A mixed YE trading update from the group this morning in our view. Despite a top-line miss vs consensus, the previously guided PBT expectation of a flat y-o-y outcome is expected to be met. For long term bulls this will come as a relief but from our perspective it further illustrates the ex growth nature of the group. We estimate LFL growth (adjusting for last February's Funkin deal) was -3% to Jan'16. We see no top-line respite in FY17, especially for a company like BAG which is almost 100% UK focused relative to other soft-drink peers, and thus feel a cal'16 P/E of 17x with ongoing forecast risk is full. We stay at Hold.
