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  • 07 Aug 2024

FY 24 guidance cut on China, macro and FX headwind


WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 388 37.3 2.5% | Mkt Cap: 4,187m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL

    • 14 pages


 

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FY 24 guidance cut on China, macro and FX headwind


WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 388 37.3 2.5% | Mkt Cap: 4,187m


  • Published: 07 Aug 2024
  • Author: Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL
  • Pages: 14
  • BNP Paribas Exane


WPP''s Q2 24 trends improved sequentially (OSG -0.5% vs -1.6% in Q1 24) but remained weak relative to peers (-470bp on OSG). Given challenges in China, uncertain macro and adverse FX moves, the group revised down its guidance (c.-3% on adj. EBIT). We continue to think WPP is going in the right direction but that its key strategic initiatives will take time to bear fruit and come with execution risks. We reduce our estimates by c.-1% on average and our TP to GBp720 (from GBp750). We maintain our Neutral rating. FY guidance cut (c.-3% on Adj. EBIT) due to China weakness, uncertain macro and FX headwind WPP now expects organic sales between -1% and 0% (vs 0% to +1% before). This implies -1% to +1% organic sales in H2 24, well behind peers. Considering soft net new business wins in H1, persistent weakness in China and no evidence that tech client spending will rebound, we model -0.1% in H2. Including FX impact, we now expect margin up +10-30bp (vs +20-40bp before). Disposal of FGS Global on attractive multiple but it could be a drag on mid-term OSG WPP announced the disposal of its 50% stake in FGS Global for GBP604m. The transaction allows WPP to crystallize the value of the asset on attractive multiples (c.19x EV/EBITDA 2024 vs 6.4x for WPP) and reduces financial leverage to 1.6x excl. leases. On the other hand, WPP is parting with a fast-growing asset (c.+30bp OSG contribution) generating high margin (+50bp above group level). The transaction should be neutral on 2025 EPS with lower net profit offset by lower financial expenses (debt repayment) and lower minorities. Conf call key highlights (1) Key variables for OSG guidance are China, macro and Tech clients. (2) Group is on track to deliver 60% of the GBP125m annual savings in 2024 (vs 40-50% before). This allows the company to reiterate margin guidance excl. FX despite lower OSG. (3) China to be down double digit for the FY 24 after c.20% in H1. (4) Tech clients to be stable for the FY 24 after...

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