Numerous historical growth drivers: Auto insurance (focused on the US) makes up roughly half the Risk division and its revenue growth links to quote volumes. This has benefited from structural drivers since it was acquired, such as the shift to online, and increasing insurance penetration (Berkshire Hathaway noted at the weekend that total US policy numbers have increased by 35% over 5 years). It has also benefited from significant premium inflation however. Echoing UK trends, the 2019 JD Power auto insurance survey demonstrated that the propensity to switch policy accelerates with premium growth of $50 (c.3%) – and the market moved below this level for the first time since RELX has owned the business during 2019, and inflation remains flat. But signs of slowing already: The Risk division missed its 8% growth target last year – the 7% reflected ‘market’ growth of 2% (down from 3%), 4% contribution from ‘new’ products (down from 5%) and the inclusion of Threatmetrix into organic growth (c.1%). Recent acquisitions will not benefit organic growth in 2020, and so an acceleration in growth from the ‘market’ or ‘new products’ is needed just to sustain the current rate. And scope for further weakness: Management suggests growth has been better in the early part of 2020, reflecting major insurers trying to gain share. At the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway demonstrated this dynamic – reporting 5-6% premium growth at Geico in 2019, driven by higher growth in policy volumes. This however led to a 3pp margin fall, driven by 11% expense growth (from ad spend), which may not be sustainable. On the flipside, AllState noted the ‘massive’ ad spending by their competitors recently, but that it sees signs of competitive dynamics easing (with pricing differentials closing). If true, we could for the first time see low inflation lead to falling switching volumes – signs of cyclicality and maturity appearing could lead to de-rating.