FY23 Result and Outlook

We view DORE’s results (3.5% NAV TR) as a solid outcome in a difficult year; power price forecasts declined sharply, and UK solar discount rates ticked out. As part of the results, we have seen a welcome increase in disclosure. The key item in the results, in our opinion, is the fund’s FY24 dividend target of 5.8p (up 7.85%) combined with an increase in expected average dividend cover of >1.35x (1.21x) for the next three years. Discussions with management highlights that growth is being driven b

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Downing Renewables and Infrastructure Trust – Powering ahead

Downing Renewables and Infrastructure (DORE) set out to build an attractive portfolio of renewable energy assets diversified by geography and asset type, and has succeeded in that. In doing so, it alighted upon an opportunity to build a portfolio of hydropower assets in Sweden. As we describe in this note, the management team has identified a number of ways in which it can significantly enhance the returns of these assets. These initiatives have the potential to add meaningfully to both DORE’s N

Downing Renewables and Infrastructure Trust – Powering ahead

Downing Renewables and Infrastructure (DORE) set out to build a portfolio of renewable energy assets diversified by geography and asset type, and has succeeded in that. In doing so, it alighted upon an opportunity to build a portfolio of hydropower assets in Sweden. As is described in this note, the management team has identified a number of ways in which it believes that it can significantly enhance the returns of these assets. These initiatives may have the potential to add meaningfully to bot

Interim Results – Continuing to add diversity

DORE delivered a positive H1’23 (NAV TR +1.6%, 6 months 30 June) return driven by limited asset repricing (the fund’s discount rates were already fairly conservative) and attractively priced incremental acquisitions in Sweden (Hydro plants) and in the UK. During the half, the fund progressed plans to exploit the optionality in its Hydro portfolio and has highlighted the potential to add an estimated 290bps (range 135-445bps) onto the core 8% Hydro return. In addition, the fund agreed two Grid Se

Hardman & Co Insight: UK interest rates and “risk-free” gilts at their peak? Infrastructure stocks struggle

The share price performances of the nine Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and of the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have been dire over the past year. Undoubtedly, the sharp rise in interest rates has presented the sector with serious challenges, especially since the yield on “risk-free” 10-year gilts has risen appreciably. Furthermore, the ongoing war in Ukraine and high inflation rates, from which many IICs and REIFs are partially ‒ if not wholly ‒ protected, contin

The Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2023

Feature article: UK interest rates and “risk-free” gilts at their peak? Infrastructure stocks struggle Executive summary Infrastructure/Renewable Energy Funds ► The share price performances of the nine Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and of the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have been dire over the past year. Undoubtedly, the sharp rise in interest rates has presented the sector with serious challenges, especially since the yield on “risk-free” 10-year gilts has r

Acquisition of a Shunt Reactor

DORE’s £11m acquisition of Mersey Reactive Power (Mersey RP, a UK based 200MVAr shunt reactor) further diversifies the fund’s revenue base whilst supporting the energy transition. The asset has an initial fixed life, index-linked, availability-based contract with National Grid ESO until March 2031 (c8 years remaining) and an expected asset life of 40 years. The ESO’s demand for this service is highly location specific and lasts well beyond the life of the initial contract. The investment will be

Solid Q4 NAV, Hydro demonstrates its power

The Q4 NAV rose 1p (net of a 1.25p dividend) to 118.7p, taking the NAV TR for the year to 19.6%. DORE’s solid Q4 performance was the product of multiple countervailing forces (detailed below). DORE’s decision to store (in early Q4) hydro-generation capacity (water) in its dams facilitated higher value generation later in the period and above expected hydropower revenues. In light of recently published discount rates for UK Solar (7.0%-7.5%), DORE’s valuation of its UK Solar assets at 8% feels co

Hardman & Co Insight: Higher interest rates overshadow IIC/REIF prospects

Hardman & Co Research’s focus is on the nine quoted infrastructure investment companies (IICs) and on the 22 renewable energy infrastructure funds (REIFs), most of which saw their share prices fall during 2022, while the FTSE 100 rose by just 0.9%. In our Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy – Prospects for 2023 publication, we have addressed the three key issues of recent months: higher inflation, extremely volatile power prices and rising interest rates.

Structurally positive

The detail in the recently published Q3 NAV statement (+2.6% TR) bodes well for future returns. Specific items include a conservative assumption for UK inflation in 2023 (2.75%), the avoidance of UK Windfall taxation (due to scale), higher discount rates (wgt. av. 7.7%, +0.5%) and the disclosure that the post period investments in UK solar and Swedish Hydro power have base case returns in excess of the revised portfolio discount rate. In our opinion, DORE is well placed to act as a diversifying

Timely disclosure sets a positive tone

Trading at a 13% discount to NAV (versus a 1.1% 12m average discount) and yielding 5%, DORE has de-rated with the wider sector. We attribute the generalised de-rating to a combination of higher risk free rates combined with specific concerns regarding the UK Government’s windfall revenue proposals. DORE’s timely disclosure regarding its revenue profile highlights a minimal impact from the windfall revenue proposal & the potential for upside from the CFD. In the light of this new information, we

Strong interim result, NAV TR +14.1%

Following a strong H1 results, the fund is well positioned to continue performing strongly and deploy further capital. The fund’s UK inflation assumptions 7.8% for 2022 declining to 2.75% in 2023 (versus 12.3% currently) feels conservative as do the most recently published power price assumptions. Trading on a 1.3% premium to NAV (June 22), yielding 4.2%, with a progressive dividend policy, cash to deploy, we view DORE as an attractive, diversifying, renewable exposure

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 23/06/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No Joiners Today. Leavers: No Leavers Today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen? Immediate acquisitions (IME.L) is to re-join AIM via a Reverse Takeover of Fiinu Holdings Limited. Once complete the Company is proposing to change its name to Fiinu Group plc. Fiinu intends to be a provider of a consumer banking product, the Plugin Overdraft ®, which is designed to provide customers with an overdraft facility without having to change their current account or request an overd

Downing Renewables and Infrastructure Trust - Proving its mettle

With a solid first set of results published, revenue and dividends running ahead of IPO forecasts, a diverse and differentiated portfolio of attractive renewable energy assets, and a growing NAV supported by investments that are helping to build NAV and profits, Downing Renewables and Infrastructure (DORE) is attracting the support of new investors. On 11 May 2022, the trust announced an NAV as at end March 2022 of 110.1p – up from 103.5p per share as at 31 December 2021; we discuss what drove

IP Group - Several potential portfolio catalysts on the horizon

IP Group’s NAV declined by 13% in total return (TR) terms in FY23, affected by continued soft valuations across venture capital (VC) markets, as well as funding delays at some of its holdings. That said, management indicated that many of IP Group’s portfolio companies continued to make strong progress. Its maturing portfolio offers a number of potential NAV triggers and is now available at a wide 59% discount to NAV. We note that, as at end-2023, only 14% of IP Group’s portfolio was valued based

Meet, beat, repeat

FY23 - preparing for two high impact wells this year

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

Braemar - Diversification paying dividends

Braemar’s FY24 trading update was in line with expectations, with revenues of c £150m and underlying operating profit of c £18m. Underlying operations continue to expand and diversify and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying estimates for FY24 and FY25, but edge down the valuation based on the lower

Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Avacta

Trinity Delta view: The proprietary pre|CISION platform is key to Avacta’s investment case, hence updated data that continue to support key hypotheses for AVA6000 are reassuring. Future efficacy data from studies planned to start in H224 will be key, and could also help to more broadly validate pre|CISION. The recent £31.1m fundraise (March 2024 Lighthouse), which provides a cash runway of c 24 months ie into early 2026, will be used to advance the therapeutics pipeline, in particular AVA6000, a

hVIVO - FY 2023 results, revenue in-line, margin better, future is bright

hVIVO has delivered FY 2023A results in-line with the 30 January 2024 TU, with total customer revenues of £56m, growth of 16% versus 2022A. Other income related to tax credits added another £2.6m. 2024 revenue guidance of £62m has been reiterated, representing 11% growth over 2023A, and ahead of the £60m that we had previously forecast. The company has good visibility with the 2024 figure, with 90% already being covered by the existing orderbook (stands at £80m at the end of 2023), as well as in

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Allenby Capital: Deltic Energy - Update

Deltic Energy plc (DELT.L) has announced some positive news concerning its 50% interest in the Selene joint-venture with Shell UK Ltd. The announcement concerns a farm-out to Dana Petroleum Ltd of a 25% interest in Licence P2437 which contains the Selene prospect. The farm-out calls for Deltic retaining a highly meaningful 25% interest in one of the most interesting prospects in terms of risk profile and scale in the Southern North Sea (SNS) Basin while largely eliminating exposure to the cost o

LIBERUM: Agents of change: Evolving for modern demands

Avacta Group - AACR update

As pre-announced, Avacta has presented the results of the 3-weekly P1 Arm 1 study of its AVA6000 lead clinical asset, based on the pre|CISION™ drug development platform at the American Association for Cancer Research's annual general meeting. The update does not cover progress on the ongoing 2-weekly dosing study which is underway, and Avacta confirmed current guidance on timing including being on track to begin the dose expansion study in 2H24. There are compelling updates on the progress repor

UK Equities: Overlooked, oversold, and over here

In this note we look at the gap between perception and reality in the UK equity market, the opportunities and threats in the economic and market outlook, and the emerging consensus that the valuation discount versus other major markets is at or close to an inflection point. We consider the benefits of UK equity strategies both for income investors and for those seeking exposure to the higher growth potential of smaller and mid-cap companies.

Significant hidden value in core RM division