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11 Feb 2021
Proof of resilience

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Proof of resilience
RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 3,994 159.8 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 73,563m
- Published:
11 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
10 -
Relx delivered FY20 numbers broadly in line
Relx FY20 revenues came 1% below while operating margins came 30bps ahead, bringing adj. operating profit in line with expectations. Lower financial and tax charges helped beat consensus by 4% at the EPS level. In H2, orgrev growth at STM and Legal came in line with consensus. Risk and BA was slightly below, probably held back by deteriorating subscription revenue trends (40% of divisional revenues). H2 Exhibitions was 12% below consensus but this division is now too small to have a meaningful share price impact.
Relx reassures on STM, Risk and Legal
Management guided to modest positive orgrev growth in 2021 in STM and Legal and to strong growth (in line with pre-Covid years) in Risk. As discussed in RELX PLC: Good science always prevails, STM journal subscription renewal rates are in line with recent years. Open Access growth is accelerating and databases and tools are seeing good momentum. The commercial roll-out of Lexis+ in the US is progressing well. Most KPIs in Risk are back to pre-Covid levels.
Exhibitions remain uncertain but valuation now fully captures the risk
The outlook for Exhibitions remains uncertain and a short-term risk to consensus 2021 forecasts in our view. Shows currently held in Japan and Moscow are seeing a 50% revenue decline. On the other hand, one could argue that the current share price captures hardly any value for Reed Exhibitions and consequently there may be room for upside.
TP raised to 1900p
We have raised our orgrev growth forecasts for LandP and STM margins and made other minor underlying changes to our forecasts but they are largely offset by forex in FY21. We raise our TP to 1900p, implying a 19x forward PE at target. We remain Neutral as we see limited upside left bar an acceleration in STM or Legal. The announcement of a deal in STM with the University of California or Germany could be the next positive catalyst.