Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

SP Angel Morning View:Steel prices in Europe rise as iron ore holds $135/t on strong Chinese exports

Artificial intelligence in UK biopharma and healthcare 11/09/2023

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to accelerate at full speed, first by imitating the workings of a human brain and now it is drawing concepts of evolution, sometimes with synthetic data, artificially manufactured for training purposes or for privacy protection, and sometimes not even with human intervention. In this note, we examine how AI is being developed and applied by the NHS and UK mid/small cap companies for the benefit of human health and wellbeing. AI in drug discovery and devel

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Apr 23

19 April 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27 Mar 23

27 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Jan 23

20 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Allergy Therapeutics

Trinity Delta view: The pivotal G306 Grass MATA MPL Phase III trial is one of two important clinical studies planned, with the other the Phase I PROTECT VLP Peanut trial. Data for both of these key pipeline assets are expected next year, with results from G306 during Q423. The G306 study is fully funded, and should generate reliable and robust results given the size and scope. Management sees $300-400m peak sales for Grass MATA MPL in the US, which could be transformational for Allergy Therapeut

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 28/10/22

Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by production. The offer will initially comprise new ordinary shares and the proceeds will be used to repay existing shareholder debt, includ

Allergy Therapeutics: Manufacturing pause takes it toll on revenues

Allergy Therapeutics has quantified the potential near-term revenue impact from the voluntary UK manufacturing pause. Whilst this is only expected to last around six weeks, FY23 revenues are expected to be 13-18% below current consensus expectations. This is unfortunately due to the interruption occurring during the peak production period, which is undoubtedly disappointing given management guidance of a return to near double-digit growth in FY23. This setback puts increasing pressure on the pip

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 04/10/22

Dish of the day Joiners: Milton Capital plc (MII.L) has joined the Main Market. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** TECC Capital plc, to be renamed EDX Medical Group, intends to join the AQSE Growth Market. EDX operates a molecular biology and diagnostics laboratory in Cambridge, UK, from which it performs research & development, provides Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing and genomic sequencing services, undertakes quality assurance and has established expertise

Allergy Therapeutics: On the starting blocks towards key data expected in 2023

The next 12-18 months will be key for Allergy Therapeutics, with the base European commercial business set to return to growth, whilst important pipeline readouts could propel the company closer to US market entry. In Europe, temporary headwinds impacted growth in Germany, Allergy Therapeutics’ largest market; these should abate, enabling a return to near double-digit revenue growth. Meanwhile, clinical trials for both VLP Peanut and Grass MATA MPL are set to initiate this year for data in summe

Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Allergy Therapeutics

Trinity Delta view: Revenues continue to be impacted by the planned portfolio streamlining, masking underlying performance, albeit these effects should wash out in FY23 with a return to near double-digit growth anticipated. Tight cost control continues, with phasing affecting various line items, for Net Income to be in-line with consensus. Importantly, the two key pipeline programmes, VLP Peanut and Grass MATA MPL, remain on-track to initiate trials this year. Cash together with some debt should

Allergy Therapeutics: Solid commercial performance with major R&D upside

Allergy Therapeutics continues to execute on its clearly defined three pillar strategy for growth in both the near- and mid-to-longer term. In Europe, interim results demonstrate continued robust performance. Key pipeline programmes Grass MATA MPL and VLP Peanut have also made significant progress, with both set to start major clinical trials this year. These high value and well differentiated assets underpin future entry into the commercially important US market. Cash of £41m, plus the £10m cre

Commercialising and developing a differentiated portfolio

Allergy Therapeutics continues to trade solidly in a challenging environment. Its H122 trading statement confirmed six-month revenues to end-December 2021 of £48.7m (H121: £54.0m, down 5% on CER) reflecting commercial portfolio streamlining, phasing, and German headwinds. FY22 revenue guidance is for an upper single digit percentage decline on FY21, with pre-R&D operating profit in line with current consensus. A strong cash balance of £41.4m, when coupled with modest additional debt, will fund t

Shield Therapeutics - FY 2023A results, we introduce FY2024 forecasts

STX has released FY2023A results, with no surprises versus the Q1 2024 update on 30 April 2024. Total product revenues were $13.1m, (US Accrufer sales $11.6m, ex-US revenues $1.5m (mainly Germany and the US) and other income $4.4m (largely Viatris-related milestones). Total 2023A US Accrufer scrips were 77k, more than tripling versus 2022A, and evidence that having the Viatris deal and extra sales reps fully deployed from May 2023 is having a positive impact. The 2023 operating loss was $31.1m,

Morning Note – 13 May 2024

Zeus Industrials Round-Up - 9 May 2024

Economic and industrial data has started the second quarter on slightly weaker grounds than Q1 as Manufacturing PMI in the UK, Eurozone and US all reported April indexes below March levels. Cracks seem to be appearing as recent drops in new orders and rising input costs are quickly dampening confidence. Inflation did, however, fall MoM across the board with the exception of the US, where volatile energy prices caused a modest MoM increase in the inflation rate.

Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED

Trinity Delta view: Partner Takeda has executed an impressive initial launch of Fruzaqla in the US, which provides confidence in future successful launches in Europe and Japan (once regulatory approvals are secured), and for Fruzaqla’s longer-term growth prospects with expansion to additional indications. Fruzaqla’s commercial prospects are a key contributor to HUTCHMED’s path to profitability, which is supported by the growing traction and market share capture of its China oncology products, pl

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 470p) - Outstanding FY23A - Upgrades!

Avon Protection - Unmasking its growth potential

Avon Protection’s capital markets day highlighted its continued focus on medium-term margin expansion (targeting operating margin of 14–16%), concentrating on its core business of respirators and head protection. The unwinding of the armour business, alongside the consolidation of Team Wendy (acquired in H220) should enable Avon to benefit from rising global defence spending. Its strong relationship with the US DoD, and organic growth opportunities with recurring revenue from necessary product r

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 09 May 2024

9th May 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: E-Therapeutics (ETX.L) has left AIM. Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO.L) has left AIM. What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: 7th May: Time To ACT plc, an engineering business focused on technology for the energy transition sector, has a

Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies - Early signs of revival in clinical activity

Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCT) has announced its H124 results (to end-October 2023), an eventful period for the company, marked by successful clinical progression of lead asset OCT461201, albeit with some funding challenges. Key highlights included the initiation and subsequent positive safety data from OCT’s first Phase I clinical trial (Programme 1) and a foray into oncology (Programme 4). Tight funding conditions halted subsequent clinical progress, although the recently announced £1.3

Creo Medical - NHS data validates Speedboat’s economic merit

Creo Medical has presented real-world evidence of the economic utility of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices, based on NHS data from 130 submucosal dissection procedures using Creo’s flagship Speedboat Inject device. The data demonstrated net cash savings of £687k for the NHS trust, driven by a significant reduction in both hospitalisation and critical care costs. We believe this provides external validation to Creo’s pursuit of improving patients’ outcomes through its novel suite of

IRLAB Therapeutics - External validation boosts quarterly recap

In its Q124 report, IRLAB recapped its efforts in targeting major aspects of Parkinson’s disease (PD). The update was enhanced by the recently announced R&D collaboration for IRL757, which is anticipated to fully fund all development activities through clinical proof-of-concept and support the advancement of the development programme through efficacy signal readouts in both PD and Alzheimer’s patient populations. IRLAB will take the compound into a Phase I study, funded by the MJFF, later this m

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 May 2024

13th May 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: Shanta Gold (SHG.L) has left AIM. What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: 7th May: Time To ACT plc, an engineering business focused on technology for the energy transition sector, has announced its intention to seek Admission to t

Futura Medical: Eroxon poised for launch in key US market

Futura Medical’s investment case has shifted firmly onto commercial execution. The highly successful initial launches of Eroxon, its novel topical gel for ED (erectile dysfunction), by partner Cooper Consumer Health in the UK and Belgium are now being followed by roll-outs across the major European markets. The much-anticipated launch in the commercially important US market by consumer healthcare giant Haleon is expected before February 2025. Launches in Other Regions are anticipated throughout

Cost actions support FY24 outcome

Avon Protection (AVON LN) - Initiation: plenty of potential

Avon Protection is now on the right path strategically, focused on core body protection systems. We initiate coverage with a valuation of 1,100p against a current share price of 916p (+20%). The investment case is finely balanced. Global defence stocks have outperformed with rising conflict and bigger government budgets. We may now see a period of reflection for the sector as investors refocus on pipeline conversion and margins. Avon has performed well but somewhat lagged the global sector. The

Oxford BioDynamics+ (OBD, House at 34p) - Much to look forward to