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12 Jan 2023
Nichols : Prudent outlook for FY23 given headwinds - Hold

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Nichols : Prudent outlook for FY23 given headwinds - Hold
Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,140 -114 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 416.9m
- Published:
12 Jan 2023 -
Author:
Matthew Webb | Nicola Mallard -
Pages:
6 -
Nichols’ FY22 trading update provided revenue data and confirmed the group expects to report PBT in line with market expectations.
On the top line, the group has delivered 14% growth overall, which reflects a strong International performance (+15%) plus the recovery in the Out of Home market. Sales in this category were up 43% in the full year, but this was largely weighted to 1H, with the revenue growth slowing to a more normal 5% in 2H. UK Packaged showed more modest growth, with Nielsen data showing an increase of 3.4% in the Vimto brand value to December 3, 2022.
Our full-year PBT of £25.2m shows EBIT margins holding steady vs FY21 at 15.2%, indicating the group has been able to offset/mitigate the inflationary pressures seen in FY22. It changed a bottling relationship in the year, which is likely to have helped to some degree.
During the past year, a review has been underway into the Out of Home (OOH) business, which saw returns impacted significantly in the pandemic. Despite revenues recovering, they still sit below an acceptable level. The outcome of the review will be reported with results in early March; we do not anticipate the group will wholly exit this operation but expect to see some rationalisation. The benefits of any actions are not expected to be realised until FY24, and in FY23 we may actually see some negative impact as the business is rationalised ahead of costs being removed.
With this factor and ongoing inflationary pressures, the group is flagging that it does not expect to see much profit growth in FY23 vs FY22. We had only modest growth (£25.7m, EPS 53.4p) ahead of this update but we trim this slightly to £24.9m, EPS 51.7p. We still anticipate a bounce-back in FY24 (to £27.6m) as the OOH returns improve.