RBG’s update confirms H1 revenue of £18.4m (H1’23 £19.8m), reflecting an in line performance in the first four months of the year, followed by a quieter May and June. Against this, we would anticipate a broadly break even H1 EBITDA outturn. Net debt was £24.4m at Jun. ’24 (Dec. ’23: £23.0m), with the debt facility fully utilised. Encouragingly, activity levels have recovered in July. A number of significant pipeline opportunities give management confidence in achieving a broadly in line FY24 outturn. Applying a probability weighting to these, we now forecast an adj. EBITDA outturn of £5.6m in FY24, nudged down from £6.0m previously. This assumes the conversion of some of the larger pipeline projects but there are also opportunities for the outturn to be enhanced if all of the projects progress. A focused revenue growth and margin recovery strategy in Legal Services is key to getting leverage down - management has made good progress on reducing costs in the period. We maintain a Hold recommendation for now, awaiting further progress on deleveraging.
