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27 Feb 2025
Path to recovery is still unclear

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Path to recovery is still unclear
WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 375 13.9 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 4,044m
- Published:
27 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
12 -
Q4 24 miss and underwhelming guidance for 2025 sent WPP shares down c.-15%. Despite important progress in past years (simplification, cost reduction, investment in tech/Data/AI), WPP is still underperforming peers. Given the consolidation in the industry and its relatively weaker positioning, WPP might need to implement more drastic changes or risk being left behind by the other two leaders. We keep a Neutral rating and reduce our TP to GBP 700 (from GBP 830).
Q4 24 weaker than expected with OSG -2.3% vs cons. +0.1%
Q4 24 net revenue declined -6.8% YoY, of which -2.3% was on an organic basis (-550bp vs peers). All regions saw a sequential deterioration vs Q3, with particular softness in the UK (-5.2%) and Row (-4.9%) on high comp base. GroupM (Media business) grew +2.3% but it was offset by a -6.6% decline for Creative and Others and c.-5.3% decline for PR. Despite weak topline, FY24 Adj. EBIT margin was better than expected at 15.0% (+20bp YoY, +50bp YoY in H2 24) thanks to cost efficiencies. FY24 FCF was better than expected at GBP738m (+20% vs cons.) helped by WC inflow.
FY 25 guidance implies adj. EPS -5% YoY
Management expects 2025 organic sales to decline between -2% and 0% (vs cons. +2%, peers'' guidance +2.3%). Group highlights a neutral net new business effect (negative in H1, positive in H2), soft client discretionary spending and macro uncertainties. Despite weak topline trend, management expects flat adj. EBIT margin with operating deleverage, increased AI investment, and FGS global headwind offset by cost efficiencies. Guidance implies c. 84p Adj. EPS (-5% YoY).
Estimates down -6% on weaker OSG and margin
We cut our 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates by c.-6% reflecting a -3% cut in net revenue (-1% OSG vs +2% before) and higher financial charges. Our estimates cut along with a higher discount in our relative to peers approach lead us to revise our TP to GBP700 (from GBP830).