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  • 14 Jan 2022

Nichols : In line at the year end - Hold


Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,150 -230 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 420.6m


  • Investec Bank
    • Nicola Mallard

    • 6 pages


 

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Nichols : In line at the year end - Hold


Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,150 -230 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 420.6m


  • Published: 14 Jan 2022
  • Author: Nicola Mallard
  • Pages: 6
  • Investec Bank


Nichols FY21 update confirmed it had traded in line with expectations and expects to deliver PBT in the £21-22m range. Our PBT forecast of £21.6m sits mid-range and we make no changes to this today. This compares to £11.6m in FY20 but £32.4m in FY19. FY21 revenues increased by 22% to £144m, with higher contributions from all three business units. Out of Home has started to rebuild following the removal of restrictions in 2H. International, after a very strong 1H, will be comfortably ahead (our forecast +24%) and Vimto, in UK Packaged, continues to show good momentum. The numbers above show the group has some way yet to go to recover its full profitability. In some regards this is due to the higher level of inflation it has been seeing in 2H21 and into 2022. It has pricing plans in place, so hopes to largely recover this inflation as the benefit of higher prices fully feed through. The rest of the shortfall is due to the reduced return from Out of Home. This business is still showing a marked shortfall in revenues still vs FY19 (although mainly in 1H21 with a much improved 2H run rate), but, with a high fixed cost base, returns are still impacted. This business is the subject of a review which is likely to result in a (non-cash) write-down in goodwill, but the group will also look to address how it can improve the returns from this route to market. Cash balances closed the year at just shy of £57m, a £9-10m increase on the PY. This gives the group plenty of scope for M&A, although we expect the previous focus for acquisitions will move away from Out of Home. For FY22, the group also confirms its expectations are unchanged. Our PBT forecast of £25.2m is in line with consensus. In FY23E, we expect the group to be moving back to the c.£30m profit figure it has achieved in the past.

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