Kape’s trading update confirms good progress. Driven by the core App distribution business, EBITDA has increased by 48% to $4.3m. The disposal of the non-core Media division, following hot on the heels of the Intego acquisition essentially completes Kape’s transition into a wholly focused consumer cybersecurity business. We leave our underlying profit forecasts broadly unchanged (34% EBITDA growth between FY18e and FY19e). While the disposal trims 7% from our FY19 EPS forecasts, we believe that the group’s performance and rating should benefit from the being 100% focused on consumer cybersecurity.
App Distribution revenues grew 14% y-o-y to $26m in H118, primarily driven by CyberGhost, which performed strongly organically and was also consolidated for the full period. The initiative to focus Reimage on more profitable subscription customers is going well, with 40% of sales subscription-based. This shift from one time licenses to recurring subscriptions suppresses revenue but as subscription customers are more profitable this is compensated by higher margins. We modestly raise our FY18e organic profit forecast but leave FY19e unchanged (see Exhibit 1).
Kape has also announced the sale of its Media business to Ecom online. The price is not disclosed but proceeds will be based on a 50% profit share over the next five years. Based on our segment forecast, we estimate the total consideration will be c $1m. The disposal completes the company’s transition to focus exclusively on the consumer cyber security market.
The combination of the Media disposal, CyberGhost growth, Intego acquisition and the ramp of Reimage’s subscription sales is driving big improvements in revenue mix. We estimate subscriptions now account for c 62% of pro-forma revenues. The disposal of Media also lifts our FY19e EBITDA margin forecast by 3.5pp to 19.6%.
With the sale of Media, Kape has essentially completed its strategic transition and is now exclusively focused on consumer cybersecurity. The acquisition of Intego, rising subscription revenues and margins highlight the potential benefits of this strategy for shareholders. In a fragmented market and with cash on the balance sheet, we see scope for Kape to make further value creating deals and to enhance its strategic position further. On our revised forecasts, stripping out $52m cash on the balance sheet, Kape trades at just 15.5x FY19e EPS.
.png)
