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17 Dec 2020
First Take: Hunting - Survival mode

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First Take: Hunting - Survival mode
Hunting PLC (HTG:LON) | 321 -19.3 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 525.4m
- Published:
17 Dec 2020 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Thomas Rands, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
4Q as expected
Group EBITDA to 30 November (Dec YE) was $26m, with a break-even outcome to November. We expect little to no contribution from December, putting the likely FY20 outturn at the bottom of the current Factset consensus range of $24-$44m.
International markets saw lower activity, while activity in the US onshore market picked up from September/October lows in the rig count and frac crew utilisation. The Titan business has seen improved trading during 2H, with November broadly break-even, aided by a lower cost base. The Titan order book is now at its highest level since March. This is supportive of an improved y-o-y EBITDA outturn in FY21, we believe. Asian markets continue to be mixed, with Europe still loss-making.
The run-rate into 2021 looks challenging, although consensus FY21 EBITDA is only $38m (we put our out-dated forecasts under review).
The balance sheet remains healthy with net cash of $94m (pre-IFRS 16 leases), which helps HTG weather this storm and provides firepower for bolt-on acquisitions to take advantage of the current industry disruption.
Management are preserving cash with a focus on inventory levels which have reduced in 2H, but are still at c.$300m. This is worth c.70% of the current mkt cap and if not written down further provides a level of downside protection. Capex for FY20 is expected to be c.$17m.
Energy transition
With a no meaningful recovery in sight, Hunting remains in survival mode as it steadily aligns itself to the global energy transition. Management are focused on growing the non-oil & gas activities (from the current c.10% of sales), especially the electronics and advanced manufacturing capabilities.
Reduced Drilling Tools exposure
On 15 December, HTG’s US business announced it had divested its Drilling Tools business and assets to Rival Downhole Tools in exchange for a 23.5% equity position in the enlarged Rival business. This allowed it to keep exposure to the onshore drilling tools rental market but with reduced capital requirements.
Rec/TP and forecast under review – earnings recovery to take much longer
We put our forecasts, recommendation and TP under review.