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19 Jan 2021
Good science always prevails

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Good science always prevails
RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 4,026 281.8 0.2% | Mkt Cap: 74,260m
- Published:
19 Jan 2021 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
29 -
We turn positive on Science, Technical and Medical (STM), which represents c40% of group adj. operating profit, and upgrade the stock from (-) to (=) with a revised TP of 1850p.
Turning positive on STM
Our industry contacts lead us to believe that the 2021 journal subscription renewal campaign is going well, with no signs of significant unbundling happening. Our tracking points to a pick-up in Gold Open Access (OA) volume growth at time when Elsevier price inflation is accelerating. Relx''s OA migration is proceeding well and we expect significant new contracts to be announced in 2021. We now expect STM to maintain positive orgrev growth in 2021 and to accelerate to 3% next year, above consensus.
Exhibitions not out of the woods yet
We remain cautious relative to consensus expectations on Legal and Exhibitions for 2021. A 50% decline in the number of exhibitors attending shows currently taking place in Japan suggests demand is limited and could surprise consensus on the downside. But Exhibitions now only account for 6% of Relx EV and are likely to be less of a share price headwind in 2021.
Top-line growth likely to accelerate
We expect a consensual recovery in Risk and solid trends in STM to help group orgrev growth accelerate to 3% and 4% in 2021 and 2022 (excluding Exhibitions). The commercial success of the newly launched Lexis+ could push this higher.
Valuation more attractive
Relx shares have underperformed Media (-15%) and the Market (-9%) over the last 6 months. Normalising for Exhibitions, the stock trades on 18x fwd PE. Its valuation is more attractive. We upgrade to Neutral, with the 2021 top-line outlook for Risk and STM at FY20 results on 11 February as the main potential catalyst.