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Prelims
Cello has met our profit expectations for the full year with revenues a slightly better and encouragingly Health being the driver with LFL of 4.7% (the smaller Signal unit managed a respectable 3.7%). Investors receive a better than expected dividend which has been increased 10%. Trading momentum has remained strong with good bookings continuing to build visibility. This reflects the strength of the Health offering and greater recognition by customers with average contract size rising. Health has secured new clients through its expansion and the Boston and Chicago expansions appear to be performing. The Signal brand/product offering consolidation has been completed and critically appears to be successful with larger clients. The margin improved 80bps to 9.5% and helped in part by Pulsar turning profitable. There is no update on the VAT issue save the Company as reiterated that it believes its total provision of £3.2m is appropriate (the payment of this is already included in FY116 forecasts). Health will make a payment of £0.9m to a former employer of several employees in Cello bio-consulting to free them off restrictions. The hires in this area are key to boosting momentum in US consulting and matching the strength of UK consulting. Cello had already confirmed trading results for FY15 and the key news today is that strong wins and visibility are being secured. With this in mind and even allowing for the VAT sentiment issue (that should fade) the shares are likely to be worth c100p even on a depressed 7x FY16 EV/EBITDA basis and a fuller valuation would suggest over 130p (10x EBITDA for Health and 8x for Signal). We upgrade to Buy with a 100p TP.