In line start to the year; forecasts unchanged

The AGM/Q1 update indicates trading has been in line with management expectations. The UK Packaged business has got off to a strong start, with excellent execution against the strategic growth plan. Whilst international progress in Q1 was held back by phasing of shipments and tough comps, FY profitability is expected to grow. With no change to FY PBT expectations, we leave our cautiously set forecasts unchanged. Overall, Nichols deserves a closer look. At the recent finals it clearly laid out th

Nichols - Juicy profits and cash generation

NICL's FY23 results showed good progress made as the Packaged business continued to drive growth through product innovation and geographic expansion. Inflationary pressures were largely mitigated and the benefits from the restructuring of the Out of Home (OoH) business are starting to come through, leading to improved profitability. Free cash flow generation was very strong in the year, resulting in an improved net cash position of £67.0m (vs £56.3m at end-FY22). Given the high levels of cash on

Good progress against strategy & improving growth prospects

Nichols has reported a strong set of finals, growing PBT by 9% y/y to £27.2m £0.2m ahead of our forecast. The results show: (i) good execution against the strategic plan to grow the higher margin Packaged business; (ii) continued momentum in International (+17% revenue); (iii) very good progress in implementing the OoH restructuring; and (iv) mitigation of significant inflation headwinds. The business is now well set-up for the future with a clear strategy set out with these results to accelerat

Second upgrade in 6 months; simplified strategy delivering

Nichols has released an ahead of expectations FY update - a highly pleasing outcome given various headwinds over 2023. International was once again the standout performer whilst the OoH reset delivered benefits earlier than expected. We upgrade our FY23 PBT by 4% (7% cumulative since July) and conservatively nudge up FY24 by 2%. We also lift our 12m TP to 1320p (from 1240p). Following a difficult few years, we firmly feel Nichols has turned the corner. It enters 2024 with good momentum, inflatio

Appointment of CFO; attractive valuation

We welcome today’s news of finding a permanent CFO with extensive PLC and financial experience. There is also a NED change. There is no new trading related comment but with an implied flat H2 PBT required to hit our FY23 PBT forecast, we feel comfortable with our estimates. Having successfully navigated various covid and input cost headwinds as well as right-sizing OOH, we see Nichols now entering a growth phase. It has a clear strategic focus on developing the core Vimto business in the UK

Interims – re-finding its fizz; 3% PBT upgrades

Nichols has had a good H1, delivering financial and strategic progress and maintaining strong international momentum. Revenue grew by 7% and this flowed through to 9% at the adj. PBT level. These results highlight the strength of the business model and its resilient / diversified market position. We are at the early stages of seeing a renewed focus on the Packaged business to drive growth and the interims reinforce the attractions in this area. OoH is firmly on track to deliver the targeted bene

Good quality interim CFO appointment

Interim CFO announced today, David Taylor formerly of Churchill China and who we know well. A good pair of hands with plenty of PLC pedigree and experience in running a multi-national consumer business. Further common touch points being familiarity of Nichols’ customers and a large family shareholding on the register. Overall, we welcome today’s news as it removes an area of uncertainty as Nichols looks to implement the business transformation programme post the OoH strategic review, maintain po

Good start to FY23; FD departure

A solid Q1’23 update from Nichols today with revenue up 4.2% vs a stiff 29% comp. International was the standout feature, led by good momentum being sustained in Africa reinforcing Nichols’ geographic diversity. Inflation continues to be effectively managed. The other main news is the resignation of the CFO. In our view, post the successful OoH strategic review, he leaves Nichols on a much stronger strategic and financial footing. A search for a successor has commenced. With full year PBT expect

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 01 Mar 23

01 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Finals - Strategic reset & pathway to higher profits

With the FY22 outcome well trailed at the Jan y/e update, todays finals are in line. The standout feature is Vimto International growing by 16% - reinforcing Nichols geographical strength. News around a leaner/more profitable OoH business post the strategic review is welcome, but what is clear is that the dominant Packaged business is where the strategic focus and capital allocation will reside going forward. It generates virtually all the profits, is geographically diversified and offers the be

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 11 Jan 23

11 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Vimto brand strength reinforced in 2022

We are impressed with todays YE update, further reinforcing the resilience of the Vimto brand against a difficult consumer and cost backdrop. Revenue grew 14%, with International a key stand out and PBT in line with market expectations (+16% y/y). The OoH strategic review is near complete and will be unveiled at the March finals. We anticipate a robust plan to lift profitability from FY24. There is also good news around succession planning with a new Chair appointed. Outlook commentary for FY23

Good H1 progress with industry pressures well navigated

Nichols has reported a good set of interims, successfully managing sector headwinds. This was led by further UK market share gains and significantly, OoH revenue back above pre-covid levels. Timing and shipment challenges hindered International progress but momentum exiting Q2 has been good. The OoH strategic review is progressing well. A keen focus on value over volume and mitigating actions means no change to current year expectations. However, prudence around industry challenges influence us

AGM – good start to FY22; chairman succession

Today’s AGM signals a good start to FY22. Q1 trading in the UK has been strong, with Vimto value growth an excellent 10.8% whilst OoH continues to show good recovery momentum. International sales after a robust start, softened towards the end of the period. This chiefly reflects a very strong comp and temporary transport logistics disruption to canned drink supplies into Africa in March – now resolved. Overall, the top-line picture is solid. Inflation however remains a concern but to date it is

Strong execution in FY21; 10% 3yr PBT CAGR forecast

Good full year results, as previously flagged, with PBT at the top-end of guidance and another year of strong execution. UK Packaged sales advanced by 8.5% and International growth was a stellar 21% - blended a strong 11% LFL. As flagged back in January, OoH goodwill has been impaired - the full £36.2m on the BS. Ultimately, post a strategic review we expect a leaner and fit-for-purpose OoH business to emerge. Investors should welcome no change to FY22 expectations and high single-digit PBT grow

Premier Foods+ (PFD, House Stock, 139p) - Pension cash contributions suspended

Greggs - Showing us how it's done

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation t

LIBERUM: Genus: Time to go the whole hog?

Carr's Group - An enhanced value creation strategy

Carr’s Group has announced an updated strategy that offers the potential for value realisation and creation from a number of avenues. These include: value realisation of the Engineering Division; the ability to significantly reduce central costs; and longer-term value creation in the Agriculture Division as a focused business with recovery potential and a strategy to leverage its strong market positions for growth.

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

BWMX: 1Q Preview: Moving to the Offensive; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company announcing 1Q24 (March) results after the close on Thursday. We believe, with momentum returning at the Betterware division, JAFRA remaining on a new product and marketing focus, the United States market becoming a larger emphasis and BWMX continuing to offer a compelling (and secure) dividend yield of 8.5%, BWMX remains well positioned to reward investors on multiple levels, and we r

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: 1Q Registered Progress; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the March catalog. March completed a 1Q with material YoY positives, from higher SKU counts, rising cadence of new and debuting products, a return of key favorites and continued reductions in overall discounting levels. We believe Betterware management has been able to capitalize on the return to normalcy for their supply chain to roll out compelling new items, offer normalized pricing

Greggs - A strong finish to FY23

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Mar 24

20th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Growth Companies - Share & share alike Sell in May?

Anpario+ (ANP) - House Stock (from Buy), 208p - Appointment as NOMAD & Broker leads to withdrawal of recommendation.

Anpario+ (ANP, House Stock at 230p) - FY24F upgrades - recovery play

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 20 March 2024

Morning Note – 23 January 2024

Morning Note – 27 February 2024