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22 Feb 2024
Recovery likely to be progressive in 2024

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Recovery likely to be progressive in 2024
WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 399 1.6 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 4,306m
- Published:
22 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
13 -
WPP Q4 23/FY 23 came in line with the trading update released at the end of January. The group confirmed FY 24 organic growth/adj. EBIT guidance but financial expenses and tax rate came above estimates, implying c.3/4% consensus EPS cut. 2024 is likely to be back-end loaded with negative organic sales in Q1 before sequential improvement. We remain supportive of WPP''s strategic initiatives (simplification, AI investment, cost optimisation, cross fertilisation) and think they will better position the group going forward. That said, the reorganisation is not over and we continue to think WPP will have to reinvest more to remain competitive, therefore limiting upside on margin. We reduce our EPS estimates by c.-4% and maintain our Neutral rating with 775p TP (from 800p).
Q4 23/FY 23 in line with recent trading update
Main highlights in Q4 were the persistent weakness in North America (-4.1% due to tech, healthcare and retail clients), offset by robust momentum in the UK (+5.1%). GroupM accelerated a bit (+5.7%) but Creative deteriorated (-3.4%).
FY 24 guidance reiterated but financial expenses and tax rate came higher
After +0.9% organic sales growth in 2023, WPP is guiding for 0% to 1% in 2024 (vs VA consensus at +0.8%). Adj. EBIT margin is expected to increase +20bp to +40bp, which seems reasonable given cost reduction initiatives (efficiency gains, VML merger, GroupM simplification). Financial expenses should increase +13% YoY due to debt refinancing at a higher rate. Adj. tax rate is expected to increase to 28% in 2024 and further pressure is expected in the following years.
Conference call highlights
(1) Group expects a slow start to the year (organic sales likely down in Q1) and a progressive recovery, helped by tech clients'' stabilisation. (2) No MandA envelope for 2024 does not mean WPP is not looking for acquisitions. (3) 2024 net debt likely to be stable YoY. (4) China expected to remain challenging in 2024. (5) Pitch environment is more...