
22 Oct 2024
Hunting : Titan weakness drives guidance downgrade - Buy
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Hunting : Titan weakness drives guidance downgrade - Buy
Hunting PLC (HTG:LON) | 331 6.6 0.6% | Mkt Cap: 543.4m
- Published:
22 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Joel Spungin, CFA -
Pages:
7 -
Solid Q3 (excluding Titan): Hunting has generated c$87m EBITDA year to date, implying Q3 EBITDA of c$27m, up slightly yoy. The YTD EBITDA margin is running at c12%, in line with H1. This is despite ongoing weakness in Titan, which was EBITDA breakeven in the quarter. The Q3 order book stood at $652m, down c$48m from H1. The $60m organic oil recovery order was recognised in Q3, offset by execution of major orders in OCTG and Subsea. The group had $4.6m cash at the end of Q3 (vs $9.7m borrowings at H1) – this had risen to $31m by 11th October due to collection of KOC receivables.
Hunting Titan struggles: Hunting Titan/Perforating Systems has unfortunately seen no recovery in recent weeks. US onshore demand remains depressed, and this is now likely to continue for some time given the uncertainty created by the US elections and weakening in gas prices through October. As a result, this division is unlikely to see much pickup before 2025, despite the cost actions taken earlier in the year. Further cost-cutting is being planned with management changes having been implemented.
Other areas trading in line: OCTG is performing well, with first revenues recognised on the KOC order in the quarter. Subsea is performing in line with expectations, with good progress on its titanium stress joint orders for Exxon Mobil Guyana. Advanced Manufacturing is also trading in line.
Estimate changes: Due to the weakness in Titan, some deferral of orders to 2025 and a generally softer trading environment, management has reduced EBITDA guidance to $123-126m. We reduce EBITDA to $123.7m (9%) for FY24E and to $155.1m (-10%) for FY25E. Our EPS estimates are reduced to 31c (-12%) and 44.5c (-17%). We raise our forecast for year-end cash (excluding leases and shareholder loan) to $68.5m. We reduce our PT to 565p from 665p, reflecting our lower estimates.