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19 Nov 2020
First Take: Nichols - Out of Home remains weak

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First Take: Nichols - Out of Home remains weak
Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,110 -55.5 (-0.4%) | Mkt Cap: 405.9m
- Published:
19 Nov 2020 -
Author:
Nicola Mallard -
Pages:
4 -
Retail & International progress
Nichols has issued a Q3 update highlighting the ongoing impact of COVID on the business. The core soft drink brand Vimto has continued to outperform the wider market, reporting YTD sales up by 5.8% v 1.9% for the market. International has shown continued momentum with good growth in Africa (10.5% YTD).
Out of Home still affected
However, the virus is still impacting Out of Home (typically 30% of group sales). The group has a slightly different customer mix versus those hospitality operators serving the on-trade, with more exposure to leisure outlets such as cinemas, bowling alleys, leisure centres etc and many of these outlets have remained closed even after lockdown #1 ended. Hence, Q3 revenues were still down 45%. Q4, with a second lockdown, will continue to be affected too.
A cost cutting exercise is underway still – looking at discretionary spend, moving some marketing to FY21, but also a review of the operational structure which is likely to result in the permanent reduction in headcount by Q1 next year.
PBT estimates guided down
Reflecting the continued uncertainty for Q4, the group guides to a PBT of £11-13m this year. This compares to our PBT forecast of £16.7m (EPS of 36.5p) and last year’s PBT of £32.4m. Cash performance is strong with £45m on B/S at end Q3. No guidance issued for FY21 - our forecast is currently £25.6m, EPS 55.9p.