LIBERUM: Support Services & Special Situations - The Outliers – Charts that speak a 1,000 words
For our coverage we have compiled a chart book to help investors identify companies for which the share price performance diverges from the main factors that influence the stock. To help us identify these opportunities, we have created a composite index, or basket, for each company.
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04 Feb 20
LIBERUM: PayPoint* - Q3 guides to PBT progress but our low EPS reduced by 0.9%
Q3 statement guides to PBT progress but slight weakness in Bill Payments due to weather and Parcels due to volumes. We nudge down our low FY 2020 FD EPS by 0.9% from 64.6p to 64.1p but maintain our net debt estimate of £15.4m.
23 Jan 20
LIBERUM: The 4S’s: Support Services & Special Situations - Loosening the purse strings
The UK election on 12th December could result in a Conservative majority, a Corbyn government or something in between. Voters cannot claim a lack of choice, with the Conservative manifesto offering One Nation Conservatism and Labour offering to ‘rewrite the rules of the economy’.
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29 Nov 19
LIBERUM: PayPoint - Reassuring Q1 statement with Parcels returning to growth
Trading statement guides to in line with strength at Bill Payments and Parcels. We continue to expect FD EPS of 64.6p and net debt of £15.4m for FY20. At UK Bill & General, the legacy businesses are proving robust with Bill Payment net revenues increasing by 7.5%.
24 Jul 19
LIBERUM: Morning Comment
Support Services - The 4 S's Video, Origin Enterprises, Asiamet Resources, Futura Medical, Nokia, Whitbread, Berkeley, CapCo, Market Highlights
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19 Jun 19
LIBERUM: UK Small & Mid Cap Dispatches
Support Services - The 4 S's Video, Asiamet Resources, Futura Medical, Berkeley, CapCo, SMID Market Highlights
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19 Jun 19
LIBERUM: VIDEO: The 4 S’s: Support Services & Special Situations - Diamonds in the rough
In these three short videos, Support Services & Special Situations Analyst, Joe Brent, discusses the in depth research piece - The 4 S’s: Support Services & Special Situations Diamonds in the rough. With a particular focus on the big themes, which stocks have been performing and stock recommendations.
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18 Jun 19
LIBERUM: UK Small & Mid Cap Dispatches
Support Services - The 4 S's, DMGT, Galliford Try, CapCo, Spirent, Lookers, Equiniti, SMID Market Highlights
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31 May 19
LIBERUM: Morning Comment
Support Services - The 4 S's, Outdoor Agencies Video, DMGT, Galliford Try, Mining Update, CapCo, Spirent, Lookers, Equiniti, Market Highlights
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31 May 19
LIBERUM: The 4 S’s: Support Services & Special Situations - Diamonds in the rough
These have been challenging times for many companies in Support Services & Special Situations (The 4Ss), with Contractors, Financial Services and Constructors down 17%, 20% and 35% over the last twelve months. Ongoing Brexit uncertainty is making for a difficult environment where the private sector is not making investments and the public sector is not making decisions.
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31 May 19
LIBERUM: PayPoint - PayPoint One rollout gathering pace
At the FY19 results PBT grew 2% yoy, to £54m, and FD EPS grew 1%, to 63.4p. We reduce FY20 FD EPS due to a higher interest charge, despite expectations of continued growth in PayPoint One, which now has an increased target of 15,800 sites by FY20.
29 May 19
LIBERUM: PayPoint - Trading in line with a new parcels partner signed
Q3 statement only 7 week after H1 guides to in line, with strong terminal growth in PayPoint One but weak top-up sales in Romania. Solid trading at Retail Services continues to offset weakness at Bill & General and Top-ups.
24 Jan 19
LIBERUM: The 4S’s - The negative working capital model in Construction is changing
Four measures are being considered to protect the supply chains in the wake of the Carillion collapse, a year or so ago; 1) Project Bank Accounts, 2) The Prompt Payment Code; 3) Retentions Reform; and 4) Assigning non-executives for the supply chain. (Read here). This means that in most cases, Costain is an exception, working capital will become less negative, which has a negative impact on cash flows, while Construction companies grow.
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21 Jan 19
LIBERUM: PayPoint - Legacy businesses proving resilient
H1 19 results were slightly ahead, and we have increased our FY19 FD EPS by 1% to 64.1p. There are lots of moving parts. The declines in B&G and mobile top-ups are being partially offset by growth at MultiPay and e-money. We are excited by the prospects of the PP1 terminal, which could potentially generate c.£25m of sales. Collect+ can grow strongly and the eBay deal is strategically important and is ready for Christmas. Romania is growing strongly, helped by Payzone. Div yield of 5.4%, pre specials. Reiterate BUY.
05 Dec 18
LIBERUM: PayPoint - H1 results ahead and FY increased 1%
The business is transitioning well and 4% profit growth is impressive given the head-winds. H1 19 results slightly ahead of expectations. FY FD EPS increased 1% from 63.5p to 64.1p due to resilience of the legacy businesses. UK Bill & General net revenue fell 9% due to structural challenges but more resilient than expected. Continuing decline of transactions at Top-ups, but strength in e-money. UK Retail Services is flat with 40% growth in Service fees and expected weakness in Parcels as the business transitions. The roll-out of PayPoint One is ahead of expectations but the roll-out of Pro is a little slower than expected. At Collect+ volumes down 15.9% as only Yodel is included in these results, but exciting strategic partnership with e-bay is up and running. Strong growth in Romania helped by PayZone. TP of 1100p based on a DCF, with an optimistic view of PayPoint One.
29 Nov 18
LIBERUM: PayPoint - In line statement with exciting e-bay partnership
Trading statement guides to in line and we assume 43% H1 EPS weighting. We continue to expect FD EPS of 63.5p and net cash of £1.9m for the full year. UK Bill & General net revenue expected to be lower due to structural challenges. Continuing decline of transactions at Top-ups, but net revenues holding up well. UK Retail Services is growing, helped by service fees. At Collect+ volumes down 17% but exciting press release today on strategic partnership with e-bay. The roll-out of PayPoint One is going well and might be helped by digital VAT returns. Strong growth in Romania helped by PayZone. PayPoint national outage caused significant disruption, but will not be an issue if it does not repeat. TP of 1200p based on a DCF, with an optimistic view of PayPoint One.
26 Jul 18
LIBERUM: PayPoint - FY results: Slow but gentle progress
FY FD EPS and net cash a little ahead of expectations. We increase FD EPS by 2% for 2019 and 2020 and expect PBT growth, in line with guidance. UK Bill & General steady, which is a good result, helped by growth at Multipay. Continuing decline of transactions at Top-ups, but UK net revenue grows. Expect stable net revenues at UK Retail Services, with good momentum in PayPoint One volumes and price. Strong growth in Romania, helped by Payzone, and scope to grow Retail Services. TP from 980p to 1000p based on a DCF, with an optimistic view of PayPoint One. BUY
24 May 18
LIBERUM: PayPoint - Concealed growth
For the first time in a long time we can model PayPoint in a granular way, which helps us understand the drivers. We increase FD EPS by 1% for FY 2018 due to cold weather and the PP1 roll-out. PayPoint appears not to be growing, but when the revenue drags in FY 2018 and 2019 fade, the underlying growth will become apparent. The retail seminar last week highlighted the opportunity from PP1. We believe that the Parcels business will resume growth, and new partners are a key catalyst. Our 980p TP is based on a DCF.
13 Mar 18
LIBERUM: PayPoint - In line statement with target raised for PayPoint One
Q3 IMS guides to in-line trading and we retain our estimates. Sound underlying trading at Retail Services, despite weaker growth in ATMs and Cards. That continues to offset weakness at Bill & General and Top-ups. The legacy terminal charge is in effect, and has not had a material impact on customers and PayPointOne roll-out continues to have good velocity. Weaker volumes at Collect + as Yodel loses customers but the click and collect market still looks attractive. There is an opportunity to grow Retail Services in Romania, like the UK. There are a number of conflicting energy drivers. There are a number of exciting revenue streams. TP 980p based on a DCF, with an optimistic view of PayPoint One.
25 Jan 18