This content is only available within our institutional offering.
26 Oct 2022
In-line net revenues, disappointing margin guidance
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
In-line net revenues, disappointing margin guidance
WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 294 12.9 1.5% | Mkt Cap: 3,172m
- Published:
26 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Ghayor Lina LG | Packer William WP -
Pages:
9 -
WPP reported revenues broadly in line with consensus
WPP reported organic net revenue growth at +3.8% in Q3, 30bps above a conservative sell-side consensus. This implies a 20% 2y stack and a 11% 3y stack (a slight improvement versus Q1/Q2). On the less positive side, Western Continental Europe came in at -2.1%, but this negative performance was largely related to Germany, which had a boost in the previous year from a COVID-19 related contract (excluding this impact, Group growth would have been +4.8% and West. Cont. Europe +2.5%).
Mixed guidance update
The company upgraded (or rather narrowed) its FY22e organic net revenue growth guidance from 6%-7% to 6.5%-7% (high end of previous guidance). On the more negative side, the company lowered the margin guidance from ''up around 50bps improvement'' to ''up 30bps to 50bps''. One reason for that was the weak performance of China (-9% organic growth in Q3), which negatively impacted margins by 20bps.
Confident tone on the conference call and comments from Management
CFO John Roger outlined that the company has good visibility on 80%-85% of the net revenues in Q4, which is a positive in our view. On 2023, WPP CEO Mark Read has outlined good new business momentum and continued investments from clients, who are not pulling back marketing expenses but rather adopting a ''positive attitude''.
Forecast tweaks - We remain Neutral
We upgrade our organic net sales expectations from 6.2% to 6.6% for FY22e, lowering FY23e from 0.4% to 0.1% to reflect the impact of tougher comps. We slightly lower our margins by 10bps to adjust to the new guidance. Bottom line we cut our EPS by 1%/3% for FY22e/23e and our TP by 5% to GBPp820 from GBPp860. Despite growing fears on the growth outlook and earnings trajectory in 2023, we believe that at 7x PE 24e (on our numbers), a lot of the risks are reflected in the current share price. We remain Neutral on WPP.