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11 Jan 2024
CMD preview: Evolution rather than revolution

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CMD preview: Evolution rather than revolution
WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 375 -2.6 (-0.2%) | Mkt Cap: 4,050m
- Published:
11 Jan 2024 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
17 -
Ahead of its capital market day on January 30th, we discuss in this report how WPP delivered on its previous plan and what we can expect for the new one. Overall, WPP exceeded expectations of the previous plan set in 2020, but the exit momentum is weaker than expected. Looking at the new plan, we think WPP could reiterate its previous mid-term guidance (+2.5% / 3.5% OSG, 15.5% to 16.0% adj. EBIT margin) despite a recent new savings program, implying that the group needs to reinvest a bit more to achieve its organic sales growth guidance. We have reduced estimates by c.-3.5% but increased price target to 790p given peers'' rerating since last update.
WPP exceeded its initial plan overall, but exit momentum is weaker than initially planned
The group overdelivered on most KPIs in 2021 and 2022, but the momentum deteriorated in 2023 and both organic sales and adj. EBIT margin disappointed. This is partly due to tech client weakness and weaker macro but also to some missteps, given underperformance relative to peers.
WPP likely to maintain focus on growth acceleration, simplification, and cost optimization
The group will likely continue its simplification process (network / brand merger) and cost reduction (simplified ERP organization, shared services, campuses ramp up) while investing in fast-growing segments (experience, commerce, and tech). Gen AI will also be an important focus.
WPP could mostly reiterate previous mid-term targets
Based on current market conditions, the group''s positioning, recent momentum (soft with -0.9% organic sales decline in Q4 23e), and expected reinvestment into the business (GBP100m / 150m), we think WPP could guide to 2.5% / 3.5% organic sales growth in the mid-term, but 2024 guidance will likely be c.+1.0%. In the meantime, we expect the group to reiterate its previous adj. EBIT margin guidance (15.5% to 16.0%) despite a recent new savings announcement. This guidance would come well above consensus estimates, but...