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13 May 2021
Moving in the right direction
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Moving in the right direction
Vesuvius Plc (VSVS:LON) | 395 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 979.3m
- Published:
13 May 2021 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ | Gjani Bruno BG -
Pages:
8 -
Organic sales growth improved in Q1 21
Aided by improving steel production trends and an easy comp (-12% in Q1 20) Vesuvius delivered organic sales growth of 7% in Q1 21. Growth in Steel and Foundry was noted to have been broadly similar and within the Steel division, growth in Flow Control was said to have been stronger than in Advanced Refractories, aided by market share gains in the former.
Management still retained an element of caution in their messaging
Vesuvius also refreshed its outlook and now expects to deliver headline profit that is ''moderately ahead'' of Consensus expectations (Company compiled at GBP138mn). In terms of the various headline profit bridging items, raw material inflation is expected to be fully offset by positive pricing, whilst increased freight costs are expected to represent an incremental low single digit million headwind. Encouragingly, the CFO noted that a c.40% drop through in FY''21 still appears reasonable. At the same time, however, Management were keen to keep a lid on expectations, noting that whilst there had been an improvement in its markets, demand still remained below 2018 and 2019 levels in many markets and highlighted that a degree of uncertainty still persists.
We find reasons to remain constructive
Things are now moving in the right direction for Vesuvius. Consensus only models 10% organic sales growth in H1 (Vis. Alpha) and after 7% in Q1 and an easy Q2 comp to come, we would expect Vesuvius to deliver substantially more growth than this. Further, with run-rate Steel production trends appearing encouraging (March run-rate production rates imply c.14% volume growth in ''21) and a restocking cycle yet to play out, we find reasons to remain constructive.
We update our estimates for latest trading; our TP moves to 640p (from 610p)
We update our estimates for latest trading and FX leading to c.2% upgrades to our FY21/FY''22 EPS estimates. Our SOTP22e derived target price moves to 640p (from...