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05 Jul 2024
Gym Group : Expect pipeline and yield progress to continue - Buy

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Gym Group : Expect pipeline and yield progress to continue - Buy
Gym Group Plc (GYM:LON) | 142 -4.8 (-2.3%) | Mkt Cap: 254.7m
- Published:
05 Jul 2024 -
Author:
Roberta Ciaccia -
Pages:
6 -
What to expect in H1 2024: The H1 trading update is due on July 10th, with full numbers on September 11th. At the FY23 results in March, GYM said that “revenue after two months has grown by 16% year on year, reflecting a 3% increase in average members and 13% growth in yield, benefitting from price taken earlier in the year. Like-for-like revenue up 12%”. We expect over 900k memberships at the end of June, yields to be up by a high single-digit percent, and 237 total sites at the end of the period or 4 added since December 2023. We forecast total revenue in the area of £109m (+9% yoy), still strong growth but lower than in the first 2 months, as this is the highest period of recruitment. As at least another 6 gyms will be opened by the end of the year, we expect Non-property Net Debt to be lower in June than at the end of the year (FY24E: £66.3m, or 1.6x ND/EBITDA LNR).
We are confident in delivery of FY forecasts and Next Chapter strategy in the medium term: For FY24E, we expect revenue to be up 8% yoy, meaning a slowdown in H2 vs H1. The timing of opening additional sites can impact growth, and the annualization of new pricing strategy implemented in H2 2023 should result in lower yield growth compared to H1 (c5% yoy LFL growth in FY24E in our forecasts, in line with company guidance of +4-5%). We expect EBITDA LNR (Less Normalised Rent) to be up 8% yoy with an increase in site and central costs likely to be at least partially offset by energy tailwinds. In the medium term, low-cost gym market dynamics provide a positive backdrop for GYM’s growth plans (see our initiation Muscling in on the market, Oct 2023), and we expect the ROCE/deleveraging targets to be met. The share price has not really moved since the new plan was unveiled, but delivering on targets should provide good upside.