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31 Jul 2020
Signs of a sequential recovery emerging
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Signs of a sequential recovery emerging
Vesuvius Plc (VSVS:LON) | 390 7.8 0.5% | Mkt Cap: 968.6m
- Published:
31 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Jonathan Mounsey -
Pages:
8 -
A crisis will often reveal the extent to which a business has transformed itself. In Vesuvius'' case, the transformation is marked. At the height of the GFC Vesuvius (then Cookson) had to issue equity; in what is likely to be the trough of this Crisis, Vesuvius delivered a strong beat and a good cash performance. With momentum likely to improve from here, the historically wide discount at which the shares trade at should narrow in the months to come. We reiterate our O/P rating.
Considerable cost actions resulted in a commendable margin beat
Vesuvius'' H1 surprised on all fronts; topline came in 2% ahead, whilst headline EBIT came in 16% ahead, aided by the strong cost action that was taken in the first half - GBP30.9mn of cost savings were delivered in all, of which GBP18.6mn were noted to have been more temporary in nature. Cash was also good, with cash conversion at 140% and net debt edging down. Moving forward, we expect cost actions to continue to support margins and are confident that Vesuvius can deliver on its targeted GBP10mn of temporary costs savings per quarter. We note that government backed, ''furlough-like'' schemes only contributed c.GBP7.8mn of temporary cost savings in Q2, which to us signals a low risk of an H2 cost savings disappointment.
Excess steel inventory clearing the market; signs of a recovery emerging
Encouragingly, Vesuvius management noted that the recovery in Steel markets has been quicker than it had anticipated - excess Steel inventories across the market could, in all likelihood, get absorbed by during Q3. In addition, key Steel producers, such as ArcelorMittal, also seem to convey a more upbeat message in regards to underlying Steel demand; supportive a scenario where a recovery across the second half of the year is more meaningful than Consensus had previously anticipated.
Considerable cost actions resulted in a commendable margin beat
We update our estimates for recent trading and FX. Our FY''20/FY21...