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25 Apr 2024
Slow start, acceleration required to meet FY guidance

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Slow start, acceleration required to meet FY guidance
WPP Plc (WPP:LON) | 375 13.9 1.0% | Mkt Cap: 4,044m
- Published:
25 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Langlet Nicolas NL -
Pages:
12 -
WPP''s Q1 24 organic sales momentum was soft (-1.6%, c.-500bps vs. peers) given weakness from tech clients, specialist agencies, China and negative ''net new business''. The group reiterated its FY 24 guidance (0/+1% OSG, +20/+40bps headline EBIT margin excl. FX), which implies a sequential acceleration in the next few quarters. Right now, we think the mid-point of the guidance looks achievable. We continue to think WPP is going in the right direction with its key strategic initiatives, which should help the company to be better positioned and improve margin/FCF conversion in the mid- to long term. That said, the reorganisation is far from over and brings potential execution risks during the implementation process. We remain Neutral with a new TP of 790p (from 780p).
Mid-point of FY 24 guidance looks achievable
Considering soft Q1 24, no rebound in sight for tech clients'' spending and persistent weakness in China, we think the mid-point of the guidance looks achievable (we model +0.4%). There could be upside potential through tech client spending recovery and/or stronger net new business wins.
Conference call main takeaways
(1) Tech client organic sales were -9.5% on flat comp base. Mgt. sees sequential improvement and even growth as the comp base is easier and existing clients increase spending. (2) China recovery was more challenging than expected due to macro and client loss. Q2 expected to remain mostly in line with Q1 (c.-15%). (3) Q2 OSG should improve sequentially with better trends for tech clients partly offset by weakness in specialist agencies and China. (4) Headline margin improvement (+20/+40bps for the FY) will be mostly H2-weighted given higher savings and operating leverage in H2.
Estimates largely unchanged with lower OSG and margin offset by FX
Slightly lower organic sales momentum for 2024 (+0.4% vs +0.6% before), reflecting softer Q1 24 and persistent weakness in China, as well as slightly lower margin (15.0% vs. 15.1%) are...