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07 Nov 2024
Learnings from the CMD

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Learnings from the CMD
Nichols plc (NICL:LON) | 1,150 -230 (-1.7%) | Mkt Cap: 420.6m
- Published:
07 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Sahill Shan -
Pages:
3 -
The CMD was well received with meaningful insight into strategic and financial ambitions. Management sees attractive growth in existing markets and a clear margin improvement opportunity. We see International as particularly exciting. Combined, this gives line of sight to 50% PBT growth to £45m in the mid-term and EPS of 92.5p (8.5% 5-year CAGR). Investors should also factor in a model that remains highly cash generative, thereby underpinning a robust dividend outlook and the possibility of further special DPS distribution and M&A in the future. Between FY25-30 we estimate scope for a significant c.£170m (40% of market cap) to be returned in total dividend distribution (ex M&A). Relative to the growth/TSR potential set out at the CMD, the rating is low vs historic levels. We maintain our Buy and 1440p TP (13x cal’25 EV/EBITDA).