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Untold opportunities
RELX PLC (REL:LON) | 3,994 159.8 0.1% | Mkt Cap: 73,563m
- Published:
11 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Packer William WP | Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
30 -
A stock well-suited to the current market context
Relx has a defensive, structurally improving growth profile. STM has not seen a year of revenue decline in over 30 years. Legal could benefit from a mild recession forcing law firms to embrace productivity tools more rapidly. Risk has proven resilient in the GFC. Covid normalisation is likely to more than offset macro pressure in Exhibitions. Relx is a blue-chip stock well suited to the current macro environment. We reaffirm our Outperform rating ahead of the 9M update on 20 October.
White House Open Access policy: more of an opportunity than a risk
Our proprietary analysis of nearly all of Elsevier''s 2,700 academic journals suggests the share of federally funded US articles beyond paywall is rapidly declining and is likely to be less than 5% in 2027. This leads us to argue the new White House policy is unlikely to have a significant financial impact on journal subscription revenues but is likely to boost open access revenue growth.
New US mandate to publish researchers'' datasets presents a major opportunity
Historically, scientists were asked to publish research articles only. From 2027 onwards, US researchers will also have to publish their underlying datasets. We believe this will expand the demand for data analytics and could drive a USD1bn market opportunity. Relx is the only vendor offering researchers both article and data publication services. It has a strong competitive advantage in relation to this growing opportunity. The increase in data analytics, coupled with our expectations of new contract gains, leads us to raise our organic revenue growth forecast for STM to a consensus-topping 5% in 2023 (vs. 4%).
9M trading update on October 20th and positive newsflow in STM as key catalysts
We raise EPS by 2% and 3% and stand 7% and 8% ahead of consensus for FY23 and FY24. Relx trades on 18x PE23 and offers a 5.4% FCF yield. While at market-relative highs, the stock continues to trade at a...