Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BP. We currently have 38 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
BP (BP LN) (not covered): Juniper first gas in Trinidad | Exillon Energy (EXI LN) (not covered): July Production in Russia | Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN) (not covered): Abu Sennan Drilling Update in Egypt | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)6; HOLD, SEK60: 2Q17 Results
Companies: BP/ EXI RKH TETY
Jadestone Energy (JSE CN); Speculative Buy, C$1.10: Production strategy continues to take shape | BP (BP LN) (not covered): 2Q17 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): Ellesmere Port planning application validated | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) (not covered): 1H17 results | Genel Energy (GENL LN); HOLD, £0.90: 1H17 results
Companies: BP/ IGAS JKX GENL
BP reported underlying replacement cost profit for 2Q17 of US$684m generating EPS of USc3.47, down 10% YoY and down 55% QoQ. The underlying results are net of a pre-announced pre and post-tax exploration write-off of US$753m, mainly associated with Angola and equivalent to USc3.81 per share. The results beat consensus EPS, which had been falling sharply, of USc2.8; our own forecast was USc3.77. While underlying cash flow generation in the quarter was strong at US$6.9bn, Gulf of Mexico related payments were larger than we expected and the company was overall cash negative in the quarter by US$0.7bn after dividend payments with gearing increasing to 28.8%. We are Buyers of BP with a 520p/share Target Price, but prefer Shell (Buy, 2,500p/share TP).
The group reported its Q2 17 results, which were 30% above expectations at $684m, driven by the downstream division. By division: 1) In the upstream division, the group reported $795m vs. a loss last year. Higher oil prices, but also higher production helped. Production for the quarter was 2,431mbpd, up 9.98% yoy, and up 7% from the previous quarter due to the impacts of the Abu Dhabi concession renewal. For the third quarter, production should be flat compared to Q2 17. 2) In the downstream division, the group reported an adjusted net income of $1.4bn with higher fuel marketing and refining results which were, nevertheless, offset by a significantly lower supply and trading contribution. Refining benefited from stronger refining commercial optimisation. For the third quarter, the group expects a similar level in the industry refining margin and the North American heavy crude oil differential to remain under pressure. On a cash flow basis, operating cash flow, excluding the Gulf of Mexico oil spill payment, was $6.9bn, which is enough to cover both the dividend and capex. The dividend is maintained at $0.10 per share for this quarter. In addition, the results were impacted by a $750m charge for unsuccessful exploration campaigns in Angola.
BP will release 2Q17 earnings on 1 August. We forecast clean replacement cost EPS of USc3.77, around 6% below the median consensus, down 2% YoY and down 51% QoQ. However, BP has pre-advised a ~US$750m pre and post-tax exploration write-off associated with the relinquishment its 50% interest in Block 24/11 offshore Angola which will not be treated as a non-operating item and is itself equivalent to around USc3.8 per share. We expect underlying cash flow generation, excluding the impact of Gulf of Mexico related payments of US$5.5bn, but expect the company to be overall cash negative after cash dividend, capex and Gulf of Mexico payments to the tune of around US$0.5bn in the quarter. As a result, we expect gearing to continue to increase, albeit modestly, to 28.2%. We forecast a maintained dividend of USc10 per share. We amend our FY17 EPS forecast to reflect our revised 2Q17 earnings forecast.
Andes Energia (AEN LN) (not covered): Possible transaction with Mercuria | TAG Oil (TAO CN)1 ; HOLD, C$0.75: Fiscal year-end 2017 results and 2018e capital program greater than anticipated | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN) (not covered): Equity and Convertible Bond Offering | La Francaise de l’Energie (LFDE FP)1,7; Speculative Buy, EUR40: Further progress in Northern France | Serica Energy (SQZ LN) (not covered): Production update in the North Sea | PetroNeft Resources (PTR LN) (not covered): 2016 Results in Russia | Rosneft (ROSN LN) (not covered): US$1.1 bn transaction with Beijing Gas San Leon Energy (SLE LN)
Companies: AEN TAO HUR SQZ PTR ROSN BP/ SLE
BP (BP LN) (not covered); Trinidad gas discoveries | San Leon (SLE LN) (not covered): Revised terms on settlement agreement with Avobone | Volga Gas (VGAS LN) (not covered): May production in Russia | Genel Energy (GENL LN); Speculative Buy, £1.10: Taq Taq production
Companies: BP/ SLE VGAS GENL
We forecast BP to grow Upstream production by 5.4% pa to 2021, boosted by the deals done at year end. That helps to nearly quadruple EPS, driving a sharp improvement in multiple ratings and returns. However, we see little scope to neutralise the scrip dilution before 2021. Translation of the targets BP has set under real world conditions is uncertain but there could be upside to our forecasts if they were to be delivered in full. We initiate on BP with a 520p per share Target Price and a Buy recommendation. However, we prefer Shell which has similar upside to our 2,500p per share Target Price, but should have more than double the cash yield from next year and has a more robust business mix to low oil prices.
BP (BP LN) (not covered) & Kosmos Energy (KOS US) (not covered): Gas discovery offshore Senegal
Companies: BP Kosmos Energy
International equities progressed in a confident manner yesterday. Primarily this was reflecting strong US corporate earnings which, according to Factset, are set to see S&P500 constituents report the best Q1 growth since 2011, although similarly impressive results are also being delivered from Europe, with profits from the Stoxx 600 apparently on track for a 20% hike on the comparable period. The news that Greece has apparently reached a bail-out deal with its international creditors, confidence that Macron will be safely installed as France’s new president this Sunday, together with the wide expectation that Theresa May will secure the Tories a much larger majority in just over a month from now, while things have gone surprisingly quiet on the North Korea front, all contributed to positive investor sentiment. All three principal US indices closed marginally firmer, with gains in techs and industrials being offset by weakness amongst auto and energy stocks, which fell 0.5% as a result of the continuing sell-down of crude futures during the session. Asian equities, however, were a little upset by Q2 results from Apple that were released after the US close, showing that iPhone sales had surprisingly contracted during the period, apparently due to buyers deferring purchase decisions following media reports of future products, meaning revenues missed analysts’ best expectations. Markets in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for a holiday today, leaving Chinese equities to start regional trading slightly lower Wednesday morning, where its remained to the close, dragging Taiwan’s tech-sensitive Tiaex index down with it, although the ASX was hardest hit of the local bourses as weak minerals prices knocked miners in this commodity-heavy index while its financials also became subject to profit-taking. In Europe, assuming the Greek government commits the terms of its ‘Preliminary Technical Agreement’ to legislation by its target date of 16th May, Euro-area Finance Ministers should meet on 22nd May to approve disbursement measures, thereby providing additional short-term relief for Continental traders. The only UK macro release scheduled for today is April’s Construction PMI figures, while the EU is due to provide its Q1’2017 GDP and March Producer Prices. The US will deliver weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, Its ADP Employment Change, Markit Services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April. Most importantly, this afternoon the Fed is due to release a Monetary Policy Statement, which could provide greater insight into the health of the economy and momentum going forward, although the next hike in the Discount rate is broadly expected by investors to instead be delivered following June’s meeting . There are a good number of UK corporates due to release earnings or trading updates this morning including Sainsbury (SBRY.L), Imperial Brands (IMB.L), Sage group (SGE.L), Paddy Power Betfair (PPB.L), Direct Line Insurance (DLG.L), JD Weatherspoon (JDW.L), OneSavings Bank (OSB.L), Quantum Pharma (QP..L) and Centamin (CEY.L). London, however, is expected to pick up on the mood during Far Eastern trading, to open slightly weaker as investors reflect on the disappointment conveyed by the world’s biggest company by market capitalisation and its dependence on the continuing success of its lead product. The FTSE-100 is seen opening around 10 points weaker in early trade.
Companies: AAU PREM AHCG BP/ MTFB
Trinity Exploration and Production (TRIN LN) (not covered): FY16 results | Madalena Energy (not covered) (MVN CN): FY16 results | BP (BP LN) (not covered): 1Q17 results | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)6 ; BUY, SEK70: 1Q17 Results | Ophir Energy (OPHR LN); REDUCE, £0.90: Further progress towards FID of Fortuna
Companies: TRIN MVN BP/ VET TETY OPHR
BP reported better than expected results with adjusted net income at $1.5bn compared to $1.2bn expected. By division 1) In the upstream division, underlying results came at $1.37bn compared to a loss of $747m a year ago. The increase was driven by higher liquids and gas realizations and higher production including the impact of the Abu Dhabi ADCO concession renewal. Production was 2.4mbpd up 3% yoy due to the ramp up of major projects. The second quarter production should be broadly flat compared to the first quarter. New upstream major projects are on track: Trinidad onshore compression project started up, another in ramp up, and two more in the commissioning phase. 2) In the downstream division, the underlying results came at $1.74bn down 4% yoy. Fuels business results ($1.2bn) were impacted by a higher level of turnaround activity and a lower trading performance (but still strong). Lubricants came in slightly higher than a year ago ($393m) while the petrochemicals business was up 30% to $149m. For the second quarter, the group expects an improved industry refining margins to be offset by a higher level of turnaround and North American heavy crude differentials. 3) The Rosneft contribution increased to $99m in Q1 17. Cash flow Operating cash flow increased strongly to $4.4bn, excluding expenses related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, from $3bn a year ago. Excluding working capital movements the group generated positive free cash flow for this quarter despite a small $500m disposal and dividend payments of $1.3bn. Net debt at end Q1 17 was $38.6bn compared to $30bn a year ago, increasing gearing to 28%, at the high end of its 20-30% target range. The dividend was unchanged at $0.1/share Capex for the Q1 17 was $3.5bn compared to $4.5bn a year ago. The full year guidance is unchanged at $15-17bn. Divestments only amounted to $0.3bn and are expected to be in the $4.5-$5.5bn range for the full year. Strategic progress On the strategic progress, BP’s major project programme is on track to provide 800kbpd of new production by 2020. Projects now under construction are on average ahead of schedule and 15% below budget
IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): YE16 prelim results | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS): BUY, C$2.80: Operational Update in Kenya | BP (BP LN) (not covered): Acquisitions in Senegal | Tullow Oil (TLW LN); HOLD, £2.40: 1Q16 IMS
Companies: IGAS AOI BP/ TLW
Vermilion Energy (VET CN); BUY, C$64.00 | IGAS (IGAS LN) (not covered): Potential capital restructuring | Northern Petroleum (NOP LN); SPEC BUY, £0.10: Seismic programme update in Italy | BP (BP LN) (not covered): Strategy update | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): 4Q16 results | KMG EP (KMG LI) (not covered): KMG sold 165 mbbl/d of oil in January 2017 | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) (not covered): Operating update | New pre-payments deal for Kurdistan | SDX Energy (SDX LN/SDX CN)1 : BUY, £0.65: South Disouq Drilling Update in Egypt | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): HOLD, £3.10: Division over approval of Tullow farm-out deal in Uganda?
Companies: VET IGAS NOP BP/ ENI JKX SDX TLW
BP released its strategy update: Getting back to growth - Looking to be free cash flow neutral at $40/bbl in 2021. - Production growth at 5% a year until 2021. - $14bn of free cash flow in E&P by 2021 with oil at $55/bbl. - $9-10bn of free cash flow will come from the downstream division. - Capital spending stable at $15-17bn until 2021.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BP. We currently have 38 research reports from 5 professional analysts.
|17Aug17 10:24||RNS||Q2 2017 Scrip Dividend Reference Price|
|16Aug17 15:20||RNS||Holding(s) in Company|
|14Aug17 14:23||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|14Aug17 10:47||RNS||BP p.l.c. publishes provisional dividend dates|
|03Aug17 14:39||RNS||Director/PDMR Shareholding|
|01Aug17 07:00||RNS||2Q17 Part 1 of 1|
|31Jul17 17:17||RNS||Total Voting Rights|
Robinson* (RBN): A year of investment (CORP) | Savannah Resources* (SAV): Mutamba update (CORP) | Anglo Pacific (APF): Interim results (BUY)
Companies: RBN SAV APF
As the nation’s youth await the outcome of their studious efforts, investors also hang on the delivery of results. We are in that quiet spell, ahead of the welter of interim results due in September. So far, the majority have been in line with expectations, though some share prices have given back prior gains. As the table shows, most major markets have slipped back in the last fortnight, largely reflecting macro uncertainties. As the results season gathers pace, this will set near term direction. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent results/news from Clarkson, Hill & Smith, H&T Group and Headlam.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
We update this table which we first published in early January and highlight the continued progress of the biggest AIM companies so far this year and activity in general. The latest AIM Statistics show that there are 963 companies currently, with 28 new issues year to date raising £441m. What’s more, this momentum has been maintained since June. This demonstrates that despite, the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy, generally investors continue to be active in the AIM market. In Share News & Views we comment on Cohort, ECSC*, Porvair, Quarto*, SQS* and Xafinity.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX QRT SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
Avingtrans (AVG.L) Sch1 on its Reverse Takeover of Hayward Tyler (HAYT). Combined market cap of c.£75m. Expected 01 September 2017 OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. Kosmos Energy—. Secondary listing, currently on NYSE. Oil and gas exploration and production company focused on frontier and emerging areas along the Atlantic Margins. During the first half of 2017, gross sales volumes from Ghana averaged approximately 132,000 barrels of oil per day (net: 26,900 bopd). Due 21 August. No offer. NYSE:KOS. Mkt Cap £2.54bn. Myanmar Strategic Holdings—Intention to float from the independent developer and operator of consumer-focused businesses in Myanmar, one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Expected Mkt Cap $22.7m at $10 per share. No details on funds to be raised. Expected late August. Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment Company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Offer raising £200m at 100p. The Company has decided to extend the closing date for the Placing, Offer for Subscription and Intermediaries Offer to 1 August 2017. The Company may bring forward this closing date at any time. Admission 15 September 2017
Companies: VOF SRT MED WLF KMK YOLO OXB CLIN IDOX VOG
In this note we revise our oil price deck, roll forward our NAV discount origins to end 2017, and update models for spot fx rates and operational updates. The net effect is to reduce PTs by 21% on average. However, our revised PTs still show considerable upside relative to the current share prices, and we believe the sector can still create value in a Lower for Longer oil price world. We retain Cairn Energy as our top pick. We also upgrade Faroe Petroleum to BUY, given an attractive valuation and defensive story.
Companies: CNE ENQ FPM TLW
In the middle of the holiday season, when in theory the livin’ is easy, far from taking a breather, markets have continued to rise. All major indices are close to all-time highs. Although the Brexit picture is no clearer, share prices continue to make headway. Both M&A and new issue activity remains to the fore. In contrast, the latest snapshot of the economy shows increasing signs of a slowdown. The reporting season continues apace which will set the near term direction. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent results/news from AdEPT, Clipper Logistics, FDM*, GetBusy*, Quarto* Sprue* and Staffline.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
LoopUp—The provider of conference calls and online meetings is seeking to join AIM. 2015 revs of £9.2m and EBITDA of £1.02m | Bacanora Lithium— To list on AIM around 28 Sep as holding company for TSX listed Bacanora Minerals at £100m market cap | Aura Energy—ASX listed uranium developer (ASX:AEE) expected to join AIM 6 September | Autins Group plc - The acoustic and thermal insulation specialist now looks to join AIM late August
Companies: PEG COG IKA OMI EZH MMH UBI CIRC EPO
Destiny Pharma—A clinical stage biotechnology company - lead asset (XF-73) targets antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections in hospitals. Offer TBA. Due early September.| Avingtrans (AVG.L) Sch1 on its Reverse Takeover of Hayward Tyler (HAYT). Combined market cap of c.£75m. Expected 01 September 2017 | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. | Kosmos Energy— Secondary listing, currently on NYSE. Oil and gas exploration and production company focused on frontier and emerging areas along the Atlantic Margins. During the first half of 2017, gross sales volumes from Ghana averaged approximately 132,000 barrels of oil per day (net: 26,900 bopd). Due 21 August. No offer. NYSE:KOS. Mkt Cap £2.54bn. | Myanmar Strategic Holdings—Intention to float from the independent developer and operator of consumer-focused businesses in Myanmar, one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Expected Mkt Cap $22.7m at $10 per share. $4.2m gross raise. Due 22 August. | Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment Company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Offer raising £200m at 100p. The Company has decided to extend the closing date for the Placing, Offer for Subscription and Intermediaries Offer to 1 August 2017. The Company may bring forward this closing date at any time. Admission 15 September 2017
Companies: MMC RLH MCL ARTL SRT PCA VAST SYS1 BOS
Cairn has upgraded its resource estimates for SNE in its H1 results today, by c19% from 473mmbls to 563mmbls. Our RENAV of 225p currently includes 85p for SNE, based on 2C resources of c470mmbbls (gross) for SNE, risked at 65% CoS, so we would expect to increase our RENAV following today’s announcement. We do not yet include any value either for the >1TCF of potential gas resources associated with Senegal. We continue to believe Cairn looks very undervalued.
Companies: Cairn Energy
Cairn Energy (CNE LN); BUY, £2.30: 1H17 results | EnQuest (ENQ LN); HOLD, £0.35: Disappointing operational update | Premier Oil (PMO LN); Speculative Buy, £0.90: Potential divestment of Wytch Farm at very good price | Kosmos Energy (KOS US/LN) (not covered): Well test results at Tortue
Companies: CNE ENQ PMO KOS
This Morning’s News | Goldplat (GDP LN) | KAZ Minerals (KAZ LN)
Companies: Goldplat Kaz Minerals
We recently hosted our annual Industrial Technology dinner with 14 companies, many of which are active in the materials science arena; having focused previously on composite materials in the aerospace sector, in this edition of Machinations we focus on graphene, with its unique and potentially game-changing qualities and potential applications. Investments in this area remain fairly early stage, but could potentially reap huge rewards. Graphene is well represented in the UK small-cap market by several players.
Companies: SIXH ACL AXS AMPH ALU AEP AVG CAPD CAR FENR FLO RAD GHH HDD HAYT IOF MPE RE/ RED RNO RBN SOM SCE TRT TRI VANL ZAM
Capital Drilling* (CAPD): Good Interims but Tanzania overhangs sentiment (CORP) | Armadale Capital* (ACP): Drilling programme completed (CORP) | Wentworth Resources (WRL): Operational update (BUY) | Gem Diamonds (GEMD): Interim results (BUY)
Companies: CAPD ACP WRL GEMD
Kosmos Energy (KOS.L)—Secondary listing (Standard), currently on NYSE. Oil and gas exploration and production company focused on frontier and emerging areas along the Atlantic Margins. During the first half of 2017, gross sales volumes from Ghana averaged approximately 132,000 barrels of oil per day (net: 26,900 bopd). No offer. NYSE:KOS. Mkt Cap £2.54bn. | Pembridge Resources (PERE.L) - the natural resource exploration and development company has today moved from AIM to the Standard List of the Main Market.
Companies: PHE EAH SPSY FDEV SSY MERC AVN MUBL ITM DCTA
European Metals Holdings is a London AIM and ASX listed minerals development company. The firm is currently progressing the Cinovec Lithium Project in the NorthWest of the Czech Republic (almost on the German border).
Companies: European Metals