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05 Nov 2021
Nichols : Upgrade numbers and move to Hold - Hold

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Nichols : Upgrade numbers and move to Hold - Hold
Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,128 338.3 2.7% | Mkt Cap: 412.3m
- Published:
05 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Nicola Mallard -
Pages:
6 -
After an encouraging Q3, Nichols is lifting its FY21 expectations. It reported 17% revenue growth for the 9 mths, an acceleration in Q3 vs 1H (+13.8% growth). The UK packaged performance remains robust, despite the return to more normal trading conditions, with Nielsen showing +4.5% growth in the Vimto brand value YTD. Nichols’ own performance typically outperforms this as Nielsen does not perfectly mirror the group’s distribution base.
International remained strong (+36% growth 9 mths), with Africa performing well. This business is seasonal (depending on shipment schedules) so we do anticipate a quieter Q4. However, FY21E should still be ahead by over 20%.
Out of Home continued to recover, although Q3 comps from last year also reflected the absence of restrictions. Q4 comparisons will be easier as restrictions were reintroduced later in 2020, impacting on the Christmas performance. Overall we increase our group revenue forecast by c.3% (£4m).
This flows through to an increased PBT. Our FY21E PBT increases to £21.6m, 47.2p (from £18.9m, 41.2p EPS). As this is more timing led, we do not make as large an FY22E adjustment, lifting from £24.2m, 52.9p to £25.1m, EPS 54.7p. Although revenues in FY22E should top the pre COVID highs of 2019, we remain cautious on margins due to the process of recovering current cost inflation and also the ongoing investment in the Middle East (due to the sweetened beverage tax). This investment should continue to reduce and we expect margins to build further, to the high teens, in FY23E.
We revisit TP. We continue to base the TP on FY22E (with a more modest profit uplift of 4%) but as multiples in the beverage sector have reduced, this more than offsets the upgrade, leaving our TP lower at 1310p (from 1424p). With the TP now offering upside to the share price, we move from Sell to Hold.