forces are becoming far more daring, covert & technically advanced, and you need to protect approx. 1.3m active service personnel, 800k reservists and 800 overseas bases from ‘dirty bombs’.
A spate of contract newsflow is increasing revenue visibility over this year. Some new and incremental addressable markets are being discovered for Kromek's CZT based detection equipment. The footprint of the business is steadily increasing and its size will be enhanced materially as the US manufacturing facility ramps up this fiscal year.
Hot on the heels of winning up to $3.3m of home security contracts in late July with the US government, Kromek today said that it had secured two more significant orders. Both within healthcare and together worth >$1m.
What’s one of the best ways of driving long term shareholder returns? Well, an ideal starting place is having a hat full of 1 st class customers, capable management and a wellfunded balance sheet. However, to us what really differentiates good from truly great companies, is the presence of ‘world beating and highly disruptive’ technology that not only addresses large untapped markets, but also is difficult to copy. We think Kromek has this in spades.
Production capability is being scaled up in a new US manufacturing facility. This is a necessary precursor for delivering material volumes of SPECT equipment. The homeland security opportunity is expanding beyond the core US market into other developed nations. We are forecasting positive free cash flow generation next year and see incremental purchase orders as sources of future upgrades.
FY18 was pivotal for Kromek in many ways. Not least, because it was the first time ever EBITDA turned positive (£482k vs -£1,462k) - reflecting record turnover of £11,845k, up 32.1% LFL (LY £8,968k; +37% constant currency) and favourable operational gearing (gross margin 56.4% vs 57.1%). However this is just the start.
Despite the apparent new air of ‘entente cordiale’ between North and South Korea, the world is still a dangerous place. What with alleged Russian state-involvement in the Salisbury nerve agent attacks, Syria’s use of chemical weapons, ISIS’ ongoing war against the West and the increasing threats posed by organised crime.
Kromek has been awarded an extension to its existing DARPA production contract. The D3S is now fully developed with this award allowing for some further technical capability to be added. The next phase of the SIGMA programme is to plan for the transfer of its roll-out to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
What with North Korean missiles whistling over Japan, supreme leader Kim Jong Un threatening nuclear war against America and numerous other terrorist attacks, the world is undoubtedly a dangerous place. Demonstrated again just a fortnight ago, after a ‘lone wolf’ ISIS extremist, managed to explode a home-made ‘pipe-bomb’ in a busy New York underpass near Times Square.
The first camera deployment in China is a milestone and SPECT is becoming a material financial driver. Preparations are ongoing for other major contract rollouts and we continue to expect EBITDA breakeven this fiscal period. Our target of cash breakeven next year remains unchanged but we recognise that major contract news flow from here should present material upside risk to financial performance.
Graphene may grab all the headlines, but there is another ‘wonder material’ being championed by perhaps Britain’s most unassuming tech-rich University spinout, Kromek. The miracle substance is ‘Cadmium Zinc Telluride’, or CZT for short, which is gaining real traction in the multi-$billion healthcare (eg CT), homeland security and nuclear detection markets.
FY17 results were in line. We are closer to the point where material orders for radiation detection equipment could appear in our forecast horizon. Should these happen there could be a step change in financial performance going forward. Visibility is improving generally but we take a conservative view of forecasts until that point.
Kromek has been awarded another contract for the supply of security screening hardware, the second in as many months. The contract provides for an upgrade to existing equipment for a US customer over a ten year period. We believe this is the longest agreement signed by Kromek to date and we attribute the awarding of this contract to the recent fund raising event.
Blindly following what others do is often a recipe for disaster. However, when an army of ‘super smart’ fund managers snap-up a big holding in a rapidly expanding small-cap that owns ‘disruptive’ technology addressing multi-$billion markets, then it is usually worth taking note. This is exactly what has happened at Kromek, a next generation radiation detection firm. Having just successfully completed its oversubscribed £20m placing and £1m open offer at 20p/share - supported by esteemed investors such as Gervais Williams at Miton (largest shareholder at 19.0%) and Katie Potts (Herald 5.35%), as well as several others such as Schroders (5.0%) and Killik (4.1%).
Kromek is trading in line with expectations and has a burgeoning order pipeline but the ability to close sales at a faster rate has been limited by its balance sheet. Kromek has raised up to £21m in a Placing and Open Offer in order to bolster its financial stability, accelerate sales cycles and unlock additional opportunities.
The best things in life are worth waiting for, or at least that seems to be the case with Kromek, a pioneering radiation detection expert. Since listing on AIM at 51p back in October 2013, the company has not only been busily refining and field testing its next generation CZT (cadmium zinc telluride) technology, but importantly also securing a raft of new orders.
When is the right time to buy high growth smallcaps? Some investors would advise caution due to the risks, yet this is exactly the type of situation that can produce lucrative returns. For us the trick is to identify unSubstantial new military opportunitydervalued stocks that are not only winning new and repeat business – ie a sure-fire sign that customers like what they see – but also the size of their addressable markets is expanding.
Future ‘break-out’ stocks are like gold dust to investors. The problem of course is spotting them earlier enough to benefit. Well, we think we’ve found one in Kromek, a leading global supplier of cutting-edge radiation detectors.
Kromek is punching way above its weight. In February the company announced a landmark $6m contract to supply the US Dept of Defence with 12,000 of its revolutionary ‘on body’ D3S portable radiation detectors to help combat ‘dirty bombs’.
After last week’s deadly terrorist attack in the Turkish capital of Ankara, along with the horrific shootings in Paris and the downing of a Russian airplane in Syria, Western governments are once again on red alert. Worse still, there is now an increasing concern that these atrocities could go nuclear, as Islamic State (ISIS) may have recently acquired enough “highly dangerous" radioactive material from a Syrian warehouse, in order to create a ‘dirty bomb’
If you were lucky enough to be an early investor in Facebook, Uber or Google, then you’ll be well versed in the concept of “disruptive technologies”. Game-changing new inventions though are not the sole preserve of Silicon Valley. Spend a few hours strolling around Kromek’s equally innovative R&D/manufacturing facilities in the UK/US, and you’ll understand why its revolutionary new cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) products could soon change the face of the global medical imaging, homeland security and nuclear detection markets.
The world changed forever on 11th Sept 2001. 2,977 people were killed by 19 al-Qaeda terrorists, who hijacked 4 airplanes and deliberately crashed them into New York’s Twin Towers, the Pentagon and a Pennsylvanian field.
It isn’t a fluke that many of the world’s fastest growing and innovative companies - Uber, Google and Facebook to name just a few - are American. This is because US investors recognise the value in backing early-stage businesses that possess ‘disruptive technologies’ and address large unmet needs.
Kromek Group plc (KMK.L) Final results | accesso Technology (ACSO.L): Trading update and contract extension | Corero Network Security (CNS.L): Profit warning and proposed fund raising
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