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02 Sep 2022
Hunting : Timing the turn – upgrading to Buy - Buy

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Hunting : Timing the turn – upgrading to Buy - Buy
Hunting PLC (HTG:LON) | 328 -8.2 (-0.8%) | Mkt Cap: 538.6m
- Published:
02 Sep 2022 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Thomas Rands, CFA -
Pages:
11 -
Industry capex upcycle: The tight global supply of both oil and gas was driving up prices before the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Higher energy prices and the need for greater energy security has changed investor and political sentiment towards the sector. Years of industry under-investment has finally caught up with the supply-demand balance. We believe Hunting is now well placed to benefit from the coming multi-year investment cycle.
US Titan growth: US onshore activity has recovered strongly this year. Labour shortages and capital discipline could limit further near-term upside in the US onshore rig count. Hunting Titan products have aided industry efficiency improvements, but competitors have closed the technology gap, especially in perforating systems, holding back a return to previous peak margins.
International recovery: Further revenue and profit recovery could be driven by a recovery in international (non-US) markets, especially Asia Pacific, which had $146m of revenue in FY19 and, we estimate, only $91m in FY24E.
Forecasts: We revise our forecasts to reflect the 1H outturn and the reiterated 2H22 guidance. Despite the worsening global macro outlook, we see upside risk to our new estimates if energy prices remain elevated.
M&A: The strong net cash balance sheet is helpful to fund both opportunistic M&A and higher working capital from recent contract wins. The new asset backed debt facility provides firepower if larger M&A deals appear.
Steady dividend growth: We expect Hunting to steadily increase the dividend pay-out as earnings and cash generation improve.
Organic oil recovery: Recent licence extension and positive customer traction could start to unlock its potential to be a material profit contributor.
New 350p TP provides 24% upside: Our TP increases by 125p to 350p.