President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): Update in Argentina | Jadestone Energy (JSE LN); HOLD, £0.60: Update in Australia | Ophir Energy (OPHR LN): Discontinuing Coverage | Soco International (SIA LN) (not covered): Operation update | EnQuest (ENQ LN); HOLD, £0.25: 1Q19 update | Panoro Energy (PEN NO) (not covered): 1Q19 results | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)1,6; BUY, SEK85: To repurchase shares | BW Offshore to spin off E&P business
| Tullow Oil (TLW LN); REDUCE, £2.00: Acquisition in Nambia
Companies: PPC JSE OPHR PHAR ENQ PEN BWO TLW TETY
Sound Energy (SOU): Well Result and Strategic Update | Ophir Energy (OPHR): Completion of Acquisition
Companies: Sound Energy Plc Ophir Energy
We are discontinuing coverage on Ophir Energy as the company has been acquired by Medco.
Companies: Ophir Energy
Ophir Energy (OPHR LN): HOLD, £0.55; Completion of Medco acquisition | Sound Energy (SOU LN) (not covered): Operational update, Eastern Morocco
Companies: Ophir Energy Sound Energy Plc
Block Energy (BLOE): Result of £12 million Placing | Cairn Energy (CNE): AGM Statement | Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG): Proposed $10 million Placing | Lekoil (LEK): Resignation of CFO | Ophir Energy (OPHR): Sale of Mexico licence | SDX Energy (SDX): Q1 Results | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG): Production Test Update
Companies: BLOE CNE FO LEK OPHR UKOG SDX
Ophir Energy (OPHR LN); HOLD, £0.55: Medco offer accepted | Exillon Energy (EXI LN) (not covered): February production in Russia | Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN)6; Speculative Buy, £2.20: 4Q18 results | SDX Energy (SDX LN/CN)1,6: BUY, £0.65; Transferring coverage
Companies: OPHR EXI NOG SDX
Ophir Energy (OPHR LN); HOLD, £0.55: Increased final offer from Medco | Energean Oil & Gas (ENOG LN) (not covered): FY18 results | EnQuest (ENQ LN); HOLD, £0.25: FY18 results | Serinus Energy (SENX LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £0.25: 4Q18 results | Aminex (AEX LN)1 (not covered): Farm-out update in Tanzania | Nigeria to sell down stake in JV to 40% | Maurel & Prom (MAU FP): FY18 results
Companies: OPHR ENOG ENQ SEN AEX MAU
Medco has made a final offer of 57.5p/sh (previously 55p/sh) to which the Ophir board has agreed. The offer would only be increased if another offer comes in from a third party. Coro Energy has decided not to make a formal offer. It had considered offering £0.40 per share in cash plus shares in Coro.
Ophir Energy (OPHR LN); HOLD, £0.55: 4Q18 results | Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.80: 4Q18 results | Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN)1,6; Speculative Buy, £2.20: Valuation update | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN); BUY, £2.40: Dividend | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): Farm out in Mozambique
Companies: OPHR CNE NOG TGL ENI
FY18 production of 29.7 mboe/d (proforma including Santos assets) had already been reported. YE18 net debt was US$35 mm (GMP FEe: US$35 mm). YE18 2P Reserves were 70.1 mmboe (+42%), principally driven by +23.3 mmboe through the Santos acquisition.
President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): Independent reserves report in Argentina | Ophir Energy (OPHR LN): HOLD, £0.55; Sinphuhorm update | Pan Orient Energy (POE LN) (not covered): Drilling program update | Angus Energy (ANGS LN) (not covered): Equity placing | Eni (ENI IM) (not covered): FY18 results | Dana Gas: FY18 prelim results
Companies: PPC OPHR POE ANGS ENI
G3 Exploration (G3E LN) (not covered): Operational update in China | Ophir Energy (OPHR LN): HOLD, £0.55; Recommended cash offer for Ophir | Lundin Petroleum (LUPE SS) (not covered): FY18 results | Anglo African Oil & Gas (AAOG LN) (not covered): Congo well encounters oil at deeper horizon
Companies: G3E OPHR LUNE AAOG
The boards of Ophir and Medco have agreed a recommended acquisition of Ophir by Medco at £0.55/sh, valuing Ophir at c. £361 mm. The acquisition is conditional on amongst other things, a courtsanctioned scheme of arrangement which needs 75% shareholder approval. The Ophir board intends to recommend unanimously the transaction to Ophir Shareholders. The company expects the scheme will become effective in 1H19.
At the request of Ophir, the Takeover Panel has extended the deadline for Medco to either announce a firm intention offer for Ophir or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, until 5.00 pm, 31 January 2019.
FY18 production was 29,700 boe/d (GMP FEe: 25 mboe/d), 8% ahead of guidance with Madura, Sampang and Block 12W contributing 18,000 boe/d (GMP FEe: 15 mboe/d).
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Technical review and operational update
Companies: Hurricane Energy Plc
For this Monthly, we are delighted that Rooney Nimmo and 24Haymarket have allowed us to reproduce a recent report they jointly published, entitled An analysis of UK exits (2015-2019), which provides a granular analysis by sector of the activity in our dynamic private companies world. We hope you find the insights of interest.
Companies: AVO AGY ARBB ARIX CLIG ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI SCE TRX SHED VTA
In the midst of another attempted takeover by stealth, Petropavlovsk PLC (LSE: POG) announced their trading results for H1 2020 which leaves them on track to deliver one of their best years ever, operationally and financially, with more to come in 2021. This is down to the perseverance, skillset and hard work of the workforce out in the Amur Region and their CEO Dr Pavel Maslovskiy, who has staked his reputation on the successful build out of the POX plant. Any corporate raider (and shareholder alike) should realise, whether it be Vekselberg or UGC, that without the support of Dr Maslovskiy you won’t win the hearts and minds of the workforce essential for the smooth running of the organisation. Meanwhile, the gold price has run through $1,900/oz; clearly a positive for this leveraged business. Incorporating this and the results into our modelling delivers a new Target Price of 50p and the set of financials shown in the right-hand column.
Companies: Petropavlovsk Plc
Companies: JSE HUR RDSA
Jubilee Metals successfully processes chrome tailings in South Africa to produce chrome concentrate and PGMS. It also owns the commissioned Sable copper refinery at Kabwe in Zambia and is looking to build a zinc-lead treatment plant at Kabwe next to the Sable refinery to process old tailings from the Kabwe mine. Today Jubilee announces that it has secured access rights to process 2Mt of Run-Of-Mine material grading in excess of 2% copper in Zambia with the potential to add a further 2.5Mt of tailings – Project “Roan”; an as yet an undisclosed project location in Zambia. This material will be upgraded at the “Roan” site with the concentrate shipped off to Jubilee's Sable Refinery to produce copper cathode. Initial target is set at 10kt contained copper/yr from Roan, and Jubilee hopes to begin production in 4 months' time with full production reached in 8 months – advanced preparations have been made, plans drawn up and discussion with equipment manufacturers already accomplished – Jubilee is ready to hit the ground running.
Companies: Jubilee Metals Group Plc
Centamin (CEY LN) – H2 profits rise 280% as company maintains 2020 production guidance | Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) - BUY– H1/20 production in at 27koz with FY20 guidance reiterated at 55koz, Tulkubash
funding closure on course for YE20 | Edenville Energy* (EDL LN) – Rukwa coal operations restart | Pensana Rare Earths (PRE LN) – Final drilling results from Longonjo | Serabi Gold* (SRB LN) – Extension to drawdown period for the convertible loan | Versarien (VRS LN) - Launch of graphene enhanced protective face mask
Companies: CEY CGH EDL PRE SRB VRS
Hargreaves’ FY20 results are very solid indeed. As previously reported, the only noticeable impact from COVID was in the slippage of Blindwells’ land sales, which were due to conclude during the lockdown period. Site activity has resumed and sales remain on track to conclude in the current year. A final dividend of 4.5p has been declared and the outlook statement is measured but confident. We reintroduce forecasts today, effectively reinstating our pre-COVID expectations. Hargreaves is well positioned to deliver a period of significant, renewed growth with the prospect of a double digit dividend yield from FY22 as HRMS profits are distributed.
Companies: Hargreaves Services Plc
United has announced that it has successfully negotiated an 18 month extension to its Walton Morant licence, offshore Jamaica, in what could be a pivotal moment for the Company. United will assume a 100% working interest, and will complete a work programme to further de-risk the high-graded Colibri prospect ahead of a drill-or-drop decision in 2022. We view the award of the Walton Morant licence as a huge endorsement of the United team and its capabilities to operate a frontier, deepwater licence. We increase our risked valuation of the Colibri prospect to US$68.3m or 7.1p per share and our Company valuation to US$162.2m or 17p per share. Unrisked, our valuation of the Colibri prospect increases to US$752.7m or 78.7p, underlining its potential. We set our price target in line with our risked NAV at 17p, a 507% premium to the current share price, and reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Companies: United Oil
Civil works have started at Europa’s Wressle oil field, keeping the project on track for start-up in H2 2020 when it will more than double production and materially boost cash flow. This project is not only economically attractive, but it will also underpin Europa’s pursuit of additional exploration and development opportunities.
Companies: Europa Oil
The stock is up 6% at pixel time, which shows rather good prowess from management, as it also cut (for good) the dividend in half. As investors swallow the bitter pill, the low-carbon shift (and promises of higher valuations) make it easier to digest. Also helping was a decent cash generation in this quarter, thanks to BP’s trading unit.
Companies: BP Plc
Salt Lake Potash has received commitments to raise A$15m through the placement of unsecured zero-coupon Convertible Notes to Equatorial Resources (ASX:EQX) and institutional investors. The Convertible Notes have been structured as deferred equity with zero coupon and mandatory conversion into equity at the lower of 45c/share or a 5% discount to any future equity raising of at least A$10m. These funds will enable Salt Lake Potash to continue to develop Lake Way to the project schedule through July as they finalise debt financing. Plant practical completion and first SOP sales remain on schedule for the March 2021 quarter. The debt financing process in its final stages and with an agreement expected to be executed within weeks.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Ltd.
Swedish Stirling is building momentum with the signing of a new agreement with Glencore for an additional 88 PWR BLOK waste gas to energy units. This deal is with South Africa’s largest ferro chrome smelter and shows that the company’s technology is gaining acceptance as a go to solution in the industry in South Africa. Swedish Stirling has benefited from its in-country team which has meant that COVID 19 restrictions has not prevented progress. The company now has a strong pipeline of deals which should drive sales in future years.
Companies: GLEN GLEN STRLNG
GeoPark (GRPK US)C; Target price US$20: Cash tax reduction and high impact drilling– The only item of interest in the 2Q20 financials was the fact that GeoPark did not pay any cash tax in 2Q20 (we were carrying a payment of US$40 mm). This explains why the cash balance at the end of June was so much higher than we expected at the time of the 2Q20 operating update in July). This also reflects important positive changes in Colombia. First, US$20-25 mm cash taxes in 2020 have been deferred to 2021 leaving only US$15-20 mm due in 2H20. In addition, Colombia is accelerating the reimbursement of income tax credits. GeoPark has already collected US$15 mm in July that will offset the remaining 2H20 cash tax. Overall in 2020, the company could potentially obtain a total refund of US$25 mm of income tax (out of which US$15 mm is firm and collected in July) plus US$15-20 mm of VAT. The key wells to focus on in 2H20 will be the 1-2 wells to be drilled at CPO-5 (GeoPark WI: 30%). While these wells are expected to increase production, they will also allow the company to start derisking the exploration upside associated with the block. The first well will be a development/appraisal well in Indico where the oil water contact has not been encountered yet. The second well is an exploration well at Aguila targeting the same play concept. The share price continues to trade at ~45% discount to our Core NAV of ~US$19 per share. Overall there could be 350-700 mmboe gross prospective resources across its Llanos blocks (including CPO-5). Our target price of US$20 per share reflects our ReNAV and attributes only ~US$1 per share to exploration. It represents over 100% upside to the current levels.
IN OTHER NEWS
Frontera Energy (FEC CN): 2Q20 results | Gran Tierra (GTE LN/US/CN): 2Q20 results | i3 Energy (I3E LN): Acquisition of Canadian assets and £30 mm funding | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Production update in Brazil | Parex Resources (PXT CN): 2Q20 results
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): Licence extension in Vietnam and RBL confirmation
bp (BP LN): 2Q20 results and change of strategy | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN): Technical update in the UK | Neptune Energy: Discovery in Norway | Spirit Energy: Dry hole in Norway
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1H20 results
Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN): 2Q20 results | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Acquires 10% Interest In new Nigerian oil export system | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): 2Q20 results
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
10/08/2020: Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC LN) – 2Q20 results
11/08/2020: JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) – 2Q20 results
13/08/2020: Africa oil (AOI CN/SS) – 2Q20 results
Companies: BP/ FEC GENL GPRK I3E PXT PHAR HUR KOS MAHAA EGY
HSP has announced positive results this morning, with a 30% increase in underlying EPS (continuing) for the year to May ‘20. Underlying PBT declined; however the prior year included land sales which did not recur in FY2020A. Stripping these out, profits were ahead YoY. Net debt rose marginally to £28.1m (prior year: £24.5m), largely on the back of accelerated mining activities (positive weather conditions) and delays to the sale of Blindwells, where the company had invested £8m; and is expected to remain steady during the coming year as the group continues to invest in Specialist Earthworks (with a switch to mainly leasing debt on HS2 plant funding). Having deferred the interim dividend on the back of Covid-19, the Board is now reinstating the dividend with a 4.5p payment in respect of the final DPS, reflecting the forward visibility it now feels it has. Given this forward visibility, we would also expect forecasts to be restored to the market in the near future, these having previously been withdrawn.
Rio delivered a decent set of H1 results, especially considering the COVID-19 disruption. Once more, Iron ore single-handedly came to the group’s rescue and (largely) compensated for varying issues in other divisions, thereby facilitating $2.5bn of dividends. While we don’t expect a magical near-term turnaround in the troubled divisions, iron ore’s sustained resilience should provide healthy comfort – also from a dividend perspective. Hence, Rio remains our preferred diversified mining bet.
Companies: Rio Tinto Plc