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05 Nov 2021
First Take: Nichols - 9 mth trading ahead of expectations

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First Take: Nichols - 9 mth trading ahead of expectations
Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,150 -230 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 420.6m
- Published:
05 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Nicola Mallard -
Pages:
4 -
Good sales recovery
The Q3 trading update reports that trading has been ahead of expectations. Revenue has increased 17% in the 9 mths to end Sept, to £107m. UK progress in the Vimto brand was +4.5% (Nielsen data), international growth was 36% (H1 was +42% but this revenue is seasonal) and out of home is recovering with 29% growth in the 9 mths (H1+8.3%). Our current revenue forecast is £138.6m which would imply c£32m of sales in Q4, but the group has already delivered £40m in Q3. Q4 should benefit from some seasonal weighting in the UK, assuming no further COVID restrictions.
PBT guidance lifted
The company now expects Adj PBT for FY21 will be ahead of market expectations (assuming a reasonable Q4/Christmas) and in the range of £21-22m. We were forecasting £18.9m (41.2p). The new range suggests a 2H PBT of c£12.5m after a 1H PBT of £8.9m.
Caution around FY22 margins
However, this upgrade is being assisted by the timing of the COVID recovery and does not necessarily have a major impact on FY22 where we had assumed less COVID impact. Additionally, the group is again flagging margin headwinds from inflation in logistics, materials and labour, hence it leaves its FY22 expectations unchanged. We are forecasting £24.25m, EPS 52.9p. We will review our forecasts for FY21 in light of this new guidance, and also revisit TP / recommendation as market multiples have changed since we last published.